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When oil is no longer in demand

economist.com

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Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#61

Post by throwaway5752 »

th-ai wrote: post #51
msandford wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy. No, but if you're willing to spend a lot of energy you can pull CO2 out of the air and use it as a feedstock to make various fuels or plastics. Right now I think you'd have to burn 10 gallons of oil to make a single gallon so that's not efficient at all. But if you literally had more solar than you knew what to do with (like Germany does on occasion) you could u…

https://www.newlight.com/company claims to produce plastic from CO2 for less cost than from oil https://youtu.be/GlPyDLGKYSQ?t=1m15s

"After 10 years of research and development, Newlight has commercialized a carbon capture technology that combines air with methane-based greenhouse gas emissions to produce a plastic material"

Rather than using natural gas as a plastics feedstock, they are using methane from organic sources (livestock bioproducts, landfills, other agricultural waste). They are using "greenhouse gases" but not CO2.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#62

Post by 205guy »

Interesting that the Economist is looking at a future where oil demand is lower, but that realization hasn't hit the public yet, at least not in the US. I have been thinking about the Standing Rock protests in North Dakota, and they are objecting to the environmental risk of pipelines. But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used. Given electric cars, some fueled from solar power, there could really be a time soon in the US when the whole gasoline industry is reduced to almost nothing.

I think the concept is in the back of many poeple's mind, but the status quo is dominant and electric-everything on the road seems futuristic still. But as more and more people try electric cars and install solar panels, more people will see it and accept it as the new normal, and then things could change quickly, within 5 years perhaps.

And yes, this comment is intended to speed up that change.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#63

Post by tanderson92 »

205guy wrote: post #62

Interesting that the Economist is looking at a future where oil demand is lower, but that realization hasn't hit the public yet, at least not in the US. I have been thinking about the Standing Rock protests in North Dakota, and they are objecting to the environmental risk of pipelines. But in the big picture, oil is getting more expensive to extract, more dangerous to ship, and contributes to global warming then used…

So? It's still an environmental risk to their community at the present time. Oil's days being numbered must be cold comfort to them.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#64

Post by thirstysusrando »

Hubbert's Peak

"World oil production will start to fall sometime during this decade, never to rise again. In 1956, M. King Hubbert predicted that U.S. oil production would peak in the early 1970's. Although Hubbert was widely criticized by some oil experts and economists, in 1971 Hubbert's prediction came true. The 100 year period when most of the world's oil is being discovered became known as "Hubbert's Peak". The peak stands in contrast to the hundreds of millions of years the oil deposits took to form. Hubbert's methods predict a peak in world oil production less than five years away."

http://www.princeton.edu/hubbert/the-peak.html

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#65

Post by maxerickson »

edblarney wrote: post #48
edblarney wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc" Groundwater pollution and earthquakes are rare, and the latter are minor and have negligible impact. It's no more problematic than most other extraction industries. 'Above ground pipelines' are completely benign entities with almost zero environmental impact. Leaks are rare enough, and most of them are very minor and easy to clean up. Oil is an o…

I wouldn't want a coffee shop 'in my backyard' and I have nothing against coffee shops. But if I had to chose between an Oil Pipeline and a 'highway' - I (and I think most people) would chose the Oil Pipeline any day of the week. You do realize they are quite common? And that natural gas pipelines - which carry the same carbon-based materials run everywhere in urban areas - and that there's a good chance there is a g…

The Energy Information Agency has a nice map of them:

http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm

(turn off some layers to make it easier to look at)

I guess that's transportation pipelines and not distribution pipelines though.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#66

Post by pixl97 »

nostrademons wrote: post #46
edblarney wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

" like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc" Groundwater pollution and earthquakes are rare, and the latter are minor and have negligible impact. It's no more problematic than most other extraction industries. 'Above ground pipelines' are completely benign entities with almost zero environmental impact. Leaks are rare enough, and most of them are very minor and easy to clean up. Oil is an o…

Would you want one in your back yard?

My friend lived in house with an oil well in the back yard. Really wasn't noticeable after you got used to the noise it made. After a week I forgot it was there.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#67

Post by solarsavior »

I was wondering about this lately as I live in Houston in an area greatly dependent upon oil and gas. What happens when so many vehicles are charged by solar panels on rooftops (Tesla Energy)? What about oil and gas? Well, it turns out that tons of things are made from oil and gas and once we stop burning it to make vehicles go down the street, we can start using it for other things.

I'm unable to find the origin of the "burning Picassos for heat" quote, but it is catchy.

"An oil executive once observed that burning oil for energy is like burning Picassos for heat. Oil is extraordinarily valuable as the basis for so many products we use every day that the thought of simply burning it ought to be unthinkable. So versatile are oil molecules that they can be transformed into substances that serve as clothing, medicines, building materials, carpet, skin care products, sporting goods, agricultural chemicals, perfumes, and myriad other products."

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2012-11-04/burning-picasso...

I can foresee things like plastic wood being used to build all sorts of things.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#68

Post by edblarney »

maxerickson wrote: post #65
edblarney wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't want a coffee shop 'in my backyard' and I have nothing against coffee shops. But if I had to chose between an Oil Pipeline and a 'highway' - I (and I think most people) would chose the Oil Pipeline any day of the week. You do realize they are quite common? And that natural gas pipelines - which carry the same carbon-based materials run everywhere in urban areas - and that there's a good chance there is a g…

The Energy Information Agency has a nice map of them: http://www.eia.gov/state/maps.cfm (turn off some layers to make it easier to look at) I guess that's transportation pipelines and not distribution pipelines though.

That's a cool map. Pipelines are everywhere :). And yes, those don't include distribution which are nearly ubiquitous in many places.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#69

Post by maxerickson »

Spooky23 wrote: post #53
moomin wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're right. The price going down has, I think, more to do with the effect of fracking in the US. It's getting to the point that the US could be an exporter if it changed its laws. The effect of petro-states will be much the same, though.

More to do with the Saudis pumping more.

It lacks 2015 and 2016, but the huge ramp up in US production (which fracking has contributed to) has clearly been a big factor:

http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/index.cfm?view=product...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#70

Post by tachyonbeam »

melling wrote: post #6
izend wrote: post #3

Total World Consumption (2017 projection) : 96.92 million barrels per day (up from 92.58 million barrels in 2014) EIA outlook: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/world.cfm Oil will be in demand for a long time. The demand might peak but headlines like this seem to indicate oil isn't needed anymore. Most people do not realize that 6-7 million barrels of oil per day must be found year over year to replenish the depletion…

Yeah, it's crazy that people think oil is going away. We're 7 billion people on our way to 9 billion, with another billion in the next 15 years. That fossil free future that we dream about isn't getting any closer. Those big solar plants, etc that we read about are a rounding error.

China installed 20GW of solar in the first half of 2016. They are moving fast.
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