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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#831

Post by barrkel »

wwweston wrote: post #722
m_ke wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The…

> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%. There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real e…

The value of land rented is mostly based on the rent that can be charged. Loans which use the land as collateral need the value to stay high in order to roll over (refinance) the loan.

It's conceivably better for major real-estate holders to rent the land out at their preferred rate one or two months in a year, and leave it unoccupied otherwise, than accept reduced rates. The former gives a fig leaf for rental value, which props up the land value, which enables refinance. The latter admits that rental value has dropped, which would lower the land value, which would cause refinancing to fail.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#832

Post by hpkuarg »

josephmosby wrote: post #824
hpkuarg wrote: post #823

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious, where else have you lived with such a great balance of everything?

#1 suggestion: Washington, DC. Museums (the Smithsonian museums), bars, restaurants (one of the Michelin cities), proximity to nature (there's a national park that cuts through the middle of the city, there's the National Arboretum, and you're about an hour drive from numerous state parks in Virginia and Maryland) #2 suggestion: Chicago, IL. Museums (check), bars (check), restaurants (also a Michelin city), nature (L…

> a national park that cuts through the middle of the city

Come now, you aren't suggesting that the National Mall counts as "proximity to nature" ;-)

I've spent some time in all three cities and live in one; none of them really offer the same ease of access to nature as does San Francisco, if you count nature as necessarily including some level of remoteness from the built-up environment.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#833

Post by racl101 »

captaincole wrote: post #102

I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…

Don't forget the poop on the streets.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#834

Post by C1sc0cat »

wolco wrote: post #552
radicaldreamer wrote: post #530

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only in the short to medium term... the characteristics which make SF an attractive place to live (just like NYC) are resilient and sticky. If you consider a post-covid world 5 years from now, do you think that SF with it's museums, bars, restaurants, and proximity to nature will be an unattractive place to live? Do you think that remote-first/remote-only companies where the majority of employees are outside of the b…

It's like the stock market, buy on the dip. This year would be a great year to buy the sf property if you see yourself there in 5 years.

Yes if your cash rich now would be the time to think about buying especially if your landlord is over stretched

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#835

Post by evanb »

josephmosby wrote: post #824
hpkuarg wrote: post #823

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm curious, where else have you lived with such a great balance of everything?

#1 suggestion: Washington, DC. Museums (the Smithsonian museums), bars, restaurants (one of the Michelin cities), proximity to nature (there's a national park that cuts through the middle of the city, there's the National Arboretum, and you're about an hour drive from numerous state parks in Virginia and Maryland) #2 suggestion: Chicago, IL. Museums (check), bars (check), restaurants (also a Michelin city), nature (L…

Rock Creek Park is a National Park.

https://www.nps.gov/rocr/index.htm

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#836

Post by C1sc0cat »

thinkharderdev wrote: post #829
WWLink wrote: post #613

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's silly that they even close. What's the point? Can someone enlighten me on why bars and stuff close at 1am? Thanks!

Bars are loud. People smoking outside of bars late at night tend to be very loud and sometimes get in fights. If you're trying to go to sleep, it's annoying to have a crowd of drunk young men screaming at each other outside your window.

So the bar wont lose its licence - I recall seeing JWZ's posts about how many loops they went through with dna lounge

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#837

Post by C1sc0cat »

Cthulhu_ wrote: post #782
thu2111 wrote: post #777

Earlier quoted context omitted.

British people? I'd kill for a local place that regularly served Sunday roast with a Yorkshire pudding. There was one in my city for a while but sadly it was at the edge and they didn't sell enough to keep it up, as such roasts need to be prepared a long way in advance, so you had to pre-order. Always love to grab myself one when I'm in the UK though. Discovered the other day a restaurant that sells afternoon cream t…

I would very much like an English style pub that serves full English in the mornings. In the UK the price point is also very attractive; a meal that lasts you for most of the day for often less than 5 pounds.

There are not any diners/cafes that do that in SF - one rule of thumb in the uk is if the beat PC's eat there its good.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#838

Post by ghaff »

dragonwriter wrote: post #766
burfog wrote: post #710

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The SFMoma & DeYoung are not first class museums. They have modern art. New York may beat San Francisco, but it is not particularly good. The winning city, without any doubt, is Washington, D.C. Also beating San Francisco: Houston, TX Huntsville, AL Pearlington, MS Kennedy Space Center, FL Dayton, OH Seattle, WA San Diego, CA Chantilly, VA Ashland, NE Unless you actually go to the same museum again and again, your ow…

> The SFMoma & DeYoung are not first class museums. They have modern art. These two statements aren't even related, and while the first is subjective, the second is misleading in regards DeYoung, which is not focussed on modern art.

The DeYoung is mostly special exhibits, right? I've been to a couple that were pretty good but, in general, SF is pretty weak in terms of museums. (And I admit I just don't personally care for much of what's in SFMoma.) Though that's generally true of the West Coast with a few notable exceptions like the Getty.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#839

Post by nsnick »

an_opabinia wrote: post #674
htormey wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I manage a team of 10 people in San Francisco and confirm a similar pattern. 8 of them have moved out of their SF apartments either to move somewhere else more spacious or in with their parents outside of the Bay Area. Other people I know at my company have renegotiated rents. Most but not all are open to the idea of moving back depending on how things play out over the next 6-12 months. I think their is still a big…

> the wild card is city/state taxes in the aftermath of all this. The city already wildly undertaxes due to Prop 13. So the effect is minimal.

The effect of taxes on people who don’t own houses is not minimal.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#840

Post by jupp0r »

jdkardia wrote: post #646
blisterpeanuts wrote: post #641

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's great four months a year, but what about the rest of the year? No one can eat outdoors in 20F, or bike to work in the snow and ice. SF does have the advantage of year round biking weather.

I would beg to differ. 3 season biking is easy as pie, and 4 season with just a little effort. there was only maybe a month out of the year I couldn't bike to work in Minneapolis or Chicago, all it takes is infrastructure and the right gear.

True for you and me, insurmountable inconveniences for the average person.
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