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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#121

Post by braythwayt »

quanticle wrote: post #85
braythwayt wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

I don’t think so. Once you’ve already automates a truck, you have a lot more information to convey than what’s out the windshield, and you are liberated from needing to turn a steering wheel or push foot pedals.

There’s no reason to build a cab into the truck that is only used for the last mile. Telepresence will do just fine.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#122

Post by Bombthecat »

jmspring wrote: post #91
ori_b wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Where is the money going to come from for produce suppliers, some on thin profits, to automate where hiring a bunch of seasonal laborers is less overhead, maintenance, etc.

It is coming from another Uber company. Or maybe a new brunch of Uber.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#124

Post by heffo »

a3n wrote: post #32

> Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. Awhile back there was a post about the early experience of a young and enthusiastic programmer. The take away phrase, in response to someone sending nonsense input, was "Some people just want to watch the world burn." I can see assholes trying to make sure that an automated truck can't change lanes,…

I believe the post you are talking about is "Mr. Fart's favorite color". https://medium.com/@blakeross/mr-fart-s-favorite-colors-3177...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#125

Post by tomjen3 »

peterwwillis wrote: post #104
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

I am convinced. Ban trucks.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#126

Post by pm24601 »

JulianMorrison wrote: post #35
HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

Are you sure they're more complicated for computers ? Because some stuff that strains humans, like 360° attention and complicated sequential activities, computers can do with ease. Also computers are not limited to having senses inside the cab. Load shifting? BigDog is an example of computers figuring how to balance a shifting load. Google cars handle being cut off (most of the time).

Google cars are going no more than 25 mph and are lightweight. Different thing all together.

Here is the big thing - the driverless truck has to operate in a uncontrolled environment that can result in human death. Who is the responsible party? The trucking company? The software developer?

Additionally we are talking situations where a computer can't have any reaction interruptions for hours and hours. No reboots. No garbage collection pauses. No panics.

Can this be done? Maybe. But at what cost? It might be that the best role for the computer is helping a truck driver be safer -- not to replace the truck driver.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#127

Post by pm24601 »

AndrewKemendo wrote: post #96
HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same - including the truck form factor. Without the required creature comforts of the tractor, you free up a lot of energy (heat/cool) and space (bed/TV etc...) in the cab. I can also see traffic lanes being created to support commerce, special easement areas for trucks at stops that don't have to support showers/food/bathrooms etc... r…

> All of this comes at cost to human workers - but it's inevitable.

I disagree. Specifically, you are assuming that the human workers will quietly accept their fate.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#128

Post by throwaway_xx9 »

bglazer wrote: post #63
eggy wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We've gotten used to huge commercial airliners flying on autopilot. Granted they have humans on board, but ask any pilot how much flying they do. Even helicopters can be put on autopilot after take-off. That's what the helicopters that run from Macau to Hong Kong many times a day are doing. I can see ironing out the kinks - pedestrians, roadblocks, car stops in front abruptly, etc... I would think you could have a tr…

Honestly, I'm not sure that most people understand the extent to which commercial airline flight is automated. For example, most people are shocked when I tell people that pilots are required to let the plane auto-land under very bad visibility conditions.

> "most people are shocked when I tell people that pilots are required to let the plane auto-land under very bad visibility conditions."

As a commercially-rated pilot I would be shocked, too - since few airport runways are certified for Cat III landings, and that's only under restricted wind speeds.

And even after autoland in fog, a pilot still taxis up to the gate.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#129

Post by jonknee »

jmspring wrote: post #41
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much. I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automated. Why? It's not just the take crap from point A to point B, it's also being responsible for making sure what was ordered is actually loaded. It will be years before, say, the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic"…

It won't be a perfect fit for all types of trucking (say, delivery drivers), but many loads can certainly be transported place to place without a person needing to babysit it. Example: I imagine Amazon would love to be able to move loads around distro centers with automated trucking.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#130

Post by jonknee »

thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10
patejam wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start out with "last mile" drivers to deal with off-highway driving.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

> But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

And yet the highways are full of semi trailers...

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