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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#71

Post by SwellJoe »

stupidcar wrote: post #59
Gracana wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those statements are all still largely true, they haven't been "cycled through." There are a lot of good things happening in the world of electric cars, but right now, for most people, they're too expensive and they require sacrifices in utility and convenience that aren't seen in ICE vehicles.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Not the person you're responding to, but yes and yes.

600 charging stations worldwide? That's worse than I thought. I'm traveling across country as we speak (I live in an RV). I've seen one electric car charging option in the past few weeks...I've filled up over a dozen times in that period. Realistically speaking, you cannot take an electric car on vacation.

That doesn't mean I don't love electric cars (I even held TSLA for a while before needing to sell some stocks for a major purchase...I kept my GOOG and sold my TSLA).

One can love electric cars while still acknowledging what they cannot yet do. There was a time when horses were a better cross country means of transit than automobiles because there wasn't infrastructure for cars yet. We're at that stage for electric cars. It'll pass.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#72

Post by pbreit »

apalmer wrote: post #54
tmptmp wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself. What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to ma…

What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of compe…

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, etc, etc. It's hard to make much of a comparison.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#73

Post by rpedela »

givinguflac wrote: post #48
Spooky23 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

This is just crazy wrong. The Tesla S is insanely more safe, energy efficient, gets about the same amount of range, and will absolutely smoke an accord in a 0-60 and 1/4 mile race. Are you saying its a better value because it would be less expensive? You could say a $20 POS android phone is a better value than a galaxy s7 because it costs less and does mostly the same stuff, but it doesn't make that true.

I suspect "better value" in this case means the total cost of the car over its lifetime. Given the reliability problems of the Tesla Model S and the high sticker price, I would bet that the Honda Accord has a much better lifetime value. Maybe when Tesla fixes their manufacturing problems and releases a Model Average, that will change.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#74

Post by harshreality »

dkbrk wrote: post #50
DennisP wrote: post #2

Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them: > Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes. > more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium mark…

battery Li content = 80g / (kW hour) [1] Gigafactory total projected capacity 2020 = 85 GW hr/year [2] Gigafactory lithium metal demand = (80 g / (kW hour)) (85 GW hr/year) = 6800 t/year Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (anhydrous) = (6800 t/year) (23.95 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 23500 t/year Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (monohydrate) = (6800 t/year) (41.96 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 41000 t/year (FT article…

You inverted the mass ratio of Li-mass to compound-mass in the calculation.

price Li per ton from LiOH:

    23.95 [mass of LiOH] / 6.941 [mass of Li] * $14000 [$/ton of LiOH]
    $48,310/ton [of Li]
price of Li per ton from Li2CO3

    73.89 [mass of Li2CO3] / (2*6.941) [mass of Li] * $10000 [$/ton of Li2CO3]
    $53,230/ton [of Li]

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#75

Post by arethuza »

SwellJoe wrote: post #71
stupidcar wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Model X has 250 mile range. But you think it's "largely true" that electric cars have a range problem? There are ~600 charging stations worldwide, and that's increasing to 1200 during 2016. But you think it's "largely true" that there's no charging infrastructure?

Not the person you're responding to, but yes and yes. 600 charging stations worldwide ? That's worse than I thought. I'm traveling across country as we speak (I live in an RV). I've seen one electric car charging option in the past few weeks...I've filled up over a dozen times in that period. Realistically speaking, you cannot take an electric car on vacation. That doesn't mean I don't love electric cars (I even held…

Maybe that's 600 Tesla provided charging stations - there ~4000 electric car charging stations in the UK alone:

https://www.zap-map.com/statistics/

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#76

Post by cletus »

marvin wrote: post #49
cletus wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charg…

There's no reason to pull out the True Believer ad hominem. You have valid points, but it also wouldn't be the first time that a long list of drawbacks with new technology are resolved one by one until it becomes obvious to everyone that the new way of doing things is better. I think that battery-electric vehicles are in this category, and that it will be tough for competitors to catch up once the "this is obviously…

100k/year compared to 17m cars and light trucks sold in the US in 2015 is a drop in the ocean.

This seems to be another example, particularly on this forum, of "living in the bubble". The bubble in this case is urban living in California, a situation with relatively low ranges of driving with temperate weather.

Again, I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm simply pointing out the obvious: it's got incredibly far to go and there are enormous challenges to overcome such that, at a minimum, it's going to take a long time.

Dominating their niche will be a useful outcome. If light vehicles in cities become predominantly electric, that is a useful outcome and I look forward to it for the reduction in air and noise pollution.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#77

Post by cletus »

stevep98 wrote: post #51
icebraining wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Time to charge is not a huge issue, you can simply replace the battery for a full one. Tesla has an automated battery swap station that can replace one in 90 seconds.

Those battery swap stations were mixed (... For now?) http://www.roadandtrack.com/new-cars/car-technology/news/a25...

I think you mean "nixed".

Whatever the case, I tend to agree that battery swaps is not a scalable solution.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#78

Post by dragontamer »

pbreit wrote: post #72
apalmer wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What are you talking about. I mean specifically. What state of the art manufacturing/engineering/processes do you specifically speak of that Toyota can only dream of that Tesla can employ? Are you talking from facts? OR are you talking from feelings, and hunches, and faith in Musk? Space X, is one thing... in that bracket Musk is competing with inefficient opponents who have historically benefitted from lack of compe…

What are =you= talking about? Tesla's manufacturing capabilities are far more modern and informed by Silicon Valley. Electronic cars (outside the Model X) have far fewer parts and are substantially less complex than combustion engine. Tesla has =far= better software development capabilities which is becoming much more important. Tesla has a much simpler distribution network and much closer contact with users. etc, et…

Then why did Edmund's car need FOUR drive units in two years?

http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes...

That's the FOURTH drive unit (3rd replacement) their Model S needed.

The fact of the matter is, my Ford Focus (and most people's Toyota Camry from the 90s) has needed less maintenance than than the two-year test Edumnds did on the Model S.

Unless you like paying $90,000+ for a car that dies in the middle of the highway as the drive unit completely craps out, I'm not sure if the Tesla Model S is actually a sign of Tesla's manufacturing prowness.

http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes...

http://www.edmunds.com/tesla/model-s/2013/long-term-road-tes...

And considering the widespread reports of issues with the "simple electric" Drive Unit, I'm thinking the electric drive unit is a lot more complex than Tesla's marketing slides indicate.

---------

Worst part is that this isn't anecdotal evidence. MULTIPLE reporters have had their Tesla Model S die on them in the middle of the highway.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eTeJMACrtM

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#79

Post by dkbrk »

harshreality wrote: post #74
dkbrk wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

battery Li content = 80g / (kW hour) [1] Gigafactory total projected capacity 2020 = 85 GW hr/year [2] Gigafactory lithium metal demand = (80 g / (kW hour)) (85 GW hr/year) = 6800 t/year Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (anhydrous) = (6800 t/year) (23.95 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 23500 t/year Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (monohydrate) = (6800 t/year) (41.96 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 41000 t/year (FT article…

You inverted the mass ratio of Li-mass to compound-mass in the calculation. price Li per ton from LiOH: 23.95 [mass of LiOH] / 6.941 [mass of Li] * $14000 [$/ton of LiOH] $48,310/ton [of Li] price of Li per ton from Li2CO3 73.89 [mass of Li2CO3] / (2*6.941) [mass of Li] * $10000 [$/ton of Li2CO3] $53,230/ton [of Li]

Damn, you're right. Thanks for pointing that out.

Unfortunately, I don't seem to be able to edit my earlier post.

That changes some of the numbers substantially. Cost of lithium salts at 2015 prices to sustain full Gigafactory production becomes about $USD 340 million/year, rather than the $USD 20 million/year I initially calculated.

The figures about volume of supply, demand and reserves, stand.

Sometimes I think it would be worth putting in "dummy parameter" units to stop mistakes like this from happening with dimensionless ratios.

Anyway, thanks again for pointing that out.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#80

Post by sschueller »

qaq wrote: post #28
tacos wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

Reminds me of Louis CK rant "..cause now we live in, in an amazing, amazing world and it's wasted on the, on the crappiest generation of just spoiled idiots...". The dude disrupted 3 major industries and all we can do is complain that he is not hitting ship dates or volume targets let's just stone him for this horrible transgression.

The issue is that people will jump ship especially since the reservation fee is refundable. By 2018-19 other manufacturers will have alternative electric vehicles ready to ship.
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