Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value • Hacker News Board

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#151

Post by Avshalom » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:07 PM UTC

stellar678 wrote: post #11

John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

An electric f150 is kind of the dream actually. Electric is great for fleet vehicles and it has all the low end torque your frame can handle. Plus trucks have plenty of space to put batteries, under the bed, between the bed and the cab, that can be nice and rectangular. Electric drive train means more effective ground clearance for a given ride height too because you don't need a drive shaft or exhaust. Regenerative brakes are probably better than engine braking too, at least from a wear and tear perspective.

Start with a hybrid Ranger billed as "torque+" marketing slogan "it'll tow a mountain"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#152

Post by strombofulous » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:07 PM UTC

sxates wrote: post #140

I think these comparison's to other car companies really miss the mark. Those who are long on TSLA (myself included) aren't looking at them as a car company. Tesla is cracking open new markets in the following areas: - Electric Cars (most visible. Also don't undervalue their unique direct sales channel, which is a huge competitive advantage) - Batteries/Energy Storage (not just cars - utility scale energy storage, wi…

What makes you think solar is a hockey stick? I'm not saying you're wrong it's just the first time I've heard this before.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#153

Post by thinkling » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:07 PM UTC

John23832 wrote: post #7

adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

I highly recommend Wired's article about GM's long-term bet in developing the Bolt. It talks about many ways that developing an electric car is not just a matter of adding batteries to your existing expertise in car manufacturing.

e.g.:

> Nearly everything changes when you opt for a fundamentally different power train, so GM’s greatest advantage—more than a century of experience building cars—was all but moot. Car structure was different, since they were building around a battery, not an engine. The brakes, steering, and air conditioner were powered differently. New systems, from electromagnetics for the motors to onboard and off-board charging, each came with its own learning curve. The engineers didn’t have established tests to follow. Just turning on the car required finding the perfect sequence of electrical signals from more than a dozen modules. “Oh my God, it took us forever to get the first Volt to start,” Fletcher says.

https://www.wired.com/2016/01/gm-electric-car-chevy-bolt-mar...

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#154

Post by youngtaff » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:09 PM UTC

dkrich wrote: post #126

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is like comparing a spunky startup to an entrenched corporation. Ya, IBM once spent more than Facebook, but Facebook was worth more because it had potential while IBM didn't. Ford doesn't have any good ideas for the future, they are too busy with the here and now and haven't shown an ability to do anything but incremental improvements with their R&D spending. Like we don't expect much more from IBM, we don't expec…

What is this based on? Ford has had record profits over the past few years and has continually improved their vehicles and manufacturing processes, including remaking two assembly plants to make aluminum body F 150s. They also invested a billion dollars in Arvo AI and are making aggressive moves into self driving technology.

Ford have also been quite innovative in the engine department building small volume turbo charged engines for greater efficiency and lower emissions

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_EcoBoost_engine

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#155

Post by jread » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:09 PM UTC

Arizhel wrote: post #127

jread wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aside from batteries, supercharger network, and any true desire to actually build nice electric cars. I drove an electric Ford Focus for 2 years, and it was an absolute terrible afterthought of an electric car. It was downright dangerous on wet surfaces with front wheel drive and batteries in the rear, not to mention the horrendous user experience that is Ford Sync. I drive a Tesla now and couldn't be happier.

>not to mention the horrendous user experience that is Ford Sync. Well that's what you get for buying a car that has Microsoft software running in the infotainment system. The MS-designed Sync system had all kinds of terrible reviews at the time, and it was so bad that it brought Ford way, way down in the "initial quality" surveys, from #1 down to near the bottom IIRC. Do you not do any research before spending a gia…

It was a 2 year lease, $239/mo - and California gave a $2500 rebate also, so cost and risk were low. I wanted to try electric and couldn't afford a Tesla at the time.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#156

Post by owenversteeg » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:10 PM UTC

sergiosgc wrote: post #104

pc86 wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because Tesla's cars are not "hugely complicated contraption[s] made up of hundreds of mechanical parts?"

To a much lesser degree. An electric engine is a lot simpler, mechanically, than an ICE. To the point that, I think, major malfunctions will result in replacement of the engine instead of fixing engine components. Given good refurbishment logistics, this is much more efficient.

Ehhhh. I work with batteries and have worked with electric engines in the past. When an ICE vehicle breaks down, or doesn't work, or goes fast, or goes slow, we know why. With batteries and electric engines, when stuff doesn't work... nobody really knows why.

Copied from another comment I made on HN:

Nobody really understands lithium-ion batteries. One production run might have substantially higher or lower capacity. Some batteries might explode. Some batteries are high discharge and some are low discharge. The "explanation" for all of these things is 'heat'.

Imagine that happening to any other industry (for example the auto industry.)

- "Why did my car just explode!?" "Heat"

- "Why does this car last a tenth the lifetime of this car?" "Heat"

- "Why does this car go a thousand times faster than any others?" "Heat"

- "Why is this entire production run of cars not working?" "Heat"

People say "heat" for two reasons: 1) because nobody understands li-ion batteries and 2) because yes, the real answer does have something to do with heat.

Batteries are one of the most important industries and critical to every company on HN. But the state of the art of batteries is putting together random metals with a bunch of random chemicals and watching which ones don't explode.

Imagine talking to the CEO of Boeing: "We just did our millionth test, engines made of cheese and wings made of coconut shells. It crashed during takeoff, of course. We haven't had any improvements in over a decade, but we're sure we'll get there eventually - we've spent billions on research so far. Wanna come watch test 1,000,001? We're trying engines made of cheese and potato-chip wings next!"

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#157

Post by unit91 » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:11 PM UTC

oculusthrift wrote: post #79

crabasa wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Ford: "We have no idea how to invest this money. I guess let's just put it in the bank." Tesla: "We have so many idea for investments, we're only constrained by cash. Let's go back to the capital markets!"

except ford is spending an order of magnitude more than tesla. it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion. I also hope you're willing to level the same charge at Google and Apple.

> it's much easier to spend 100 dollars meaningfully than a 100 billion

Is that true? $100 is such a small amount of money that you're completely at the mercy of the supply chain. When you have $100B to spend, you are the supply chain (or at least a major part of it). Big money always makes the rules. They're either making money off of you now or planning to in the future.

Now you might say, "but wait, plenty of products/companies have done poorly because I wouldn't give them that $100." But that's not true. In reality, product success is always in terms of big money -- it's just spread out over enough consumers who individually have the $100 buy/don't-buy option.

Another objection: "yeah, but I always hear about big money wasting $30M (for example) on something stupid." Maybe so, but remember the scale. $30M waste on $100B is the same as $0.03 on $100. Moreover, the stupid thing they're wasting money on may not be that stupid -- you just might not be privy to all the details.

All that may sound like it's bad, but I think it's pretty great system. I sell my products at a markup to get small money, then have the discretion to buy or not buy somebody else's stuff with the money I made. En masse, I form a part of the "big money" consumer group at Home Depot, Amazon, etc. that has power over the more centralized big money.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#158

Post by thinkling » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:11 PM UTC

mvpu wrote: post #144

Comparing Tesla with Ford is like comparing Ford with (GM + Shell + Hertz). Tesla is an energy company not an automobile company. It plans to sell you new ways to capture (solar panels), store (power wall), and consume (cars) energy. It also plans to make cars fully autonomous and ownership free. Ford will obviously compete with Tesla in some segments is not a primary competition for Tesla.

What you said is correct but immediately raises the question "what's the value of that integration?" Obviously GM and Shell have been successful and profitable without being integrated, and it's not clear that merging would yield them advantages. Why do these advantages exist in the electric energy arena?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#159

Post by skoocda » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:11 PM UTC

abakker wrote: post #94

Of the major automakers, Toyota probably has the furthest behind ICE platforms. The 5.7L V8 and the 4.6L v6 are 10 years old, and very fuel inefficient compared to the the engines from ford or GM. I think that Toyota really has the most to fear in this case, since they haven't had any success bringing out more efficient ICE/Drivetrains to match the competition, and haven't really managed to scale the hybrid efficienc…

In the truck/SUV/CUV segment, the engines are dated- sure. But that segment barely exists in other markets, at least compared to small cars. Particularly in Europe and Asia.

Regardless, I don't think it's a tech issue, but rather an image issue. Trying to sell hybrid trucks to Americans is like trying to feed boiled spinach to kids.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#160

Post by youngtaff » Mon, Apr 03, 2017, 5:11 PM UTC

cmarschner wrote: post #22

John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford (and all the other car companies) has also huge liabilities - a huge supply chain and R&D costs around combustion engines, and costly dealerships that revolve around servicing a hugely complicated contraption made up of hundreds of mechanical parts. Much of this will be of zero value in the near future.

Don't underestimate the value of dealerships, Tesla took two months to replace a friends cracked windscreen