Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
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Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#2Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them:
> Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes.
> more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium market is approaching a shortage, with no new supply coming on stream next year, say analysts. At the same time, battery factories being built in China are set to increase demand for lithium.
> So far two companies have announced supply deals with Tesla, and neither is expected to produce substantial amounts of lithium until after 2020.
> “The current strategy seems to be no direct investment but leveraging the Tesla name by signing ‘contingent’ contracts at unachievably low prices with junior mining companies who have never produced lithium chemicals,”
> Albemarle of Baton Rouge, FMC Lithium of Philadelphia and SQM of Chile, the big producers of lithium, have not been willing to supply at the prices Tesla has demanded.
[1] http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4a924a64-99df-11e5-987b-d6cde...
(To get around paywall, google "lithium supply tesla" and take the top result.)
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#3What a boringly one-sided article.
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#4Tesla has yet to transition from a product first to a manufacturing first kind of company. Entry level cars are much more shaped by manufacturing possibilities rather than consumer demand. It's not unreasonable to assume that the Model 3 will be sold at a loss and then it will be a question about how much longer investors are willing to pour money into Tesla rather than how many cars they can sell. I'd buy a Tesla - it's a bargain. Unlike the stock.
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#5It should be clarified that this is an op-ed. The author does not cite any hard facts, and the primary argument seems to be that the author believes that only Toyota's methods are the methods that work, and because Tesla isn't doing what Toyota did, but has ambitious goals, it will fail.
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#6Worst case scenario, wouldn't it be conceivable that the guy who built a car and space rocket company from scratch now creates/buy a lithium mining and/or battery making company to be able to supply Tesla different projects (cars, powerwall)?
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#7[deleted]
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#8"Autistic Charisma as a Service."
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#9First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc."
Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway."
Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand."
The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less than 10 years should be a clue of some kind.
Re: Tesla will not be able to scale its manufacturing capacity
#10Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them: > Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes. > more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium mark…
The 70% appears to be proven reserves (at least, I don't see reason to interpret it otherwise).
The more interesting question is where supply can easily be developed. The much larger reserves elsewhere don't matter if a different mine is able to easily increase production to meet the demand.