41–50 of 131 posts
- They can't ramp up production fast enough to keep up with the demand indicated by pre-orders.
- Pre-orders are likely to be overstating demand substantially, since they are refundable and therefore vulnerable to speculation.
...Either one of these problems by itself could be a threat, but both together seem somewhat less worrying.
First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…
No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charg…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah yeah. But does anyone here with a history of building something more complicated than a Rails app want to bet real money that Musk will put a Dragon on Mars AND ship 500,000 Teslas in 2018? He's not exactly known for hitting his ship dates or volume targets.
What is exactly the penalty for missing ship date targets? Slight cost increases? Lower profit margins? Do they have difficulty with cash?
- US tax rebates for electric vehicles are phased out after a manufacturer has sold 200 000 of them. [2] The longer Tesla takes to start selling Model 3, the more it will have sold of the upmarket (hence less rebate-sensitive) S and X, the fewer price-sensitive Model 3s it will be able to sell at the rebated price.
- Competitors are not standing still. Who knows what else will be available in 2019 or 2020? And how long will those 400k preorders stand in the face of delays when there are alternatives?
[1] http://uk.businessinsider.com/tesla-to-raise-more-cash-2016-...
[2] http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1085549_when-do-electric...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
$75,000 is still about 2 times the cost of a brand new traditional luxury car. It's about 3 to 4 times the cost of a brand new lower-end or mid-range car. It's 10 to 20 times the cost of a used car. Maybe $75,000 isn't as unaffordable as $120,000, but it's not exactly cheap for most car consumers.
First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Teslas are still "rich peoples' toys" some places, model s cost 120000 USD for the cheapest model.
You must be inhaling ICE exhaust.A new Tesla Model S is $76.5k https://www.teslamotors.com/models/design
First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…
Most of those things are still true. A duded-up Honda Accord is a better value than an Everyman Tesla in every category.
First it was "electric cars are not viable technologically, they have no range, there is no charging infrastructure, etc." Then it was "electric cars are too expensive, they are rich peoples' toys, and mainstream consumers will never want them anyway." Now it is "Tesla will not be able to scale up to meet all the demand." The fact that EV naysayers have been forced to cycle through this spectrum of responses in less…
No offense intended but you come off sounding like a True Believer here. There have been and continue to be severe limitations on electric cars: - high cost of batteries - limited range largely limits them to urban settings - materials currently required for manufacturer are limited - cold weather reduces battery effectiveness and thus range - time to charge is a huge issue compared to simply refilling a tank - charg…
I'd also claim that the drawbacks you mention don't merit the word severe, given that Tesla is able to sell ~100,000 vehicles per year with these drawbacks. They are certainly disadvantageous, but not to such a degree that they are a limitation to more than a few precent of the use cases. Also, there are advantages to electric vehicles - e.g. less routine maintenance, fewer moving parts to service, lower operating costs, less noise and emissions. So to a degree it evens out even with the present limitations.
Something they don't mention is lithium supply. According to the Financial Times[1], that's a big problem for them: > Tesla will need about 24,000 tonnes annually of lithium hydroxide, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, out of a market last year of 50,000 tonnes. > more than 70 per cent of which is found in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Due to growth in demand for electric batteries, the global lithium mark…
battery Li content = 80g / (kW hour) [1]
Gigafactory total projected capacity 2020 = 85 GW hr/year [2]
Gigafactory lithium metal demand = (80 g / (kW hour)) (85 GW hr/year) = 6800 t/year
Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (anhydrous) = (6800 t/year) (23.95 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 23500 t/year
Gigafactory lithium hydroxide demand (monohydrate) = (6800 t/year) (41.96 g/mol / (6.941 g/mol)) = 41000 t/year
(FT article was evidently talking about anhydrous lithium hydroxide)
price lithium hydroxide = USD 14000/t [3]
price lithium carbonate = USD 10000/t [3]
price lithium (from hydroxide) = USD 14000/t (6.941 g/mol / (23.95 g/mol)) = USD 4060/t
price lithium (from carbonate) = USD 10000/t (2 6.941 g/mol / (73.89 g/mol)) = USD 1880/t
(N.B. just cost of raw materials, not including cost of lithium extraction from salt by electrolysis)
Gigafactory demanded lithium cost (from hydroxide) = (USD 4060/t) (6800 t/year) = USD 27 million/year
Gigafactory demanded lithium cost (from carbonate) = (USD 1880/t) (6800 t/year) = USD 13 million/year
Estimated world lithium reserves = 14 million t [4]
Gigafactory proportional use of lithium reserves = (6800 t/year) / (14 million t) = 0.05%/year
World production of lithium (2015) = 32500 t/year [4]
Gigafactory proportional use of lithium production = (6800 t/year) / (32500 t/year) = 21%
The estimated lithium demand of the Gigafactory (which matches the FT article's figures) are for the Gigafactory's total demand (both Powerwalls and cars) with the factory at full operating capacity in 2020. There is a number of years yet for lithium production to scale up.
Even taking the Gigafactory's projected demands in 2020 against lithium production in 2015, it requires 'only' 21% of the market. Tesla would be a very large customer, perhaps the single largest in the wourld, but Tesla wouldn't exactly be required to corner the entire market.
Supply and demand dynamics dictate that with increased demand, price will increase. The cost of the raw lithium salts would be on the order of USD 20 million/year for Tesla. Even with a price vastly inflated from here, it would be a small cost against Tesla's operating income.
A single Gigafactory operating at full capacity would take over 2000 years to exhaust the USGS's estimate of world lithium reserves of 14 million t.
[1]: http://electronics.stackexchange.com/a/34504
[2]: http://www.zdnet.com/article/panasonic-to-pour-billions-of-y...
[3]: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-13/lithium-graphite-the-n...
[4]: http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/lithium/mcs...