The Facebook bubble just popped • Hacker News Board

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#131

Post by downandout » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:18 PM UTC

gdulli wrote: post #115

downandout wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tom Brokaw was especially insulting to the half of the country that voted for Trump. After several comments about uneducated rednecks causing the downfall of our nation, he summed it up this way: "This election was much more about ‘Duck Dynasty’ than ‘Saturday Night Live’." Hell hath no fury like an elite liberal scorned.

That Trump won in large part due to disproportionate support from voters without a college degree is a plain fact worth being reported. Reading insult into it is discretionary.

So you're saying that half the country are racist rednecks (as Brokaw did). Got it. What you and Tom Brokaw are effectively saying is that one had to have been an idiot to either withhold a vote from or vote against Hillary, despite literally hundreds of perfectly valid reasons to do so.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#132

Post by xapata » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:19 PM UTC

jtsnow wrote: post #106

Jemaclus wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Technically, they did predict it: 538 had 35% chance of Trump winning and emphasized the uncertainty factor, while other outlets had Clinton's chances as high as 99%.

Nassim Taleb has rigorously shown that FiveThirtyEight did not accurately account for uncertainty in their models.

How does one accurately account for uncertainty?

If you're talking about Taleb's "black swan" style uncertainty, that's specifically the kind that cannot be taken into account.

If you're talking about events being correlated instead of independent, that's what set 538 apart from other poll-aggregators: Nate gave Trump a relatively high chance of winning, because a polling error in one state would likely indicate the same polling error in every other state.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#133

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:19 PM UTC

pmoriarty wrote: post #118

Alex3917 wrote: post #32

The biggest problem with our country isn't the people who voted for Trump, it's the people who are surprised that he won. For what it's worth, here is an email conversation about this that I submitted to HN before the election: https://www.fwdeveryone.com/t/e1rtmBSJR16mkcCRlqmWwQ/lifehac...

If you were cynical, you would have predicted that the United States, a country full of racists and bigots, would never elect a black man for President. But they did: twice. There were good reasons to predict that George W Bush, an embarrassing, arrogant, stupid buffoon who got the country in to two disastrous wars and failed to prevent 9/11, who had massive protests against him from all over the country would not ge…

[deleted]

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#134

Post by nkassis » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:19 PM UTC

sickbeard wrote: post #88

renaudg wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That also happened for Brexit before. And there are more western elections to come in the coming months (Italy, France) where this is likely to be a factor.

The reality is that not everyone wants open boarders and free trade and rights for all. Some.. actually about half of the people seem to reject this for some reason. That's the perception tilt that doesn't seem to be reflected in the media

"actually about half of the people seem to reject this for some reason." that was probably a small portion of those peoples views. This election is a lot of things, but they didn't seem to really care about the candidate himself. It's very bewildering that nothing negative seems to have affected their view of the man. He had as many votes as McCain in 2008 and a bit less than Romney in 2012. So he practically 0 republican votes (give or take some shifts) but didn't add any either.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#135

Post by 551199 » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

woodchuck64 wrote: post #87

551199 wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's predictions have been hilariously wrong about Trump in every way possible. Reading this honestly makes me question why I read HN.

What reality-based approach to predicting Trump's win would you have used? Note; anecdotes are not a reliable approach.

How about one that isn't used only to influence voters?

Read Talebs tweets:

https://mishtalk.com/2016/08/07/nassim-telab-blasts-nate-sil...

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/794608806072352769

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#136

Post by sickbeard » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

zzalpha wrote: post #117

sickbeard wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't find that term offensive at all. To me it it means you believe in something and you're going to stand up for it.

Please. Let's all admit SJW has a clear, negative connotation. I mean, geez, it has a Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_justice_warrior is a pejorative term for an individual promoting socially progressive views,[1] including feminism,[1][2] civil rights,[1] multiculturalism,[1] and identity politics. Are you really going to claim that you weren't aware of this when you threw that term out there?

what's wrong with "promoting socially progressive views,[1] including feminism,[1][2] civil rights,[1] multiculturalism,[1] and identity politics" ???

just because someone uses it pejoratively doesn't make it untrue

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#137

Post by talmand » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

helpfulanon wrote: post #121

A popular uprising against Silicon Valley is coming. Already I hear it from people in my life, all over the country. They blame social media for allowing the Trump memes to warp people's opinion. They're starting to put the pieces together on unemployment and blame tech automation for taking jobs and not offering a replacement, especially in the heartland. They're angry with Silicon Valley execs for not putting up an…

Well, it's not just tech; it's any large corporation that gets coverage. Some people can only hear "we're making the world better" so much when by all appearances they are just making their own world better. I know it's not a fair assumption to make, but look at what gets reported (billion dollar companies that produce nothing with no profits, high level executives greatly rewarded for failure, and so on) versus the unknown companies that actually are trying to make things better with no coverage.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#138

Post by nibs » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:20 PM UTC

meritt wrote: post #101

misterbowfinger wrote: post #36

We're all definitely in an echo chamber. Hacker News is an echo chamber. So is Reddit, FB, Twitter, etc. This is what happens when, as an industry, we move towards "personalization". All of our "personalized" feeds allow businesses to increase their ad revenue, but it siphons us away from the rest of the world. 30 years ago, we were beholden to the large media outlets, which is also bad, but I believe we've overcorre…

HN is an echo chamber when it comes to tech choices, but it's absolutely not when it comes to politics. I've seen many pro-Trump supporters in the ranks here, which is very surprising given the demographic.

It is fascinating the extent to which smart-ish coastal city liberals cannot conceive of an intelligent or even highly intelligent Trump voter. There are plenty of them.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#139

Post by gdulli » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:22 PM UTC

AcerbicZero wrote: post #130

gdulli wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Trump won in large part due to disproportionate support from voters without a college degree is a plain fact worth being reported. Reading insult into it is discretionary.

I think the issue is more with the false equivalency presented by some journalists. A college degree or lack there of, does not automatically denote greater or lesser intelligence.

I don't have a college degree, so I agree. But I have enough knowledge of history to know that giving power to a loud, xenophobic demagogue is worse than giving it to a career politician who's trying to preserve the status quo. And journalists are concerned to see how many people don't.

Re: The Facebook bubble just popped

#140

Post by gdulli » Thu, Nov 10, 2016, 6:23 PM UTC

downandout wrote: post #131

gdulli wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That Trump won in large part due to disproportionate support from voters without a college degree is a plain fact worth being reported. Reading insult into it is discretionary.

So you're saying that half the country are racist rednecks (as Brokaw did). Got it. What you and Tom Brokaw are effectively saying is that one had to have been an idiot to either withhold a vote from or vote against Hillary, despite literally hundreds of perfectly valid reasons to do so.

I don't have a college degree, and I don't consider myself a racist redneck. I don't know where you're getting this from.