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Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#61

Post by drzaiusapelord »

dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

and... this is how bubbles happen. Investors and fans say "but, but my stock isn't overvalued! Mine is the exception, its everyone else who is in the bubble!"

There's no sane scenario where a car company that sells cars in the tens of thousands over-values a car company that sells cars in the millions.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#62

Post by unlmtd »

If I actually trusted the derivative counterparties to remain solvent, I'd reopen a trading to put a long short strategy on this. Everybody seems so have missed the glaring fact that the electric transport isn't going to go anywhere; the lucky ones will have good bi/tricycles, or horse/mules and cart. Motorized transport wasn't a product of humanity's sheer desire for it! It was only caused by the incomparably immense oversupply of energy from fossil fuels, which was a one-off. We can just pray that the transition won't destroy us. Electric lights and computer networks would be nice to salvage out of it. Did you think you'd never use a 100mhz CPU again? The suckless guys have the right idea; we need more efficiency and standardization, not bigger frameworks running on faster chips. I want a 500mW workstation with relatively fast e-ink like display. I'd sell billions of em. Sell your (e)cars, buy yourselves nice bicycles. You won't regret it.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#63

Post by awj »

John23832 wrote: post #16
stellar678 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is why Ford is unlikely to succeed at pivoting into the electric car market. The power and pull inside their company doesn't want them to. It will take superhuman leadership to overcome that force.

That makes no sense. Companies seek to be viable in the future. If Ford or GM feel that an electric car is on the horizon and that car will eat their (ICE) lunch, they will pivot. By your logic Tesla would have been locked out of the VC/investment market due to Big Oil. Money flows like water.

> Companies seek to be viable in the future.

Companies seek to outperform themselves relative to the last quarter and year. Long term strategy like this takes a backseat, if it gets attention at all. It certainly doesn't get the luxury of a whole company pivot that could tank short term value.

Need proof? Look at all of the American companies that got caught with their pants down shipping nothing but bigger SUVs when the price of oil shot up back in 2008.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#64

Post by franciscop »

rebootthesystem wrote: post #32

My prediction has always been that all traditional car manufacturers will jump into the market with gusto at the next inflection point in battery technology. The current state of the art battery technology for vehicles is heavy and has less than desirable energy density. The minute a new technology can deliver twice the energy density at the same or lower weight and lower cost most established car manufacturers will…

I don't really know about the gigafactory, but it seems logic that a % of it is dedicated to R&D and growth. Plus, this battery tech doesn't create itself, if I remember reading correctly Tesla is making some advancements in here as well.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#65

Post by jernfrost »

rebootthesystem wrote: post #32

My prediction has always been that all traditional car manufacturers will jump into the market with gusto at the next inflection point in battery technology. The current state of the art battery technology for vehicles is heavy and has less than desirable energy density. The minute a new technology can deliver twice the energy density at the same or lower weight and lower cost most established car manufacturers will…

When that change comes the other players will have the problem that they too will need to build some sort of Gigafactory. There is no way they can do a rushed attack against Tesla on this. These guys are slow movers not willing to take big risks. When this battery technology switch happens I am pretty sure Tesla will actually be the first to move. They will have more experience with large scale battery production than the competition.

It isn't just about cells but putting them together and designing a whole battery, with cooling and everything. Tesla knows very well how to do this. The competition doesn't.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#66

Post by iaw »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #3
dan1234 wrote: post #2

Interesting, but market cap isn’t everything - FTA: "While Tesla’s market capitalization has swelled in size, Ford still overshadows the Palo Alto, California-based company in most other financial metrics. Over the last five years, Ford has posted net income totaling $26 billion, while Tesla has lost $2.3 billion. Last year, Ford had annual revenue of $151.8 billion compared with Tesla’s $7 billion. And when it comes…

> And when it comes to car sales, Tesla sold 40,697 vehicles in the U.S. last year, according to researcher IHS Markit. Ford sells that many F-Series trucks in the U.S. about every three weeks." How much stationary energy storage did Ford sell last year? "Tesla CTO: our energy storage is growing as fast as we can humanly scale it [Gallery of new Powerpack station]" https://electrek.co/2017/01/30/tesla-cto-energy-stor…

More than Tesla: http://www.fordpower.cc/products.aspx?cateid=18

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#67

Post by chefandy »

mikeash wrote: post #43
chefandy wrote: post #27

Wasn't overvaluing the potential of newer companies over established institutions with significant holdings one of the hallmarks of .com bubble ridiculousness? I'm not particularly knowledgeable about finance and economics– if someone that is knowledgeable has some insight, I'd love to hear it.

Totally. Just look at the ridiculous valuations here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble#List_of_compani... On the other hand, there were some major successes as well. Amazon got its start in the bubble and is now gigantic. eBay is doing great. So is PayPal (which is relevant here, since without PayPal we wouldn't have Tesla). Sometimes these ridiculous valuations are completely unjustified, but sometimes t…

So is it the overall volume of overvaluations which was bad? Are we in a similar position now?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#68

Post by s0rce »

blhack wrote: post #42
John23832 wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

The piece of the puzzle that Ford doesn't currently have is charging stations. Tesla building its supercharger network was a brilliant move because it means that Teslas are comparable to most petrol-fuel vehicles (as far as where you can go), and everybody else isn't. If I buy a Ford, can I drive it to see my family in Northern Minnesota[1]? Because I know that I can take a tesla. That's a really big deal. I know the…

Big gap in Northwest Nevada/Southeast Oregon too, although quite remote, a fun place to drive. I'll stick with my ICE for now.

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#69

Post by stcredzero »

John23832 wrote: post #7
adamnemecek wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Investors invest based on promise of future value. How much is Ford expected to grow?

If they can properly pivot into the electric car market, a lot. Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get). They know how to mass produce cars (granted right now, ICE cars). That's not an easy feat. They have a large manufacturing and maintenance base that, frankly, Tesla can't r…

Ford has all the infrastructure that Tesla is attempting to build now (aside from the batteries, but that is something that Ford could easily partner with another manufacture to get).

If that is done so "easily," why is Tesla building a Gigafactory?

The bet is that Tesla will be the first successful company to market, or that they will hold some patents which will prove valuable in the future.

Patents? Have you been following?

Re: Tesla Passes Ford by Market Value

#70

Post by Taek »

What this says to me is that the stock asset class is broken. The value of a stock is supposed to be the amount of earnings you are expected to receive from it over its lifetime (adjusted according to the risk free rate or whatever).

But today a stock's value can be influenced by a cool factor. Stocks that never pay any earnings can have high values (Amazon) and investor mania can out-live any attempted short.

There has to be a better way to set up the market.

What if stock had an expiration, after which you had to buy it again? And what if, when you short a stock, you get the full face value of the stock and then only have to pay the owner the earnings? Since the stock expires, you don't have to worry about covering both the earnings and the stock price, only the actual earnings.

I think the result would be pricings that more accurately represented a company's earnings potential.

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