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How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

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Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#261

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not try a backtest? Pick a point in time (say, Jan 1, 2011). Pick another data point (say, Jan 1 2015). See which variables explain the rise in house prices the best?

Because past behavior is not indicative of future behavior.

Never?

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this true? The general stereotype when I lived in the UK is that the poor were mostly non-workers who subsisted based on public assistance. If true, then they have plenty of time. In the US this is certainly true. The lowest earning category has 30 minutes/day more leisure time than the highest. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11.htm Anyone know where to find the UK equivalent of the ATUS?

In addition to the people working multiple part time minimum wage jobs to get by, there are other time costs associated with being poor. Poor often don't have a personal vehicle, so many hours per week can be spent on a bus, bike, or walking, especially in places with less public transport. Now the following probably doesn't apply to poor in cities, where you often have amenities in easy walking distance, but in the…

If your theory were true, the poor should have less leisure time than the non-poor. Yet according to the ATUS, they don't.

I'll break down why your theories are wrong. Most poor people don't work at all, and many of those who do are only part time. So this idea of "multiple part time minimum wage jobs" applies only to a very small number of people.

http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/cps/a-profile-of-the-working...

74% of poor households actually do have a vehicle (compared to 92% of the country), so that doesn't look like it's a big factor. 65% of the poor have a washing machine (compared to 82% of the country), so again that's probably not driving this gap.

http://www.census.gov/prod/2008pubs/h150-07.pdf

Even if the premises of your theory were true, there would have to be some countervailing factor since the conclusion (that the poor have less leisure time) is wrong.

But maybe the UK is wildly different. Can you present any data sets to demonstrate this?

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#263
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wait, What? There is a law against giving racist real estate advice? That, isn't actually true, is it? You are joking? Is that actually true?!

Relax. Even if there is such a law it certainly is not illegal in USA to "advocate (...) opinions (...) in public". See what happened last time someone thought advocating opinions was illegal [1]... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citizens_United_v._FEC

The original poster is talking specifically about real estate professionals.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#264

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this true? The general stereotype when I lived in the UK is that the poor were mostly non-workers who subsisted based on public assistance. If true, then they have plenty of time. In the US this is certainly true. The lowest earning category has 30 minutes/day more leisure time than the highest. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11.htm Anyone know where to find the UK equivalent of the ATUS?

The numbers may be skewed by retired people which is not absolutely clear in a lot of these data points when people casually cite them online (not saying your sources are). Working poor is quite common in the US. With chronic unemployment where over time individuals face depression you would be better off correlating depression and low income with downward economic projections rather than free time. Rates of alcoholi…

Older people (I don't have data on retired vs non-retired) are the least likely to be poor. So if the data is skewed by the retired, it's in the opposite direction.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/incpovhlth/2013...

Working poor is far less common than non-working poor in the US. Non-poor people work a lot more than poor people (hardly surprising, since working brings money and makes you less poor).

http://www.bls.gov/opub/reports/cps/a-profile-of-the-working...

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#265
post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this true? The general stereotype when I lived in the UK is that the poor were mostly non-workers who subsisted based on public assistance. If true, then they have plenty of time. In the US this is certainly true. The lowest earning category has 30 minutes/day more leisure time than the highest. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/atus.t11.htm Anyone know where to find the UK equivalent of the ATUS?

Working crazy hours across three jobs to make ends meet is definitely a thing, and not at all rare.

Do you have data to demonstrate this, for either the US or UK?

I'm not sure what you mean by "rare", but I'd be extremely surprised if you have data showing the number of poor adults in this situation exceeds 10%.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#266

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not try a backtest? Pick a point in time (say, Jan 1, 2011). Pick another data point (say, Jan 1 2015). See which variables explain the rise in house prices the best?

Because past behavior is not indicative of future behavior.

Which is why economics is not a science.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#267
post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A less suggestive alternative might be to replace fried chicken with Chinese take-out.

Not quite sure if that's sarcasm... In the US I would try to figure out whatever the region's blue collar / working poor's food choices might be. Usually it's big label fast food franchises but there are locality-specific ones. In the southeast where I am, barbecue places are rather common and eaten frequently yet absent from a lot of affluent communities even though it's a traditional food that's eaten across socioe…

Wasn't meant as sarcasm, but maybe my experience is colored by living in NYC. Chinese take-outs are common in poorer neighborhoods there. It's not difficult to find blocks that have more than one.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#268
post #178

This analysis is simplistic and flawed. It asserts a correlation between the fried chicken/coffee shop ratio index and home price, which is reasonable enough. It then assumes that homes that are undervalued vis-a-vis their implied value by the FC/CS index are up and coming. This likely makes sense in an environment of overall rising house prices. However if house prices are falling or stagnant overall it may be the c…

If I am understanding you correctly it seems that you only have an issue if coffee shop count is 'lagging the market' but you never actually say whether you believe it is?

It seems that you are just pointing out the obvious; this person's analysis assumes that coffee shop count is a leading indicator but you are not giving any reason why this is a flawed assumption.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#269
post #252

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's empirically false. "Racism" is whatever speech will convince enough people to call you "racist", and one person in twenty is more than enough to do it.

Whats empirically false changes person to person and culture to culture as demonstrated by your arbitrary definition of racism. I do not define Racism as actions other find racist.

I'm not interested in a debate about the meaning of truth - replace empirical correctness with everyday practicality and my point stands. You're free to define the term "racism" however you want to. However, you might regret ignoring your personal and cultural context if you care about not getting called racist.

Re: How to know if where you live is “up and coming”: fried chicken vs. coffee shops

#270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Monosodium glutamate you can get it in a powder like salt. It is a seasoning that provides "the essence of flavor" or umami flavoring which makes lots of bland stuff taste way better without necessarily having lots of salt. Some claim it is bad for the health or causes MSG symptom complex with an array of common conditions like headaches but there's little to no scientific evidence that this isn't psychosomatic. http…

Oh so that's the powder that guy on the street is adding when preparing my meal... Thanks. I didn't know about it before.

Street food can be good but it's pretty much the digestive equivalent of hitting the double black diamonds at a new ski area on the first day.
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