Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin • Hacker News Board

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#21

Post by rwmj » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:51 PM UTC

htormey wrote: post #13

"When you trade gold, you trade “loco” Hong Kong and end up receiving a claim on a stock there, which you might need to move to New Jersey. Banks control the custodian game and governments control banks (or, rather, bankers and government officials are, to be polite, tight together). So Bitcoin has a huge advantage over gold in transactions: clearance does not require a specific custodian. No government can control w…

Really though? Unless you're a millionaire you can store gold yourself - in a cheap bank deposit box or (if you're daring) even at home.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#22

Post by matthewbauer » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:53 PM UTC

ordinaryradical wrote: post #9

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

Yes definitely. If you replace "Bitcoin" in this essay with "blockchain based assets", Taleb would have a fairly good point. But "Bitcoin" has been manipulated so much that I think most people recognize that a crash is inevitable. There is nothing special about Bitcoin-anyone can start their own blockchain. Bitcoin is just an overpriced version of the infinite possible blockchains.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#23

Post by rdlecler1 » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:53 PM UTC

Governments could ban crypto sites, crypto trading, and conversion to currency. While this won’t completely kill it, it marginalizes it to such an extent that it won’t be an attractive medium for most folks because most people are lazy and don’t want the hassle.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#24

Post by at-fates-hands » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:55 PM UTC

coffeeacc wrote: post #11

ABCLAW wrote: post #8

I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty. The guy is clearly smart, but I feel like he skips too many steps in his mental algebra and then misses his own mistakes altogether too often. >This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future. Here's a great example. Does it really, Nassim?

Is the preceding sentence not useful? > But its mere existence is an insurance policy that will remind governments that the last object establishment could control, namely, the currency, is no longer their monopoly.

The only problem is what we're currently seeing. That yes, the government will do everything within its power to insert itself into the crypto currency market in order to control it.

Look at how the SEC is not only keeping tabs on crypto currencies, but are monitoring ICO's and bringing charges against people they feel are committing fraud. It's been pointed out before that although the SEC can't stop CC's, then can effectively sideline them as a niche offering to investors.

I guess this is the beauty and beast of CC's right now. Yeah, it's totally unregulated, but it's also rife with fraud. It's like people want it both to be safe and regulated while still outside the control of any government.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#25

Post by matthewbauer » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:56 PM UTC

yasp wrote: post #18

fra wrote: post #12

Sadly, NNT gets a key detail wrong: Bitcoin isn't controlled by its users, it's controlled by the miners.

And yet ultimately the users can move to a fork if they are unhappy. To wit: Bitcoin Cash, which is the true bitcoin. (With Bitcoin Cash, Nassim's coffeeshop transaction would indeed be possible, and without needing to wait for 10+ minutes, contrary to popular belief.)

No the miners are the ones that can fork if they are unhappy. Users are held hostage by the miners for any PoW cryptocurrency. If they want their holdings to be worth anything, they have to endlessly shill for their currency or else they'll go broke.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#26

Post by georgeecollins » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:56 PM UTC

> one can macroBS longer than microBS, which is why we need to be careful on who to endow with centralized macro decisions.

Taleb goes overboard sometimes, but he has been so great for calling BS on finance pseudo-science.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#27

Post by digi_owl » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:57 PM UTC

Changu wrote: post #19

I was hoping to read his thoughts on Bitcoins market cap of about 200 Billion Dollar. I have the theory, that the value of a cryptocurrency is equal to the sum of transaction fees people will spend in the future, discounted for inflation. Currently Bitcoin users pay about $5m per day on transaction fees. That is $1.82B per year. At this rate, it would take 109 years to reach those $200B. So by that logic, the market…

That sounds oddly similar to the notion that a national currency gets its value from having to pay taxes with it.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#28

Post by kbutler » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

simias wrote: post #20

eggy wrote: post #10

I hope Bitcoin perseveres. I missed the boat on buying it when it was valued at ~$200 USD. I am more into the decentralization of currency. I don't buy the fear-mongering. And today, I am even more resolved. Bank of America rejected my father trying to deposit $250 USD cash into my account at a local branch while I was out of town. They made him go home to get his checkbook to write a check (money order was an option…

I see many people complaining about the banking system (often for a good reason) and mention cryptocurrencies as an alternative but I'm not sure I see it. Take your anecdote for instance, what would be the equivalent in the crypto world? If you actually need to deposit fiat you'll have to use an exchange and it's basically the same problem (good luck getting an exchange to accept $250 in cash). Of course the whole th…

There are already more than 2000 bitcoin ATMs https://coinatmradar.com/

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#29

Post by splouk » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

tantalor wrote: post #17

coffeeacc wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is the preceding sentence not useful? > But its mere existence is an insurance policy that will remind governments that the last object establishment could control, namely, the currency, is no longer their monopoly.

Bitcoin is no more a currency than gold.

But he talked about that too...

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#30

Post by dxbydt » Tue, Jan 23, 2018, 5:58 PM UTC

ABCLAW wrote: post #8

I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty. The guy is clearly smart, but I feel like he skips too many steps in his mental algebra and then misses his own mistakes altogether too often. >This gives us, the crowd, an insurance policy against an Orwellian future. Here's a great example. Does it really, Nassim?

>I always feel bad when I read some of Taleb's work and come away empty

Took the words right out of my mouth. His recent thoughts/tweets on Deep Learning were even more confusing.