81–90 of 225 posts
What an absurd article. Facebook is worldwide but somehow the US only elections popped it's bubble? Not to mention this was a 50/50 opinion split.. not exactly earth shattering.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well for one thing i never heard anyone using Facebook as news source, if U.S. people really do that there is at least that. Otherwise really absurd article, agreed.
As an American and former FB user I must admit that before I gave it up entirely, it was my primary channel for finding news. This is still true of many of my friends and, I suspect, no small number of Americans. But yeah.
> On Facebook, a Trump victory was likely, or a Clinton win was all but assured. And if you were watching the election coverage the night of you could very discernibly see the change in the commentators narrative from "yay! Clinton!" to the shock of "Wait, Trump?" to "Those dirty rednecks! (er ... uneducated white folk)" as their reality was changing before them. It wasn't JUST Facebook.
"This election was much more about ‘Duck Dynasty’ than ‘Saturday Night Live’."
Hell hath no fury like an elite liberal scorned.
Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…
Alternate theory: People did not lie to the pollsters -- but there was voting fraud, and Trump didn't win.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Technically, they did predict it: 538 had 35% chance of Trump winning and emphasized the uncertainty factor, while other outlets had Clinton's chances as high as 99%.
Just like they predicted Trump's chance of winning the primary as 2%. Hilarious defence of their work in recent tweet "Clinton came within 2 points of 307 electoral votes, in which case polls would have been right in 49 of 50 states. " ie. If the results had been different, our prediction would have been correct.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundi...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Well for one thing i never heard anyone using Facebook as news source, if U.S. people really do that there is at least that. Otherwise really absurd article, agreed.
i never heard anyone using Facebook as news source Well, that's one hell of a bubble you're living in.
There is barely political or relevant stuff on my feed, and as said i never heard anyone say "did you read _that_ on facebook?" when talking about something in the news.
If that helps you: my circle is mostly from Austria and Switzerland
Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…
FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver's predictions have been hilariously wrong about Trump in every way possible. Reading this honestly makes me question why I read HN.
What an absurd article. Facebook is worldwide but somehow the US only elections popped it's bubble? Not to mention this was a 50/50 opinion split.. not exactly earth shattering.
That also happened for Brexit before. And there are more western elections to come in the coming months (Italy, France) where this is likely to be a factor.
That's the perception tilt that doesn't seem to be reflected in the media
Not just the left and right's echo-chambers, but those who attempt to actually listen to reality got it wrong, too: FiveThirtyEight for example has been using proven, reality-based statistics for a while and should have predicted this result. (As it was, Silver was lambasted for being too generous on Trump's chances.) At issue in this election is apparently a new idea: people who hold positions that are being publica…
Nassim Taleb has been calling BS on FiveThirtyEight's methods and models for months: https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/762032883414556674
He's now gone as far as calling FiveThirtyEight "clueless" and posted further comparisons of his model with theirs: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/50282823/binary%20foreca...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I find the electoral system in US to be funny. When 47.7% people voted for Hillary and 47.5 voted from Donald, yet Donald won. This is for the second time that Dems have lost this way, the last time was during Al Gore vs Bush
And they had 8 years to fix it but I don't think I heard a peep from them about electoral reform.
Ratified by 10 blue states representing 165 electoral votes, and zero red states. Most of the bluest states (CA, MA, NY, RI, DC, WA) ratified it during the Obama administration.