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When oil is no longer in demand

economist.com

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Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#51

Post by th-ai »

msandford wrote: post #30
coredog64 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

> Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy. No, but if you're willing to spend a lot of energy you can pull CO2 out of the air and use it as a feedstock to make various fuels or plastics. Right now I think you'd have to burn 10 gallons of oil to make a single gallon so that's not efficient at all. But if you literally had more solar than you knew what to do with (like Germany does on occasion) you could u…

https://www.newlight.com/company claims to produce plastic from CO2 for less cost than from oil https://youtu.be/GlPyDLGKYSQ?t=1m15s

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#52

Post by [deleted] »

coredog64 wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

12-16 years till solar is the dominant form of power generation at its current growth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics There isn't anything to indicate that growth curve will slow; the manufacturing capacity is already in place, and more continues to be added. There are power purchase agreements at 2 cents/kWh, and I would not be surprised if you see prices below 1 cent/kwh in the next five…

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

[deleted]

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#53

Post by Spooky23 »

moomin wrote: post #9
melling wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it's crazy that people think oil is going away. We're 7 billion people on our way to 9 billion, with another billion in the next 15 years. That fossil free future that we dream about isn't getting any closer. Those big solar plants, etc that we read about are a rounding error.

You're right. The price going down has, I think, more to do with the effect of fracking in the US. It's getting to the point that the US could be an exporter if it changed its laws. The effect of petro-states will be much the same, though.

More to do with the Saudis pumping more.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#54

Post by [deleted] »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #41
coredog64 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

See http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use Total petroleum products: 19.531 (million barrels/day) Of which, deleting fuels, Asphalt and road oil 0.343 Petrochemical feedstocks 0.331 Lubricant 0.138 Miscellaneous products and others 0.089 Waxes 0.006 which sum to 0.907 If the oil industry existed solely for non-fuel uses, it would be extremely tiny, and probably entirely domestic. It would not be la…

[deleted]

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#55

Post by btilly »

shanemhansen wrote: post #4

I live in Utah and I can tell you exactly what happens when oil is no longer in demand. They offer numerous tax breaks per well to encourage exploration and increase production. I believe the term is "corporate welfare". One of the tax breaks has a stated goal of providing tax relief when oil prices are low. https://oilgas.ogm.utah.gov/pub/Publications/Lists/tax_incen... This is the same government attempting to roll…

I agree that this is a stupid policy, but there is some attempt at logic behind it.

Oil production has the problem that increasing in oil production requires spending money that will only pay off if the price of oil remains high for several years. Cheap producers like Saudi Arabia know this, and so try to make the price fluctuate with enough lows to wipe out expensive oil producers, and enough highs to get rich themselves. More marginal properties would make money, but it is hard to survive the lows.

Therefore government policy that produces an effective price floor encourages the production of otherwise marginal oil. This is effectively a bet that increased tax revenue from future production is worth the risk of that tax guarantee. And in the short run you get an increase in jobs for no actual outlay of resources. Which is a trick any politician can appreciate.

That said, it remains a bad policy. Once implemented, lobbying efforts are virtually guaranteed to expand government support until the public is guaranteed to lose money. Doubly so because oil producers can now play one government off against another in a race to see who can offer more. (Sports teams have mastered that particular game...)

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#56

Post by throwaway5752 »

izend wrote: post #3

Total World Consumption (2017 projection) : 96.92 million barrels per day (up from 92.58 million barrels in 2014) EIA outlook: http://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/world.cfm Oil will be in demand for a long time. The demand might peak but headlines like this seem to indicate oil isn't needed anymore. Most people do not realize that 6-7 million barrels of oil per day must be found year over year to replenish the depletion…

And plastics.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#57

Post by sbov »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #41
coredog64 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

See http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use Total petroleum products: 19.531 (million barrels/day) Of which, deleting fuels, Asphalt and road oil 0.343 Petrochemical feedstocks 0.331 Lubricant 0.138 Miscellaneous products and others 0.089 Waxes 0.006 which sum to 0.907 If the oil industry existed solely for non-fuel uses, it would be extremely tiny, and probably entirely domestic. It would not be la…

That chart seems odd. From what I'm aware of, not all parts of "oil" are used for the same thing. E.g. before the internal combustion engine, gasoline was an unwanted byproduct of creating kerosene, and was usually dumped into the environment by refiners.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#58

Post by XorNot »

hkmurakami wrote: post #50

As the developing world develops, demand for petroleum based products (plastics, and even some paper products) will certainly rise, even if power plants and transportation moves away from fossil fuels. Demand will never go to zero even if our energy needs our met renewably. I wonder what the ratios will be though.

Usage in plastics is a tiny highly substitutable use compared to fuels.

A realignment where it becomes a buyer's market for oil will be a massive change to the status quo.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#59

Post by throwaway5752 »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #41
coredog64 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

See http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use Total petroleum products: 19.531 (million barrels/day) Of which, deleting fuels, Asphalt and road oil 0.343 Petrochemical feedstocks 0.331 Lubricant 0.138 Miscellaneous products and others 0.089 Waxes 0.006 which sum to 0.907 If the oil industry existed solely for non-fuel uses, it would be extremely tiny, and probably entirely domestic. It would not be la…

"Petrochemical feedstocks" means plastic and Haber process nitrogenous fertilizers. Lubricants is probably substantially motor oils, but even Teslas have gearboxes and sealed parts (stearing, suspension, etc) that require lubricant. Same for general industry (regardless of input energy source).

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#60

Post by maxerickson »

sbov wrote: post #57
JulianMorrison wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

See http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use Total petroleum products: 19.531 (million barrels/day) Of which, deleting fuels, Asphalt and road oil 0.343 Petrochemical feedstocks 0.331 Lubricant 0.138 Miscellaneous products and others 0.089 Waxes 0.006 which sum to 0.907 If the oil industry existed solely for non-fuel uses, it would be extremely tiny, and probably entirely domestic. It would not be la…

That chart seems odd. From what I'm aware of, not all parts of "oil" are used for the same thing. E.g. before the internal combustion engine, gasoline was an unwanted byproduct of creating kerosene, and was usually dumped into the environment by refiners.

Modern refineries work a lot harder to shift their output towards the most valuable markets.

Look at all the steps with some output to gasoline on the right:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_refinery#Flow_diagram_of_t...

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