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> one can macroBS longer than microBS, which is why we need to be careful on who to endow with centralized macro decisions. Taleb goes overboard sometimes, but he has been so great for calling BS on finance pseudo-science.
> But it is the first organic currency I'm guessing Taleb hasn't heard of Cowry shells [1]... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cowry#Human_use
Im pretty sure he means there is a central design with a distributed behavior on monetary policy. That is actually a very interesting thing as an economist. I would have loved to see Hayek and bitcoin in the same era..
Classic standardized commodity (e.g. metallic) currency has central design and distributed behavior.
Given that the name for the distributed actors key to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency comes from that for a key set of those responsible for supply of metallic currency, I’m kind of surprised that this could be overlooked.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.
I'm legitimately interested in cryptocurrency; I think it's a really cool idea. So what I'm hoping for is that everything goes as horribly wrong as possible, the price tanks, everyone's dreams are smashed, and all the bullshit takes disappear. At that point, the people who are interested in building something worthwhile will be the only ones who remain, and we can work in peace.
But no one would get rich quick, so it would probably never take off in the first place.
I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty. The guy is clearly smart, but I feel like he skips too many steps in his mental algebra and then misses his own mistakes altogether too often. >This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future. Here's a great example. Does it really, Nassim?
You should read Taleb until you understand the important part of his message is not to listen too much to people like Taleb.
He is one of my favorite authors, but I am unconvinced by nearly everything he has to say. He has this cult-leader style of "everyone else is wrong, but here, you can be part of the enlightened group" that I find somewhat grating, but more importantly, he simply does not provide "extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims."
Almost nothing he asserts is empirically testable due to his reliance on fat tails and Knightian uncertainty, and when it is, it either has not been empirically tested or the entire "traditional" industry is built around the empirical results. His response to this is generally of the form "systemic failures can dominate normal effects." [1]
In the cases where he leans on statistical modelling, especially modelling with fat tails, his writing breaks down. I find his approach at that point to feel sort of "baffle them with bullshit" in the sense that he is indifferent to whether it is even possible for the reader to understand what he is saying, once he has convinced himself.
[1] e.g., https://www.facebook.com/nntaleb/posts/10155509264828375
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There are plenty of local services for you to exchange cash for BTC. Yes, very big exchange rate, but you can find these easily enough.
I get charged in the US for using a non-BoA ATM by both banks for a total charge of $5 to $6. I would consider that a big fee if you are taking out $100 USD. BoA charges me a fee to send my landlord money even if it is a 3 business day period of $10. I lived overseas for 8 years, and you could move money between banks, send a friend lunch money right after lunch with no fee, pay your gas or electric bill at a 24/7 co…
This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…
What baffles me is the obsession over price. Nobody obsesses over USD/JPY, unless you’re a forex trader.
Rather than focusing on price, the focus should be on building new ideas with blockchain technology. Dapps are easier than ever to deploy with Truffle/web3.js[0] for example. You can come up with cool alternative governance models like Dash[1] has.
I’ve been following Bitcoin since 2010. It’s never been about price for me. It’s been about what cool things you can build with the technology.
"When you trade gold, you trade “loco” Hong Kong and end up receiving a claim on a stock there, which you might need to move to New Jersey. Banks control the custodian game and governments control banks (or, rather, bankers and government officials are, to be polite, tight together). So Bitcoin has a huge advantage over gold in transactions: clearance does not require a specific custodian. No government can control w…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.
I'm legitimately interested in cryptocurrency; I think it's a really cool idea. So what I'm hoping for is that everything goes as horribly wrong as possible, the price tanks, everyone's dreams are smashed, and all the bullshit takes disappear. At that point, the people who are interested in building something worthwhile will be the only ones who remain, and we can work in peace.
Because this has already happened in 2014-2016. It happened before that too. Each time the speculative bubble rises, it is being driven at first by improvements to the tech and/or ecosystem. Then it gets a life of its own, goes crazy, and runs out of gas. But along the way, more people learn about it and decide they care enough to continue the project.
Even if you are only in it for the money, the tech matters. Because the closer you are to the tech, the better you understand where the long term value will be, and when the price has outrun that value.
This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…
Thank you for putting words to an idea I've had for a while.
I agree that central banks are imperfect and that they sometimes abuse or just misuse their power. When they abuse the trust we place in them it creates real, specific problems. Cryptocurrencies have no trust, but they have even worse versions of the same specific problems.
This shouldn't be surprising. The entire reason we created central banks in the first place was precisely to attempt to manage these specific problems. The implicit argument is that centrally managing a currency isn't just imperfect and corrupt, but that it's so incredibly imperfect and corrupt as to be worse than nothing.
This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…
I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.
This is perhaps what separates libertarians from liberals, conservatives, socialists, etc.: we simply do not deny others the liberty we claim for ourselves.
If a monetary system that cannot be debased/controlled by government is available, does that not allow you to elect to create and/or join a community of similar beliefs? Or, would you prefer that I (or someone else) be able to gain control of your government, and then choose to make it (financially) impossible for you to choose your associations and/or behaviors?
Or, perhaps: does your "utopia" require others to fund it, in order for it to work? This is, unfortunately, the case with most people's personal beliefs. They require the non-consensual forced effort of others to succeed...