Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#191

Post by pakitan » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:33 PM UTC

unit91 wrote: post #157

oculusthrift wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

> it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion Is that true? $100 is such a small amount of money that you're completely at the mercy of the supply chain. When you have $100B to spend, you are the supply chain (or at least a major part of it). Big money always makes the rules. They're either making money off of you now or planning to in the future. Now you might say, "but wait, plenty of prod…

You're talking about power, oculusthrift is talking about capacity. Of course big money has the power. But spending that big money in a non-wasteful way is a very hard job. What would you do if you were the head of Ford and had $100B to spend? Build more plants to manufacture more cars? You won't have who to sell them to. Easiest way out is to buy other companies, which is what big money usually do.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#192

Post by Thaxll » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:33 PM UTC

abakker wrote: post #94

Of the major automakers, Toyota probably has the furthest behind ICE platforms. The 5.7L V8 and the 4.6L v6 are 10 years old, and very fuel inefficient compared to the the engines from ford or GM. I think that Toyota really has the most to fear in this case, since they haven't had any success bringing out more efficient ICE/Drivetrains to match the competition, and haven't really managed to scale the hybrid efficienc…

And yet they ship 10M+ cars/year.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#193

Post by samstave » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:35 PM UTC

Spooky23 wrote: post #48

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

The market makes mistakes over value all of the time. Look at the sad tale of post-bankruptcy Kmart, and how they used hype, valuation and newly available credit to gobble up Sears. Predicable trainwreck ensued. Tesla is alike and different. They have an amazing management team, Apple-like religious fervor/hype machine, but a marginal product category. Their continued growth is only possible as long as they can convi…

Interesting comment. I'd say that the way they are convincing the public is with a very well engineered product line that is also a big fuck-you to big-oil. The only people that like big-oil are the people who work for and profit off big oil. Musks empire is growing in ways ford could only dream of.

People love the machines they make.

Ford can add body stylings all they want, but they can't match tesla or spacex or solar city.

I just don't think they have it in their DNA - I'm actually surprised we haven't heard of any of the big three going all out attempting to acquire tesla.

What would be a very interesting event would be when Tessa builds a long haul delivery truck/trucks in general. There is no way they haven't thought of a general platform chassis which can have modular tops put on them.

Wouldn't it be great if tesla sold a chassis to boutique shops like there were in the 20s...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#194

Post by zip1234 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:35 PM UTC

awj wrote: post #63

John23832 wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future. Companies seek to outperform themselves relative to the last quarter and year. Long term strategy like this takes a backseat, if it gets attention at all. It certainly doesn't get the luxury of a whole company pivot that could tank short term value. Need proof? Look at all of the American companies that got caught with their pants down shipping nothing but bigger SUVs when…

If you were running one of those companies, would you sell SUVs that make you 10k in profit each or an equal number of small cars that make 2k in profit each?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#195

Post by seanmcdirmid » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:37 PM UTC

pbtflakes wrote: post #190

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Market perception. Ford's P/E ratio is 9.89. IBM's P/E ratio is 14.02. Facebook's P/E ratio is 40.79. Tesla's P/E ratio is infinity since the E is negative. I'm sure Ford has done many incremental innovations, I didn't say they didn't. IBM does the same thing, and has "record profits" every few years also. Its just the market isn't expecting the next big thing to come from Ford, while they are expecting that from Tes…

That's not how the math works out, according to Nasdaq.com Tesla's P/E was -53.63 for 2016 and estimated -103.48 for 2017.

Sorry I guess. I couldn't find Tesla's P/E ratio on Google like I could for the other companies. It is my understanding that they don't report P/E ratios for companies with negative earnings.

And it makes sense: a high P/E ratio indicates high potential. The lower the earnings, the higher the P/E ratio. But if earnings went negative, then the P/E ratio would automatically go negative (since that is how math works, as you say). So if my stock price is $100, and I earn $1, my P/E ratio is 100...so much potential! If I accidentally lost a dollar instead, my P/E ratio automatically becomes -100 even though not much changed in my earnings.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#196

Post by jnicholasp » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:38 PM UTC

youngtaff wrote: post #154

dkrich wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Ford have also been quite innovative in the engine department building small volume turbo charged engines for greater efficiency and lower emissions https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_EcoBoost_engine

Being innovative at small details of existing concepts isn't likely to produce huge gains in stock value, as opposed to being innovative at entire categories of new industry- and infrastructure-disrupting products. Ford does the former, Tesla does the latter, and the market is valuing them accordingly.

The market could be wrong, Tesla could fail to achieve their vision, Ford and other existing big companies could somehow turn themselves into organizations that aggressively pursue ambitious new visions.. but the market is betting not. You're welcome to make an opposing bet.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#197

Post by fizixer » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:39 PM UTC

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> ... market cap isn’t everything ...

Nothing is everything. That doesn't negate the fact that:

Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#198

Post by beamatronic » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:40 PM UTC

foofoo55 wrote: post #170

sqeaky wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An aluminum body is exactly the kind of iteration that was being talked about. It is neat, but its not and all new drive train on a totally different tech. Aluminium is a pretty well understood material, while self driving cars are virgin territory. Tesla is making larger swings and potentially accepting larger risk. Ford is... iterating.

I would much rather drive an iterated vehicle than one based on a large swing or risk.

But you can drive the latter in the car pool lane

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#199

Post by mbesto » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:41 PM UTC

John23832 wrote: post #74

mbesto wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. I guess you could say the same for Kodak, Blockbuster, and Borders? “The reason is that good management itself was the root cause. Managers played the game the way it was supposed to be played. The very decision-making and resource-allocation processes that a…

I've read the book. None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

> None of those companies would even acknowledge their competition. Ford/GM/all other ICE companies acknowledge both Tesla, and the fact that there is a clear runway on oil.

Source?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#200

Post by gph » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:41 PM UTC

thinkling wrote: post #158

mvpu wrote: post #144

Comparing Tesla with Ford is like comparing Ford with (GM + Shell + Hertz). Tesla is an energy company not an automobile company. It plans to sell you new ways to capture (solar panels), store (power wall), and consume (cars) energy. It also plans to make cars fully autonomous and ownership free. Ford will obviously compete with Tesla in some segments is not a primary competition for Tesla.

What you said is correct but immediately raises the question "what's the value of that integration?" Obviously GM and Shell have been successful and profitable without being integrated, and it's not clear that merging would yield them advantages. Why do these advantages exist in the electric energy arena?

This is just my opinion, but I think long term Tesla will lose out on solar panels to cheaper more focused competition.

But they seem to be leading the way in battery production and self-driving automobiles. If they can hold on to market lead in those two areas then they should still be able to way outpace Ford or other car manufacturers. Big IF though in terms of self-driving technology with all the other big money players racing for that grail. Energy storage and battery production they seem to be in a class of their own without much competition.