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Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

bbc.co.uk

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Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#491

Post by The_rationalist »

lbeltrame wrote: post #271
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

Where is the preprint?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#492

Post by 6d6b73 »

Tin-foil hat ON mode enabled:

- not released before the elections on purpose

- released right before Trump's team is about to try and change the results with their legal challenges

Market will go up like crazy. People in the known will sell their stocks.

Big crash on Thursday/Friday.

Of course just speculating, but if I was part of the NWO that what I would do :)

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#493

Post by aphextron »

SomeoneFromCA wrote: post #456
dbancajas wrote: post #438

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Risk of COVID19 long term effects is far worse than mRNA side effects IMO.

We do not know yet.

>We do not know yet.

Sure we do. mRNA vaccines have been under development for over a decade now. And while none have been approved for human use yet, it's not for lack of safety data. There have been zero serious adverse events reported in the Moderna or Pfizer phase 1, 2, and 3 trials. The only side effects are mild fatigue, headache, and soreness that you would associate with an immune response. Furthermore there is no possible way that the vaccine can even cause long term effects; the mRNA breaks down naturally in the body almost immediately. Any side effects will be immediately present and related to acute immune response. Worrying about some vague long term "what if" problems that have no mechanism for action is just non-scientific magical thinking.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#494

Post by procinct »

snarf21 wrote: post #430
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

This is good news but I'm worried about the mutation already showing up in minks in Denmark. Minks apparently have a near identical respiratory system. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/denmark-plans-kill-15-mil...

Fortunately it sounds very contained. All cases (fewer than 15) were confined to a single location and there haven’t been any more detected since September. So most likely the mutation is now extinct.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#495

Post by jwineinger »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #305
lbeltrame wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The latest data (preprint, not peer reviewed etc etc) mention memory B and T cells up to 8 months after recovery from the illness. This means that an immunity of one year is probably likely. This would be probably enough to quench the spread, but not to eradicate the virus.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

I haven't seen much chatter about it, but this will only be prescribed for adults (18+) correct?

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#497

Post by alisonkisk »

DanBC wrote: post #437
jakozaur wrote: post #214

Good: + ~90% of individuals achieve immunity. + no significant side-effects. Not so good: - two doses needed, 3 weeks apart, immunity after one month from first dose. Slow rollout. - -80C storage and transport needed. Challenging, but doable in developed countries, but still may slow down mass rollout. Not feasible in many developing countries. I still wonder about long-term immunity. Anyone can share any insight?

Also not so good: this is a corporate press release. The data will come later.

That seems wrong. The data probably came first, but in less popular publications.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#498

Post by TomVDB »

gizmo wrote: post #372
bufferoverflow wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think we can eradicate it by contact tracing. With 90% efficiency it will be extremely tough for the virus to spread. For any new cases you simply test everyone in the vicinity of the infected person. But I don't think even that will be necessary. 90% efficiency reduces R so much, it will probably die out on its own. The real problem is mutations that are not covered by the vaccine. If it mutates as efficiently as…

Contract tracing hasn't worked at scale anywhere. It's a nice idea conceptually, but the problem is psychological. People stop caring about tracing when 98% of all trace connections are false positives. If a person is infectious for a week and the r0 is around 1 then only 1 person of all the people they've been in contact with will actually contract the virus on average. The other 50+ people, assuming they can even b…

“Anywhere” as in “the western world”?

Because contact tracing seems to work very well at scale in Asia.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#499

Post by xxs »

refurb wrote: post #51
londons_explore wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While it's a minor logistical challenge, it's simple enough to ship this in a liquid nitrogen dewar. Even very small cities will have liquid nitrogen facilities. Shipping from the nearest city to most of the population sounds very doable in 24 hours. Remember you only need to get most of the population to halt the spread. If there's some tiny village 3 days hike away in the rainforest, you can skip them.

Shipping hundreds of thousands of doses of vaccine at -80C is more than a “minor logistical challenge”. First, you’d never ship in a liquid nitrogen dewar. It would be a massive logistics bottleneck considering the weight of dewars and the volume you'd be shipping (Pfizer already has deals secured for hundreds of millions of doses). And plus, these are packaged vaccines - a glass vial with a label, in a paper box, wi…

>Shipping at -10C is a massive logistical challenge.

This is definitely false - refrigerated trailers are pretty normal. A lot of goods are shipped in similar trailers.

Re: Covid vaccine: First ‘milestone’ vaccine offers 90% protection

#500

Post by markus92 »

aquadrop wrote: post #351
Roonerelli wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Excellent news it's so high. For comparison, MMR is 88% effective on Mumps "One dose of MMR vaccine is 93% effective against measles, 78% effective against mumps, and 97% effective against rubella. Two doses of MMR vaccine are 97% effective against measles and 88% effective against mumps." https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/vpd/mmr/public/index.html#:~:te... .

If new pfizer's vaccine has similar numbers, e.g. 90% after two shots and 80% after one shot, can it be more efficient to just use one shot, considering current race with time since we need to deliver vaccine to billions of people? Are there numbers for protection level after one shot somewhere? I couldn't find it at first glance.

The phase 3 only did two shots. Afaik the only one shot vaccine in phase 3 trials is the J&J one.

Looking at the phase 1/2 results, the booster shot seems to help a lot in getting the antibody levels up. See Figure 4 of their paper, https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2027906

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