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When oil is no longer in demand

economist.com

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Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#41

Post by JulianMorrison »

coredog64 wrote: post #27
toomuchtodo wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

12-16 years till solar is the dominant form of power generation at its current growth rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics There isn't anything to indicate that growth curve will slow; the manufacturing capacity is already in place, and more continues to be added. There are power purchase agreements at 2 cents/kWh, and I would not be surprised if you see prices below 1 cent/kwh in the next five…

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

See http://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=oil_use

  Total petroleum products: 19.531 (million barrels/day)
Of which, deleting fuels,

  Asphalt and road oil              0.343
  Petrochemical feedstocks          0.331
  Lubricant                         0.138
  Miscellaneous products and others 0.089
  Waxes                             0.006
which sum to 0.907

If the oil industry existed solely for non-fuel uses, it would be extremely tiny, and probably entirely domestic. It would not be large enough to fund any new deep or complex drilling, and nor would it be large enough to fund even the fixed costs of existing wells.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#42

Post by enraged_camel »

graeme wrote: post #28
edblarney wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

'Tax breaks' are offered to all sorts of industries. Almost all entertainment in Canada for example, is done nearly tax free. Pharma, energy, small business etc. etc..

It's particularly perverse, however, to give tax breaks for an industry that has immense negative externalities.

At the expense of cleaner, safer ones no less.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#43

Post by philipkglass »

maxerickson wrote: post #34
coredog64 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't make fertilizer or plastic out of solar energy.

There's a process for fixing nitrogen using electricity as the primary input: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birkeland%E2%80%93Eyde_process You can also plant nitrogen fixing plants and till them into the soil at the end of the season.

Even better, electrolyze water and run the hydrogen through a standard Haber-Bosch ammonia plant. It's a little more complicated but much more energy efficient. It's been done on an industrial scale in the past with electricity from hydropower.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#44

Post by edblarney »

monknomo wrote: post #36
edblarney wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil companies don't emit a whole lot of CO2. You emit the CO2 when you use your car (almost 50% of CO2 emissions are from autos). And a bunch of other industries are responsible for most of the rest of CO2 emissions.

I think you're missing the negative externalities inherent in oil extraction, like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc. Not to mention it's a little like saying Pablo Escobar doesn't OD on drugs or steal your TV very often, it's the crackheads that do that...

" like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc"

Groundwater pollution and earthquakes are rare, and the latter are minor and have negligible impact. It's no more problematic than most other extraction industries.

'Above ground pipelines' are completely benign entities with almost zero environmental impact. Leaks are rare enough, and most of them are very minor and easy to clean up. Oil is an organic product, found commonly in nature, and small amounts of Oil spilled have no real impact. Unlike the big tanker spills, which can be devastating.

The highway you drive your car on has considerably more environmental footprint than any 'above ground pipeline'.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#45

Post by GregBuchholz »

peterjlee wrote: post #5

I wonder what will happen to the price of jet fuel once electric cars are wide spread. Petroleum production will go down as demand for gasoline will go down while jet fuel demand will probably remain similar. So will that lead to a rise in jet fuel price?

Electric aircraft.

https://machineroadmap.ece.illinois.edu/files/2016/04/Madava...

http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/0953-2048/20/8/005...

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#46

Post by nostrademons »

edblarney wrote: post #44
monknomo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're missing the negative externalities inherent in oil extraction, like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc. Not to mention it's a little like saying Pablo Escobar doesn't OD on drugs or steal your TV very often, it's the crackheads that do that...

" like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc" Groundwater pollution and earthquakes are rare, and the latter are minor and have negligible impact. It's no more problematic than most other extraction industries. 'Above ground pipelines' are completely benign entities with almost zero environmental impact. Leaks are rare enough, and most of them are very minor and easy to clean up. Oil is an o…

Would you want one in your back yard?

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#47

Post by edblarney »

thatcat wrote: post #39
edblarney wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil companies don't emit a whole lot of CO2. You emit the CO2 when you use your car (almost 50% of CO2 emissions are from autos). And a bunch of other industries are responsible for most of the rest of CO2 emissions.

Even if they don't use much, they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it.

"they tend to spill a lot which is worse than burning it."

Both parts are not correct.

First, they spill very little in the grand scheme of things.

Second, an 'oil spill' unless it's quite large, is not a hugely damaging thing for the environment. Oil is a plentiful, organic material, found everywhere in nature. It's just not concentrated enough in most places to be extracted.

The soil in northern Alberta (an area the size of Florida) is literally oozing with hydrocarbons - same for Venezuela and many other places. Nobody considers those parts of the world 'toxic' - they are otherwise normal places.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#48

Post by edblarney »

edblarney wrote: post #44
monknomo wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're missing the negative externalities inherent in oil extraction, like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc. Not to mention it's a little like saying Pablo Escobar doesn't OD on drugs or steal your TV very often, it's the crackheads that do that...

" like groundwater pollution, earthquakes, above ground pipelines, etc" Groundwater pollution and earthquakes are rare, and the latter are minor and have negligible impact. It's no more problematic than most other extraction industries. 'Above ground pipelines' are completely benign entities with almost zero environmental impact. Leaks are rare enough, and most of them are very minor and easy to clean up. Oil is an o…

I wouldn't want a coffee shop 'in my backyard' and I have nothing against coffee shops.

But if I had to chose between an Oil Pipeline and a 'highway' - I (and I think most people) would chose the Oil Pipeline any day of the week.

You do realize they are quite common? And that natural gas pipelines - which carry the same carbon-based materials run everywhere in urban areas - and that there's a good chance there is a gas pipeline, literally, in your backyard right now?

If you are living in an urban area, my guess is there is an 80% chance there's a carbon-based pipeline within 500m from where you are.

Re: When oil is no longer in demand

#50

Post by hkmurakami »

As the developing world develops, demand for petroleum based products (plastics, and even some paper products) will certainly rise, even if power plants and transportation moves away from fossil fuels.

Demand will never go to zero even if our energy needs our met renewably. I wonder what the ratios will be though.

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