Live Presidential Forecast
nytimes.com
Live Presidential Forecast
1–10 of 318 posts
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#2This is very cool. I'd love to see a tech write up later this month... and some stats!
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#3Wouldn't that influence the voters?
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#4This is very cool. I'd love to see a tech write up later this month... and some stats!
It sure looks good.
I hope there's a solid statistical model behind it too though.
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#5Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#6There is a proliferation of predictive models and their outcomes vary widely. LA Times consistently predicted a Trump win, FiveThirtyEight was down to a coin toss a few times, while The New York Times was persistently pro-Hillary. While those models were meant to help people make sense of the large number of individual polls, now we need models to make sense of the models.
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#7Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?
Yeah, it looks hilariously fake.
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#8Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?
I just checked.
They gauges moving around is definitely random.
The updates are done with a "president.json" file, fetched every 15 seconds, but the timestamp in the json data only changes every 30-180 seconds.
So all of the movement is just random jitter to make it engaging.
Maybe a bit disingenuous.
(Note: I first thought they might be using websockets, but no WS connection is made on the page. Only a ajax fetch of president.json)
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#9Nice but the three top gauges are moving suspiciously fast. Do they add a little random the the real number to give a sort of error margin visualisation ?
Looking though the source code, they have a jitter amount. It adds a little visual interest.
Re: Live Presidential Forecast
#10I feel that I'm an educated person, and I try to keep up with politics in America, but I really don't understand our system. How can some states be called with less than 20% of the votes being counted?