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Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

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Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#91

Post by simias »

pjkundert wrote: post #70
jgh wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

While claiming the principles of Liberty for yourself (deciding what kind of "utopia" you want to be part of), would you deny that choice to others? This is perhaps what separates libertarians from liberals, conservatives, socialists, etc.: we simply do not deny others the liberty we claim for ourselves. If a monetary system that cannot be debased/controlled by government is available, does that not allow you to elec…

I hope one day we'll perfect space travel and be able to colonize the galaxy. Then for quite a while we'll have so many planets and resources that every human being could destroy a planet every day and we'll still have no fear of running out.

In the unlikely situation where this happens and I'm alive to experience it, I'll be the most extremist libertarian you've ever seen. "You don't like this? Just create your own community on some planet a few light years from there and do your thing." Communists colonize their own little solar system, anarchists cohabitate in an other, fascists create the Germania consortium.

But that's not the world we live in currently. We're all stuck on the same speck of dust in the middle of an absurdly large ocean of empty space. So yeah, for now unfortunately it means we have to play nice with each other and compromise. Whether you like it or not you're part of a society.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#92

Post by jebeng »

matthewbauer wrote: post #22
ordinaryradical wrote: post #9

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

Yes definitely. If you replace "Bitcoin" in this essay with "blockchain based assets", Taleb would have a fairly good point. But "Bitcoin" has been manipulated so much that I think most people recognize that a crash is inevitable. There is nothing special about Bitcoin-anyone can start their own blockchain. Bitcoin is just an overpriced version of the infinite possible blockchains.

I think you have it backwards here for the most part.

What problems do you see infinite blockchains solving?

No comment on whether or not a crash is inevitable, who knows where the price is going. That's not really too important to me. But the fact that Bitcoin is for now the most secure and technologically sound blockchain is what makes it interesting. And actually having those unique characteristics is what makes it special. I definitely don't see much special with 'blockchain the data structure' on its own.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#93

Post by runeks »

fra wrote: post #12

Sadly, NNT gets a key detail wrong: Bitcoin isn't controlled by its users, it's controlled by the miners.

That’s a gross oversimplification. There are thousands of Bitcoin nodes running right now who verify that the miners are honest. Miners could refuse to include any transactions at all, but that would amount to a sort of constant denial-of-service attack, and could be resolved by moving to a new proof-of-work function (thus rendering all current Bitcoin mining hardware worthless).

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#94

Post by rwmj »

htormey wrote: post #85
rwmj wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really though? Unless you're a millionaire you can store gold yourself - in a cheap bank deposit box or (if you're daring) even at home.

True, but if you are going to be that paranoid how easy is it for you to take your gold across the border? “According to the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), it is legal to travel with any amount of cash or other monetary instruments in and out of the United States. However, you must declare your cash to customs if the amount exceeds $10,000 or its foreign equivalent.” http://traveltips.usatoday.com/trav…

If I had a need to do such things I'd probably hire a yacht or a light aircraft. Borders are very porous when you're not travelling in a "mainstream" mode of transport.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#95

Post by jgh »

runeks wrote: post #87
jgh wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I honestly hope the utopian dream is smashed in the cryptocurrency community. It's not the kind of "utopia" I want to be a part of. I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting.

> I like the technical ideas behind cryptocurrency, but the terrible political views are off-putting. Which political views? I read the article and only saw a view on money, not politics. What’s being criticized is the very idea that money should involve politics. The argument is that we should be as free to choose which kind of money we use as we are to choose which kind of car we use. There should be no law giving…

I wasn't referencing the article. There are a lot of people in the cryptocurrency community (spend some time in telegram rooms, reading blog posts, etc) that push a very libertarian/anarcho-capitalist agenda.

I obviously don't think anything is wrong with using alternative currencies, but I'm not sure that separation of currency and state can happen the same way separation of church and state has. Even if the government doesn't control the issuance of currency they will undoubtedly have an outsized influence on whatever currency they choose to support.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#96

Post by runeks »

rdlecler1 wrote: post #23

Governments could ban crypto sites, crypto trading, and conversion to currency. While this won’t completely kill it, it marginalizes it to such an extent that it won’t be an attractive medium for most folks because most people are lazy and don’t want the hassle.

Your conclusion very much depends on the prevailing rate of inflation for national currencies. The higher the rate, the greater the incentive to move your savings to somewhere safe.

In other words, the incentive may not be that great right now (since the inflation rate is relatively low), but this is something that can change.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#97

Post by rmah »

ShabbosGoy wrote: post #66
ordinaryradical wrote: post #9

This utopian streak running through the crypto community is what convinces me most that it’s going to be a heartbreaker. > But Hayek used the notion of distributed knowledge. Well, it looks like we do not even need that thing called knowledge for things to work well. Nor do we need individual rationality. All we need is structure. Irrational exuberance is a good thing! And while these ideologues are busy demonizing t…

> And while these ideologues are busy demonizing the central banks a handful of individuals manipulate bitcoin to levels a central bank could never even attempt... What baffles me is the obsession over price. Nobody obsesses over USD/JPY, unless you’re a forex trader. Rather than focusing on price, the focus should be on building new ideas with blockchain technology. Dapps are easier than ever to deploy with Truffle/…

How is this baffling? 99% of people who buy bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies don't care about freedom, disrupting the financial system or any of that other ideological issues. They simply want to make money (USD, EUR, JPY, what have you).

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#98

Post by platz »

pjkundert wrote: post #83
jgh wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is perhaps what separates libertarians from liberals, conservatives, socialists, etc.: we simply do not deny others the liberty we claim for ourselves. Oh cut the self-aggrandizing horse-shit. Libertarianism is 100% about denying others liberty while taking as much as you can for yourself. > If a monetary system that cannot be debased/controlled by government is available, does that not allow you to elect to c…

I think we probably agree on most things re: utopia, cryptocurrencies vs. gov't control. I'm not sure about your claim that valuing liberty for myself and others is about "taking as much as you can for yourself", though...

you guys, what even is "liberty".

if in in fact you are referring to competing for resources in a zero-sum game, that is a different thing than say, Free Speech.

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#99

Post by tenaciousDaniel »

adwhit wrote: post #63
tenaciousDaniel wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm legitimately interested in cryptocurrency; I think it's a really cool idea. So what I'm hoping for is that everything goes as horribly wrong as possible, the price tanks, everyone's dreams are smashed, and all the bullshit takes disappear. At that point, the people who are interested in building something worthwhile will be the only ones who remain, and we can work in peace.

Is there an altcoin which is indefinitely and exponentionally inflationary? Such a coin would not have the gold-rush/ponzi characteristics which bitcoin has, and there wouldn't be a such huge incentive to mine new coins so hopefully it would avoid the incredibly wasteful mining arms race. But no one would get rich quick, so it would probably never take off in the first place.

I know of only two: Tether and Dai

https://tether.to/

https://makerdao.com

Re: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Author of Black Swan, on Bitcoin

#100

Post by pandler »

kbutler wrote: post #28
simias wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I see many people complaining about the banking system (often for a good reason) and mention cryptocurrencies as an alternative but I'm not sure I see it. Take your anecdote for instance, what would be the equivalent in the crypto world? If you actually need to deposit fiat you'll have to use an exchange and it's basically the same problem (good luck getting an exchange to accept $250 in cash). Of course the whole th…

There are already more than 2000 bitcoin ATMs https://coinatmradar.com/

For what it’s worth, I’ve come across maybe 5 bitcoin atms and they’ve all been out of service or completely unplugged. I’ve never actually seen one on and operational.
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