What are the chances this data was available to report prior to the election?
Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#892Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
How do we know that there are no significant long-term side-effects? These vaccines seem to be developed so quickly while others take years or even decades... I do not know if this is irrational fear, but I fear that this is rushed and there might be potentially serious side-effects that are missed. Why am I being down-voted? Is it really of no concern?
I for one agree with you. There is no rush to get vaccinated.
Personally, I doubt I will get it at all. The authorities have a very long way to go to win back my trust, after the chain of screwups over the last year.
We've seen that they will lie to us, we've seen that they apply rules to us that they themselves don't follow, and we've seen them take advantage of the situation for their own benefit.
It is a huge shame that so many people are not going to take it solely because they've betrayed our trust so many times that now that they might be doing something good, we won't cooperate.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#893Earlier quoted context omitted.
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
> Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. I am not sure this is true. At least some articles I read attribute the successes in many Asian countries to aggressive contact tracing and quarantining. You don't ask people kindly to self-isolate, you move them to hotels and quarantine them. You don't ask them to remember their contacts, you aggressively investigate them using every source of data available. I thi…
Taiwan did ask people kindly to self-isolate at home in most cases, and it worked extremely well. Certainly a lot better than telling travellers returning from high-risk areas to go straight to work the next day, as the brilliant minds in charge did in some other places.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#894Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?
How do we know that there are no significant long-term side-effects? These vaccines seem to be developed so quickly while others take years or even decades... I do not know if this is irrational fear, but I fear that this is rushed and there might be potentially serious side-effects that are missed. Why am I being down-voted? Is it really of no concern?
I just ignore the down votes. You probably hitting the target.
This is of concern. The medical industry has a history of covering up the direct know effects of their medicine, AKA poisons. That system has been know for a very long time to lead with arrogance and it sometimes takes them a very long time to pull things they know are killing people. Its just too much $$$.
See vioxx and merck, for just one example.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#895Earlier quoted context omitted.
Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…
> Mutations aren't a serious concern. Because when viruses mutate it's the strains that are more infectious and less lethal that win out. If only it worked that way! It doesn't, of course. A random walk can lead anywhere in the adjacent landscape. That includes moving up in lethality without moving down in infectiousness. What you have written here is plausible-sounding nonsense; if it were true, the 1918 flu would n…
Moving up in lethality while maintaining the same "infectiousness" still results in a real-world decrease in infection rate, as more infected hosts will die (and/or infected hosts will die more quickly), preventing them from spreading it further.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#896Earlier quoted context omitted.
I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…
> With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread Aren't you assuming 100% coverage at 90% effectiveness? What if it's - say - only 50% coverage, at 90% effectiveness. That's not looking so good. I'm still trying to understand why an otherwise young and healthy person would want to get take one, or more likely multiple, shots of a C19 vaccine, given the risk from C19 is so low. What's the benef…
To return to a less paranoid culture is reason enough. The possibility of international travel. To prevent the spread to the vulnerable.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#897Earlier quoted context omitted.
Good time to buy shares in almost anything that's not related to online meetings or home deliveries, to be honest. Stock markets are skyrocketing.
I saw some claims on Twitter that zoom took a hit, though there’s enough random noise in the market that I never know what to believe
Zoom took a hit partly because of this, and partly because of an FTC settlement that is requiring them to beef up their security and open themselves up to security audits, as a result of them basically lying about how their encryption worked.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#898Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shipping hundreds of thousands of doses of vaccine at -80C is more than a “minor logistical challenge”. First, you’d never ship in a liquid nitrogen dewar. It would be a massive logistics bottleneck considering the weight of dewars and the volume you'd be shipping (Pfizer already has deals secured for hundreds of millions of doses). And plus, these are packaged vaccines - a glass vial with a label, in a paper box, wi…
>Shipping at -10C is a massive logistical challenge. This is definitely false - refrigerated trailers are pretty normal. A lot of goods are shipped in similar trailers.
Logistics is way more than just refrigerated trailers. You've basically described 1 step of a 20 step process.
That's why their are specialist delivery services for cold chain. And cold chain medicine is way more complex than say, cold chain food.
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#899Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is always some effect whenever any foreign molecule is injected in your blood. Simply knowing ONE 'mechanism of action' doesn't tell you the 'mechanism of reaction' or all the other cross reactions that happen. It also doesn't tell you what will happen when some one is already on medication for other health issues. The body is simply too complex to many any definitive statement like that. So there are many reas…
Do you have any examples of a vaccine that's had side effects not show up for years after it went into use? I'm not saying there hasn't been—I really don't know.
Aside - I re-read my earlier comment and I don't mean to come off as a crazy anti-vax person!
I work in vaccines, but I can't think of a vaccine that was completely recalled due to long-term safety issues of the top of my head. Most recalls happen because one lot or the other had some production issues. Certainly, vaccines are extremely safe by the time they get approved - because the approval process is careful, methodical and takes years.
However, in this case, if a COVID vaccine is approved by the end of this year or in the near-term, we won't have any long-term data, and so I do worry about those aspects, about the compounds used in the final formulation as well as the untested nature of RNA/DNA based vaccines.
A few places to do research for those interested:
https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/datasets.html?
https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/safety-availabi...
Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection
#900Earlier quoted context omitted.
Shipping hundreds of thousands of doses of vaccine at -80C is more than a “minor logistical challenge”. First, you’d never ship in a liquid nitrogen dewar. It would be a massive logistics bottleneck considering the weight of dewars and the volume you'd be shipping (Pfizer already has deals secured for hundreds of millions of doses). And plus, these are packaged vaccines - a glass vial with a label, in a paper box, wi…
This is a fundamentally easy thing to solve. Developing a safe and effective vaccine -- fundamentally hard. Developing a nuclear weapon -- fundamentally hard. Developing a quantum computer -- fundamentally hard. Shipping something cold at a large scale? Hard, but not fundamentally hard. We'll solve it. There's no fucking way the vaccine effort is stopped by refrigeration needs.
I love the declarative statements on HN by people who have zero practical experience in a given area.