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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think so. Once you’ve already automates a truck, you have a lot more information to convey than what’s out the windshield, and you are liberated from needing to turn a steering wheel or push foot pedals. There’s no reason to build a cab into the truck that is only used for the last mile. Telepresence will do just fine.

If that's the case, then why aren't cargo ships already automated to this extent? It seems like automating a container vessel would be even easier - there are far fewer things to run into on the water (even in a busy port) than there are on a busy highway.

Pirates? You need a crew on cargo ships regardless of whether they are automated or not.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

I don’t think so. Once you’ve already automates a truck, you have a lot more information to convey than what’s out the windshield, and you are liberated from needing to turn a steering wheel or push foot pedals. There’s no reason to build a cab into the truck that is only used for the last mile. Telepresence will do just fine.

[deleted]

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

Trains can't haul produce and other refrigerated product.

The Juice Train can, as does the "Salad Shooter" train. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juice_Train

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#155
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates.

Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think so. Once you’ve already automates a truck, you have a lot more information to convey than what’s out the windshield, and you are liberated from needing to turn a steering wheel or push foot pedals. There’s no reason to build a cab into the truck that is only used for the last mile. Telepresence will do just fine.

If that's the case, then why aren't cargo ships already automated to this extent? It seems like automating a container vessel would be even easier - there are far fewer things to run into on the water (even in a busy port) than there are on a busy highway.

I would bet because the wage paid is insignificant compared to maintenance of the vessel and that the maritime laws would be further complicating such a scenario.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

> For long haul, you can just use trains. RoLa (Rollende Landstraße) as we call this in Germany, or just transporting the flatbed carriages, requires a SHITLOAD of manual work, unlike containers where you don't even need people on the locos in the yard anymore. Not to mention that long-haul-via-rail is only viable in the US... in Europe, it virtually doesn't exist anymore. It just isn't profitable due to various exte…

> 2) freight trains don't get priority over passenger trains

Freight trains get priority here and it still doesn't make sense to ship by train. Rail is pretty limited by the huge size of our country, and they need to be able to ship to tiny random stores all over the place. It makes more sense to send one truck that can stop anywhere there's a road than send it out via train and then transfer to a local truck, which might be sitting unused the rest of the time.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same - including the truck form factor. Without the required creature comforts of the tractor, you free up a lot of energy (heat/cool) and space (bed/TV etc...) in the cab. I can also see traffic lanes being created to support commerce, special easement areas for trucks at stops that don't have to support showers/food/bathrooms etc... r…

> All of this comes at cost to human workers - but it's inevitable. I disagree. Specifically, you are assuming that the human workers will quietly accept their fate.

Butlerian Jihad! You shall not have thinking machines.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#159
post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

Given that an automated truck will follow a certain safety framework, it's interesting to contemplate if there might be automated truck pirates. Jam mobile connectivity, run the truck off the road by herding it with other vehicles, then break in and run-away with the goods or the entire trailer for that matter.

This is one of many reasons we will still need humans present, if only in a guard capacity.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#160
post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Very true, but I guess my argument is that the author is wrong in terms of this being a devastating thing to our current workforce.

If you were 55+ with your only qualification being that you could drive a truck and that niche was automated away, this would absolutely be devastating to you.

Just a thought: What if they only replace retiring/stopping/dying drivers with a driver-less alternative and close off the profession for others?
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