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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

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Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#152
post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada's immigration site is down due to volume. It won't happen, but it'd be hilarious if the Democrats planned to rig future elections by importing millions of immigrants to vote for them, and they instead end up emigrating by the millions to Canada thus swinging it in the opposite direction.

At this point I'd almost welcome a truly rigged system, or even a secret service member who doesn't mind a lifetime in prison. Eight years of W. Bush was bad, and frankly I doubt the economy could withstand whatever Trump has in "mind".

[deleted]

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#153
If any mod is reading this, I think it may be smart to close this thread down, since it will spiral into political drama very soon.

(I assume their will be a post discussing the result...)

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#154

I feel that I'm an educated person, and I try to keep up with politics in America, but I really don't understand our system. How can some states be called with less than 20% of the votes being counted?

If the 20% is from the Democratic part of the state and the rest of the districts to report are Republicans and the Democrat is not ahead (or reversed) then you can make a call. It really does matter which districts have fully reported.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#155
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Jitter is a visualization of uncertainty. Rather than display a range, it displays a needle moving within that range. It's only misleading developers, who will think that data is being streamed rather than fetched once. Other than that it's a clever (and yes, entertaining) way of displaying margins of error. Can I offer that, of all the things in news and dataviz to shit on, this isn't one of them? I mean, really, an…

I wrote an "abuse of our attention". Here's why. Attention is a limited commodity. Movement attracts the eye. Using movement is fine if it conveys information. Movement that never stops should only be used if each movement conveys information. In this case, a better solution would be a blurred needle. It is well known that multi-tasking and context switching has a cost. The same applies to movements on visualizations…

There's very little information it's trying to convey. If you don't want you're attention shifted you can just scroll down.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I believe each individual network calls them at their own discretion. It's not an official "call" by the government or anything. As to why so early, they have enough confidence in exit polls and other previous polls to say that, for example, Hillary is not going to win Oklahoma.

Is there any research on this news impacting voter participation? Ie if they feel their party is losing do they throw in the towel even though they still might have had a chance?

Looks like record turnout tonight, so in theory yes but probably not tonight. Plus, a lot of down ticket contests keep people interested.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#157
post #132
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes! It doesn't matter what sex, color, sexual orientation or if we agree with everything - we are UNITED! This is a movement. Establishment vs anti-Establishment. People over globalism.

I like the sentiment. The question now becomes "do you think Trump will follow through?".

A billionaire who could have taken it easy for his later years. I genuinely believe he sees the country is a mess and he wants to help. What he has gone through to win is unbelievable.

Probably he gets some initiatives through and rest is politics. Likely D & R try to block his drain the swamp initiatives. In 'Art of the Deal' Trump outlines the way he negotiates. Taking extreme position and coming down.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#158
post #141

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

Everyone mentions Brexit but I have to wonder it the roots of this goes back to the 90's. Remember the battle of seattle and the likes? I can think of a few other more local (to Australia) events that seem to make sense when you factor in this bubbling discontentment.

The roots of this are 8 years of a black man in the White House.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#159

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

One person who has been clear-headed about this for weeks is Michael Moore. Michigan and Wisconsin were supposed to be in the bag for Hillary, but that looks like where the surprise swing is coming from. Moore said from on the ground it felt like white working class people suffering from deindustrialization felt Hillary would do little for them, and might pick up the Molotov cocktail of Trump to throw into the system. His comments have been in lots of pro-Trump videos for weeks. Looks like he was right.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#160
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can't people just decide to create a new SV somewhere and do it? It's just people you need to move.

Why make a new one and not secede?

I'm not particularly well informed on the actual logistics of mounting a secession from the rest of the US, although at the very least I would imagine securing water rights would itself be a significant challenge for SV, but I very much doubt the "disruptors" in SV have the wherewithal to stomach such an endeavor.
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