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Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

bloomberg.com

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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#31

Post by lorenzhs »

DennisP wrote: post #2

Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them: > Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes. > more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium mark…

Lithium is abundant, the question is just how well it can be extracted. For example, there is more Lithium in sea water than humanity can ever use to build batteries, but we still need to commercialize the extraction. So it's not that there isn't enough of the stuff, it's that there currently isn't that much of a need for it, so only the most easily accessible reserves are being tapped. That might cause supply issues in the short term, but long term, there's no shortage.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#32

Post by tmptmp »

apalmer wrote: post #17
jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

There is a big difference between Electric Vehicles as a whole and Tesla. Electric Vehicles are 'probably' here to stay and will 'probably' eventually make up a significant portion of first world mainstream automobile market. Whether Tesla significantly leads the industry in volume of Electric Vehicles manufactured and sold is another matter entirely. The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the aut…

>>The main component one has to not underestimate is that in the automobile industry the technology/engineering problem of the car is less important to the technology/engineering/process of the plant itself.

What you say makes some sense, though, you seem to forget that there is vast difference between the technology/engineering/processes of the plants needed to manufacture the electric cars and the ones needed to manufacture the fossil fuel cars.

Another thing, it should not be too difficult for us to grant that Elon Musk is not a fool to make that big a statement without doing some homework. Also, don't forget the current state of the art of the technology/engineering/processes he may employ now that Toyota could (and still can) only dream of.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#33

Post by hanniabu »

ArcticCelt wrote: post #6

Worst case scenario, wouldn't it be conceivable that the guy who built a car and space rocket company from scratch now creates/buy a lithium mining and/or battery making company to be able to supply Tesla different projects (cars, powerwall)?

And make it as autonomous as possible.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#34

Post by agumonkey »

What Tesla has, are Musks shoulders. He went pretty deep and pretty low to make this happen when it was nothing. Not to make him a supernatural being, but now that his ventures are stable and growing I expect him to be able to handle pressure and find solutions way easier than when Tesla almost went bankrupt.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#35

Post by programmer_dude »

Spooky23 wrote: post #23
jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.

How about safety?

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#36

Post by karmicthreat »

This is probably the only direction available to Tesla. They can grow or lose market share over 5 years as the legacy automakers catch up.

The biggest threat to Tesla now is that their logistics teams will be able to source sufficient materials. I think getting the manufacturing lines up and running will be a challenge, but one Tesla has met before.

Financially can Tesla do it? I'd say yes, and they probably won't even have to do any fundraising to do so. They will probably be able to fund it completely through debt instruments. They are a good bet by any measure at this point.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#37

Post by DennisP »

lorenzhs wrote: post #31
DennisP wrote: post #2

Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them: > Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes. > more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium mark…

Lithium is abundant, the question is just how well it can be extracted. For example, there is more Lithium in sea water than humanity can ever use to build batteries, but we still need to commercialize the extraction. So it's not that there isn't enough of the stuff, it's that there currently isn't that much of a need for it, so only the most easily accessible reserves are being tapped. That might cause supply issues…

In the long term future of humanity, sure. I'm talking about the next few years for Tesla, since that's the topic of OP's article.

Production is increasing, but slowly, and even if Tesla were offering a price sufficient to motivate faster increases, it takes time to bring new projects online. Aside from building facilities, you eat a couple years just waiting for brine to evaporate: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/b/3abb52e4-ea59-4ed9-85...

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#38

Post by cletus »

jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars:

- high cost of batteries

- limited range largely limits them to urban settings

- materials currently required for manufacturer are limited

- cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range

- time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank

- charging stations require a massive and expensive infrastructure upgrade for widespread use

- cost

- unproven reliability. This is partly an issue of the technology being so new but even Tesla says the batteries need to be replaced after ~8 years.

Battery technology has come a long way in the last 20 years. It's already enabled a bunch of applications that are hugely significant (eg smartphones, drones) to the point where I think that a massive breakthrough in battery technology may well be the most important discovery of the 21st century as the consequences will be so staggeringly massive.

So I'm not saying the electric vehicles are the future or that they aren't. The future is hard to predict. Regardless, putting liquid fuels into vehicles is here for some time to come yet.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#39

Post by Aelinsaar »

paublyrne wrote: post #25
tacos wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.

Are you saying that he'll get to Mars, but not on time? I'm positive he'll do it alright. Whether its 2018, 2019, or 2020, hardly diminishes the feat.

Agreed, but just a correction, if not 2018, then you don't get a launch window for another couple of years.

Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity

#40

Post by mikeash »

tacos wrote: post #22
jblow wrote: post #9

First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…

"Shipping is a feature." Imagine someone rear-ends your current gas-guzzler and the insurance company totals it. Now try and buy one of the damn things. Over the air suspension upgrades are great. So is being able to walk onto a lot and drive a car home. EDIT: "Pretty sure you can have one delivered like, next day." Love the HN optimism. As if my comment didn't imply that I just got fuckin' rear ended and tried to bu…

Tesla has CPOs and inventory cars you can get much faster. Of course you're limited in your choices then, just like buying inventory from a dealer.
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