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The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

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Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#131

Post by MertsA »

quanticle wrote: post #85
braythwayt wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

Or, alternatively, do they wait at truck stops on the edge of town and meet the trucks as they come in (much like harbor pilots meet container ships at port entrances)?

If you were able to dispense with the cab and any human interfaces/amenities, that would cut out a big chunk of weight and drag. It would look radically different but just think of all of the components on a truck that are only there for the driver. No need for a cab, AC system, heater, pedals, steering wheel and linkages, airbags, seats, pretty much all of the glass and windows, doors, etc. The added sensors, telemetry, and computational requirements necessary for an autonomous vehicle suddenly don't look so pricy compared to the savings of removing a huge chunk of the vehicle, nonstop operation or maintenance, no salary for the driver, lower insurance costs, lower fuel costs, and other assorted savings. Really it's looking like more and more of an inevitability in my opinion. Once the control problem is solved, I doubt it'll be more economical to continue putting a trucker behind the wheel.

Of course if you need to provide all of that to allow for someone to drive it manually around town a lot of those benefits are gone. Who knows, there will probably be some transitional period where all automated trucks are still equipped for manual control but I doubt it'll stay that way for long.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#132

Post by danarlow »

braythwayt wrote: post #73
michaelbuckbee wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This was my thought as well. That a new 'tugboat captain' or 'harbor pilot' type role emerges for last mile driving.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

Definitely can't remotely operate a 40 ton truck. Wireless network latency is a bit high even under ideal conditions, and latency spikes could easily cause disastrous accidents.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#133

Post by jonknee »

kilroy123 wrote: post #40

My friend is some kind of logistics manager for a trucking company. He literally manages dozens of trucks and truck drivers daily. He says, it's so ridiculous, how far away we are from automatting truck driving. There is a lot of manual work for loading and off-loading rigs. Plus there is driving in every single possible driving condition possible, around the world. He said, he could see an auto-pilot system being in…

And I'm sure someone was friends with a confident stagecoach driver before automobiles took over. Computers have taken over tons of ridiculous and complicated tasks already, it's silly to think your specific niche is the special case.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#134

Post by pm24601 »

This "Nirvana" of the driverless truck is focusing on long distance trucking.

There are a number of issues with this. The biggest one is that there is already a solution to the long distance safe movement of goods with minimal human involvement.

It is called a t-r-a-i-n.

Trucking companies already use long distance trains as alternatives to long distance truckers. It is far cheaper and less technologically risky to simply increase the amount of long distance freight that moves via railroad.

With driverless trucks, :

* each truck needs complex (expensive) electronics that need to be kept repaired and up to date * regulatory hurdles * liability issues

What happens when a computer has a memory corruption issue and shuts down halfway across Nevada?

For driverless trucks to be a real thing, the very real competition from the railroad industry needs to be addressed.

Based on past history, the railroad industry is going to be reminding all the regulators of how dangerous trucking (and now unmanned trucks) can be --- and how safe and proven the railroad alternative is.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#135

Post by jonknee »

the_economist wrote: post #77
losteric wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well even Germany isn't going to start with self-driving trucks driving everywhere. Every country has standardization problems... in Germany there are ancient towns with arches that trucks can't go under (and not all of them are marked). In the US we have inconsistent/missing signs, dense urban areas built for small cars, and all kinds of crazy human driving. My guess is actually opposite of yours though. I think sho…

The trucks will likely drive at 45 mph so it would take 65 hours to cross the country. Still a huge improvement.

> The trucks will likely drive at 45 mph so it would take 65 hours to cross the country. Still a huge improvement.

By "likely" you mean one guy in a Tech Crunch editorial mentioned that would be efficient. Driverless trucks could look totally different because they don't need to house a driver (and their sleeping quarters) and be much more aerodynamic.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#136

Post by Fuzzwah »

danarlow wrote: post #132
braythwayt wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But here’s the question: Do these ‘last mile’ drivers sit in the cab? Or operate the rigs from thousands of miles away, like drone pilots, with displays showing 360 degrees around the rig and access to all of its sensors? Last mile driving may not look anything like truck driving.

Definitely can't remotely operate a 40 ton truck. Wireless network latency is a bit high even under ideal conditions, and latency spikes could easily cause disastrous accidents.

You can continue to rely on the automated systems for avoiding collisions. The intelligence is more with dealing with the decisions that the AI can't make.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#137

Post by raw_creations »

thescriptkiddie wrote: post #10
patejam wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't be surprised if they start out with "last mile" drivers to deal with off-highway driving.

But the last mile is where driverless trucks are most useful. For long haul, you can just use trains.

Trains can't haul produce and other refrigerated product.

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#138

Post by dsfyu404ed »

peterwwillis wrote: post #104
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

Don't forget C) attempt B and jacknife your truck across several lanes killing the occupants of the car that runs into the side of your trailer...

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#139

Post by SixSigma »

peterwwillis wrote: post #104
ctvo wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Trucks are way more complicated to drive. Once they're up to cruising speed, they're easy. But it's everything leading up to that point which is hard. Dealing with gear changes, airbrakes, load shifting, other vehicles that will inevitably cut you off, and much more. The mechanical aspects of controlling a large truck and accounting for the variables is probably the easiest part of the problem. Things involving hum…

Yes. Truckers have to deal with a sort of standard "road safety dilemma" all the time, which can be boiled down to this: A trucker is driving a 40 ton truck at 65mph. A passenger car with a family of four cuts in front of it, and the distance is closing fast. A passenger car takes roughly 315 feet to come to a complete stop. A fully loaded truck takes 525 feet. The trucker now has to make a decision. A) Do I slam on…

or, apply full brakes, apply full audible warning and swerve at the last possible moment, while calling the emergency services to put them on alert.

But how common is your scenario ?

I consider this a more critical failure :

The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration suspects that as many as 28% of commercial truck drivers have sleep apnea.

The Sleep Medicine Division surmised that nearly a 250,000, persons fall asleep while driving each day of the year.

Nearly half of semi-truck drivers have admitted to actually ‘drifting off’ while driving a long-haul route.

https://www.hg.org/article.asp?id=29866

Re: The driverless truck is coming, and it’s going to automate millions of jobs

#140

Post by iofj »

Homunculiheaded wrote: post #103

A very useful visual to add next to this is "The Most Common Job In Every State"[0] map from NPR's Planet Money. As soon as I was aware of the research in autonomous driving I was pretty confident trucking would be the first industry hit. Until I saw that map I had no sense of how major of a disruption this could be. [0] http://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/02/05/382664837/map-t...

It's not just the jobs. Self-driving trucks will transform an industry where large amounts of humans are necessary into (yet another) industry where capital is the only thing that matters. Once trucks are self-driving, larger companies will gain the advantage and one of the main economic sectors dominated by small to medium companies will become dominated by large international businesses.
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