Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

techcrunch.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

91–100 of 471 posts

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#91

Post by jmspring »

ori_b wrote: post #68
jmspring wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much. I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automated. Why? It's not just the take crap from point A to point B, it's also being responsible for making sure what was ordered is actually loaded. It will be years before, say, the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic"…

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Where is the money going to come from for produce suppliers, some on thin profits, to automate where hiring a bunch of seasonal laborers is less overhead, maintenance, etc.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#92

Post by randycupertino »

tyingq wrote: post #48

Mentioned in the article, but there's a pretty big trickle down effect that will crush other businesses. Roadside motels, for example. And while trucks will still need fuel, I don't think the current economics of truck stops work if you just sell gas. Maybe a surprise for the government as well, less tax revenue since the new drivers will drive in a more fuel efficient way, and probably require a smaller overall flee…

It's basically going to decimate the blue-collar workforce. "short term disability" is already increasingly the new stopgap between gaps in social welfare for unemployed and underemployed blue collar workers.

If driverless trucks become the new norm, expect major jumps in SSDI rolls, unless we institute some form of basic income.

http://apps.npr.org/unfit-for-work/

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#93

Post by jdoliner »

jejones3141 wrote: post #90

At one point the author says something about convoys of trucks and taking advantage of the speed for maximum fuel efficiency, 45 mph. I'm not sure that people traveling on the interstate will appreciate being stuck behind convoys of automated trucks all running at 45 mph.

Hopefully our convoy of self driving cars will learn to stay separate from the convoy of self driving trucks.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#94

Post by jmspring »

ori_b wrote: post #68
jmspring wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Mechanical aspects, may be easy. Modeling human behavior and reacting to it, not so much. I suspect it will still be years before much of trucking is automated. Why? It's not just the take crap from point A to point B, it's also being responsible for making sure what was ordered is actually loaded. It will be years before, say, the laborers at Earth Bound Farms south of Salinas (supplies large quantities of "organic"…

But we've already got automated warehousing systems that work pretty well -- I'd imagine these wouldn't be too hard to extend to load and unload trucks. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that they already can.

Specifically, the automation of long haul trucking, comparable to what large tanker ships do, may be more feasible. The last mile, scheduling, and the rest, is a horrid mess. A family member is in the business and I live in an area where ag work is prevalent and know people who have worked in such.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#95

Post by jdoliner »

mmahemoff wrote: post #79

"Where drivers are restricted by law from driving more than 11 hours per day without taking an 8-hour break, a driverless truck can drive nearly 24 hours per day. That means the technology would effectively double the output of the U.S. transportation network at 25 percent of the cost." This suggests each truck has one driver - the truck stops when the driver stops. Aren't there systems that let drivers pool/share tr…

I'm pretty sure the limiting factor for trucking throughput is drivers not trucks. That's why labor accounts for 75% of the cost of shipping.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#96

Post by AndrewKemendo »

HorizonXP wrote: post #2

My father is a truck driver. He made his living driving vehicles and doing heavy lifting and menial work. Truck driving is just the latest evolution in his "career" and I'm ever grateful to him for battering his body in various ways to ensure I had every opportunity available to myself. We talk a lot about his job. It's not fun. He works long hours, a lot of it is mundane driving, and he sits idle a lot of the time.…

I think the flaw here is assuming that the systems around the truck will stay the same - including the truck form factor. Without the required creature comforts of the tractor, you free up a lot of energy (heat/cool) and space (bed/TV etc...) in the cab.

I can also see traffic lanes being created to support commerce, special easement areas for trucks at stops that don't have to support showers/food/bathrooms etc... reducing overall cost.

All of this comes at cost to human workers - but it's inevitable.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#97

Post by themartorana »

mixermf wrote: post #87

Automation is driving humans out of jobs. Driverless trucks will layoff 1%+ of the US population, because driverless trucks are far more economical. The general trend is profits go up and employment goes down. What to do with such an economy? Basic income. Tax the profits and give everyone sufficient income to pay for the basic necessities. That's one of the conclusions of the 2011 book Race Against The Machine, by t…

I'm a big fan of Alan Watts' "Money, Guilt, and the Machine" [0] as are many people here. It's most poignant point IMHO is that we're screwed until we can separate money and morality. As we move towards more political extremes here in the US, that's going to be near impossible.

So we can either separate money from morality, or suffer greatly as jobs - especially blue collar jobs - are automated away.

Alas I fear there will be great suffering...

[0] https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ssDY74nLuLg

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#98

Post by taivare »

patrickg_zill wrote: post #61
rndmize wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's already not handled 100% of the time. I'll settle for 75% less freeway blocking by crashed big rigs.

I am hopeful that robots can fix it, but most likely it will take a little bit longer... robot trucks will save on fuel, brakes, and tires, as they can be programmed to minimize sudden acceleration and taking a turn too quickly (scrubs rubbers off the tires).

Having driven in winter weather I can honestly say it will be a while . . before they are ready to take over. As for tire wear , there are small firms that look for very experienced driver's to cheat the scales . . this is how its done if they are overweight , think ( steel coils ) they time it so they hit the scales at night . . the driver goes into the scale and positions the rear trailer wheels on one side . . up on the curb registering a lower weight on the scale.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#99

Post by simonebrunozzi »

I don't expect drivers to go away immediately. Instead, I expect their wages to drop 50% overnight - but they will still be required to be on the truck: to fill the tank, to clean something, to be there and guard it against theft, etc.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#100

Post by themartorana »

jdoliner wrote: post #93
jejones3141 wrote: post #90

At one point the author says something about convoys of trucks and taking advantage of the speed for maximum fuel efficiency, 45 mph. I'm not sure that people traveling on the interstate will appreciate being stuck behind convoys of automated trucks all running at 45 mph.

Hopefully our convoy of self driving cars will learn to stay separate from the convoy of self driving trucks.

I cannot wait.
Post reply on HN