Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

When oil is no longer in demand

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

21–30 of 175 posts

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#21

Post by zzleeper »

gizmo686 wrote: post #8
peterjlee wrote: post #5

I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down while jet fuel demand will probably remain similar. So will that lead to a rise in jet fuel price?

Doubtful. Under basic economic theory, as demand goes down, so does price. The petroleum production that shuts down first will tend to be the most expensive production, causing a drop in the average cost, and price (we should see a similar effect in upstream products like crude). The main way this effect breaks down is if the market shrinks so much that we loose the economy of scale; but it seams unlikely demand will…

That was not his point. When you extract oil, you don't really get a single product but multiple ones (heavy oils, lubricants, etc.)

Before you might be selling lubricants cheaply, because after refinement you had lots of lubricants as a by-product. If you need less car fuel, this changes the cost equation and lubricants (and other byproducts) might become more expensive even if car fuel becomes cheaper.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#22

Post by wcummings »

melling wrote: post #6
izend wrote: post #3

Total World Consumption (2017 projection) : 96.92 million barrels per day (up from 92.58 million barrels in 2014) EIA outlook: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/world.cfm Oil will be in demand for a long time. The demand might peak but headlines like this seem to indicate oil isn't needed anymore. Most people do not realize that 6-7 million barrels of oil per day must be found year over year to replenish the depletion…

Yeah, it's crazy that people think oil is going away. We're 7 billion people on our way to 9 billion, with another billion in the next 15 years. That fossil free future that we dream about isn't getting any closer. Those big solar plants, etc that we read about are a rounding error.

This could change faster than you think, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot more solar in 50 years. Solar is now getting to the point it can compete w/ fossil fuels on price, w/o subsidies.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#23

Post by maxerickson »

peterjlee wrote: post #16
joshaidan wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or would it potentially increase the supply of Jet A (jet fuel), as less oil needs to be converted to automobile fuel.

Is the refining process flexible enough to do that? I was under the impression that refining is more of a separation process so the amount of each petroleum product you get is already determined by the petroleum you have before you even start the process.

There's all sorts of processes used to convert stuff.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cracking_(chemistry)

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#24

Post by pragone »

moomin wrote: post #9
melling wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's crazy that people think oil is going away. We're 7 billion people on our way to 9 billion, with another billion in the next 15 years. That fossil free future that we dream about isn't getting any closer. Those big solar plants, etc that we read about are a rounding error.

You're right. The price going down has, I think, more to do with the effect of fracking in the US. It's getting to the point that the US could be an exporter if it changed its laws. The effect of petro-states will be much the same, though.

The US, like everyone else in the world, will always be an oil exporter and an oil importer. The grades of oil differ throughout the world, and are used in different industries.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#25

Post by toomuchtodo »

wcummings wrote: post #22
melling wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's crazy that people think oil is going away. We're 7 billion people on our way to 9 billion, with another billion in the next 15 years. That fossil free future that we dream about isn't getting any closer. Those big solar plants, etc that we read about are a rounding error.

This could change faster than you think, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot more solar in 50 years. Solar is now getting to the point it can compete w/ fossil fuels on price, w/o subsidies.

12-16 years till solar is the dominant form of power generation at its current growth rate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics

There isn't anything to indicate that growth curve will slow; the manufacturing capacity is already in place, and more continues to be added. There are power purchase agreements at 2 cents/kWh, and I would not be surprised if you see prices below 1 cent/kwh in the next five years.

http://www.pv-tech.org/news/43695

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-03/solar-dev...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#26

Post by woofyman »

shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

Carrier is the latest recipient of a tax break.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-30/carrier-issues-stat...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#27

Post by coredog64 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #25
wcummings wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This could change faster than you think, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot more solar in 50 years. Solar is now getting to the point it can compete w/ fossil fuels on price, w/o subsidies.

12-16 years till solar is the dominant form of power generation at its current growth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics There isn't anything to indicate that growth curve will slow; the manufacturing capacity is already in place, and more continues to be added. There are power purchase agreements at 2 cents/kWh, and I would not be surprised if you see prices below 1 cent/kwh in the next five…

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#28

Post by graeme »

edblarney wrote: post #17
shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

'Tax breaks' are offered to all sorts of industries. Almost all entertainment in Canada for example, is done nearly tax free. Pharma, energy, small business etc. etc..

It's particularly perverse, however, to give tax breaks for an industry that has immense negative externalities.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#29

Post by coredog64 »

mjevans wrote: post #11
peterjlee wrote: post #5

I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down while jet fuel demand will probably remain similar. So will that lead to a rise in jet fuel price?

Probably temporarily. It'll likely cross a point where more synthetic production methods reach economic viability. The field requires such a great energy density that I suspect only a remarkable breakthrough in energy density for weight would allow a fully electric solution. Hydrogen is also likely out as the storage cells would be under unimaginable stresses. In the long term it might actually incentivize the creati…

Unless someone figures out how to bulldoze the Rocky mountain range, high speed rail as a replacement for coast to coast air travel is a non starter.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#30

Post by msandford »

coredog64 wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

12-16 years till solar is the dominant form of power generation at its current growth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics There isn't anything to indicate that growth curve will slow; the manufacturing capacity is already in place, and more continues to be added. There are power purchase agreements at 2 cents/kWh, and I would not be surprised if you see prices below 1 cent/kwh in the next five…

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

> Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

No, but if you're willing to spend a lot of energy you can pull CO2 out of the air and use it as a feedstock to make various fuels or plastics. Right now I think you'd have to burn 10 gallons of oil to make a single gallon so that's not efficient at all.

But if you literally had more solar than you knew what to do with (like Germany does on occasion) you could use that energy to make liquid fuels or plastics.

It's at least a decade and probably several decades off. But this is an economic problem, not a technical one.

Post reply on HN