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Live Presidential Forecast

nytimes.com

131–140 of 318 posts

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#131

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

To be fair, the polls were consistently in the opposite direction. 538 had clinton at 70%, PEC at 99%, everyone else somewhere in between. It's a black swan event, bubble or no.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#132
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I went to a Trump rally recently and found it truly unbelievable. Thousands of people, all demographics seemingly represented, lined up for hours despite the cold, dark night and horrible parking conditions. Trump was over two hours late, and the rally did not end until past 1am, but the energy and general goodwill towards each other persisted the entire time.

Yes! It doesn't matter what sex, color, sexual orientation or if we agree with everything - we are UNITED! This is a movement. Establishment vs anti-Establishment. People over globalism.

I like the sentiment. The question now becomes "do you think Trump will follow through?".

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#133
post #118

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Come on, at least give the guy a chance before bashing the future economy.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#134

It's looking like it might be a Brexit moment for the USA. The filter bubble echo chamber of social media and 24/7 coverage of celebrities stumping for Clinton is going to leave a lot of people shocked tomorrow when/if it's officially given to Trump.

I had a feeling this was going to happen today when I saw that virtually everyone in my Facebook feed and everyone on the streets of NYC was supporting Hillary. Every extra +1 in NYC is pretty much going to be -1 in a swing state.

As one of the hundreds of folks banned from DailyKos for being too liberal, I've been spending some time reading the Trump subreddit, and I have to say that Hillary has run perhaps the worst campaign in memory:

- Rigged the primaries against Bernie, disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters, and cheated during the debates.

- Spent 5x more on paid media advertising, and got all the social media sites to censor pro-Trump messages.

- Paid shills to attack anyone who disagrees with her policies on social media.

- It looks like there is a good chance her campaign was behind the attempt to frame Assange for pedophilia.

- Made gender her primary selling point with her #imwithher slogan. (Imagine if she had gone with something like #TheNextAmerica instead, to contrast with MAGA.)

- Accusing Trump of saying and doing tons of things he didn’t actually say or do.

- Characterizing Trump supporters as racists, bigots, deplorables, etc.

- Paying people to incite violence at Trump rallies

- Accusing Russia of hacking her campaign’s emails when in fact it was oedesta who gave out his password to a phishing site… twice… without two-factor enabled.

- Having Bill meet with Loretta Lynch during the email investigation. Then appointing Podesta's close friend to run the email investigation which resulted in a last minute FBI coup forcing Comey to make a statement.

I didn't vote for Trump, I don't support Trump, and I'm as horrified that he's going to be President as anyone else. But I have to say the actions of the DNC, Hillary, her campaign, and many of her supporters have been egregiously bad.

And now everything is super fucked.

edit: For everyone downvoting me, go turn on The Young Turks livestream and hear it from Cenk.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#135
post #106

Florida for Trump. Trump is the new President! Have a look at https://www.reddit.com/r/The_Donald to see what kind of people voted for Trump. MAGA! Edit: Downvote all you want doesn't change the outcome :)

! Trump wins Florida! Favorite Reddit comments so far. "There is still California, there's always money in the banana stand." "CNN, now is not the time to be playing an advert for The Man In The High Castle".

Have a look at the electoral votes map.

Even NYTIMES gives Trump +95% change to win.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#136
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Where is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently. I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).

Can't people just decide to create a new SV somewhere and do it? It's just people you need to move.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#137
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Where is there to "get out" to though? Economically the US has been outperforming the rest of the world recently. I'm especially worried because the developer job market is a lot worse outside the US than inside it. I genuinely don't know where to go (recession seems inevitable).

I'm quite partial to Ireland myself, but then, I'm not a developer. Canada also seems lovely this time of year.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#138
I leave work and I see Clinton is the probable winner. I drive home, get some dinner, and I get a text from the WSJ that stock futures are crashing because Trump might win?!? What the friggin hell pollsters? I get the feeling some explaining on the part of the newspapers and new networks is in order.

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#139
post #133
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Then you'll see the economic fallout, and then it's just four years of misery, and people who can afford to, getting the hell out.

Come on, at least give the guy a chance before bashing the future economy.

Watches markets around the world tumble

Yeeeaaaaah...

Re: Live Presidential Forecast

#140
post #25
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just checked. They gauges moving around is definitely random. The updates are done with a "president.json" file, fetched every 15 seconds, but the timestamp in the json data only changes every 30-180 seconds. So all of the movement is just random jitter to make it engaging. Maybe a bit disingenuous. (Note: I first thought they might be using websockets, but no WS connection is made on the page. Only a ajax fetch of…

I think the idea is to indicate these numbers have error bands: The estimates below include an estimate of uncertainty. We expect the uncertainty around these estimates to narrow, especially after races are called. I don't see any reason why we'd expect the uncertainty to be updated more than every 30-180 seconds or why any of this is the least bit "disingenuous".

As the recent events show, these "error bands" would have to be off the fucking scale.

So in showing wrong uncertainty, they are being even more disingenuous.

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