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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#721

Post by 9nGQluzmnq3M »

rtlfe wrote: post #657
9nGQluzmnq3M wrote: post #651

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Property is extremely expensive in HK, so it's long been a hell-hole for the poor: https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2017/05/the-coffin-homes-o... That said, the city does not have visible homeless or crime problems of most large US cities, partly because you can legally get a coffin for $300/month.

> That said, the city does not have visible homeless or crime problems of most large US cities. Why not? Are there support systems to give people shelter and reduce the need for crimes of desperation?

Hong Kong has an imperfect but subsistence-level dole system (CSSA), coffin house style bad but cheap housing (notably absent in SF), less of a drug problem, and a more functional system for taking care of the mentally ill.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#722

Post by wwweston »

m_ke wrote: post #579
ssalazar wrote: post #555

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many of the bars, restaurants, and smaller cultural institutions will be gone. The larger, well-funded museums and nature will stay of course. But much of what is interesting about a city comes from the people who live there and shape its culture. The San Francisco of today is very different from 10 or 20 years ago, and will be very different 10 years from now. This is recoverable, sure, but its not guaranteed, and i…

I live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The…

> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly

I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%.

There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real estate markets are now driven more by massive pools of capital trying to soak up opportunities than they are by demand on short-to-mid-term horizons.

But I don't know enough to say for certain and explain how, and I'm hoping that someone can tell me why/how I'm stupid.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#723

Post by dongvsascript »

danbolt wrote: post #557
dongvsascript wrote: post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i have an honest question here. i haven't lived in sf -just visited. i have however been to most states and about 40 countries for comparison. food - most of what i saw was not good food. hipsterish overpriced food made by chefs trying to show off by putting a twist on dishes -not to be good, just to be different or weird. tiny portions, not tasting above average, on a huge plate. all presentation, not actual taste.…

> bars -there are very few attractive girls at bars, or at offices, or even on the street, compared to just about anywhere in the world. and if that's not why you go to bars, i have to ask -you'd enjoy going to bars with mostly men? because that's cool too -once in a rare while. I don't think everyone goes to pubs or bars for the same reasons as you might.

the reason they go is to socialize. both men and women prefer to socialize in an environment that's not mostly men. bars were listed as a reason people live in sf. i say it's not, because a sausage fest that closes at 1am is not something people find as a reason to live in a city. the people who do are the people who sit at their weird guy-table in a normal bar full of girls, afraid to walk up and say hello.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#724

Post by dirtyaura »

blisterpeanuts wrote: post #641
m_ke wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The…

That's great four months a year, but what about the rest of the year? No one can eat outdoors in 20F, or bike to work in the snow and ice. SF does have the advantage of year round biking weather.

Cycling year around in New York should be relatively easy.

There is winter cycling culture in much harsher climates https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/feb/12/ice-cycles-no...

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#725

Post by ulfw »

Tiktaalik wrote: post #241
justchilly wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you make $250k in SF (sounds high, but about average for the people I know that are leaving SF), state income tax alone is $19,996. If you make that in Texas, state income tax is $0. That $20k/year is for many people a bigger deal than the cost of living. Most people I know leaving were home owners or rent controlled. Source: moved to Austin in June.

lmao at the idea of caring about $20k when you make $250k

You DO realise that's not the only taxes paid, right???

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#726

Post by diogenescynic »

wwweston wrote: post #722
m_ke wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The…

> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%. There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real e…

Rents in SF are already down 20%: https://socketsite.com/archives/2020/08/asking-rents-in-san-...

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#727

Post by odessacubbage »

redisman wrote: post #664
2arrs2ells wrote: post #635

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you live in the Bay Area? Your take doesn’t match my experience at all... * Most of my friends are members of one museum (or have season tickets to SHN/SFJazz/etc) * Most of my friends go hiking in Marin or Big Basin or whenever at least once a month, and spend a weekend somewhere like Big Sur or Yosemite a couple times a year. Bay Area nature is unparalleled. SF may be in a tough place for a while, but don’t unde…

> Bay Area nature is unparalleled Puget Sound and Denver metros might disagree

shhhh don't tell them

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#728

Post by AIX2ESXI »

kilroy123 wrote: post #357
AIX2ESXI wrote: post #326

Been a professional IT worker since 1999. Most of my sysadmin roles have always been on site with occasional remote work. Over the years, I've been able to swing working for a few weeks at a time while traveling abroad. Currently based in Los Angeles and my organization is allowing us to work remote. Looking to just move abroad to Ukraine and lower my costs of living while immersing myself into a new culture and esca…

Born and raised in California and I've been in the tech industry since 2007. I have been living abroad for almost 6 years and couldn't recommend it enough. It requires some flexibility but it's been an amazing adventure.

Yeah, I feel that. Not much keeping me here now and I miss the sensation of international exploration. So pissed that my favorite digital nomad spots are blocked due to passport restrictions. We'll see what the future holds.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#729

Post by birdyrooster »

wwweston wrote: post #722
m_ke wrote: post #579

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I live in Brooklyn and have seen 2-3 business close a week around me. At this point almost every other storefront is vacant (many of which have been since before the pandemic). My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly and create an opportunity for a lot more small businesses in a year or so, most of which I assume will be restaurants and other "experience" based shops. The…

> My hope is that this will bring down commercial real estate prices down significantly I'm going to predict that this will not happen. More specifically, that it will be unusual in general for rents or prices anywhere to drop any more than 10%. There's something odd going on and my best guess is that there are (a) accounting/tax practices that provide incentives for vacancy with certain nominal values and (b) real e…

Rent in SJC is down by at least 10% if not much more. I am in an apartment now that used to cost $3500/mo for only $2600/mo now. A month or so ago, I moved out of my dilapidated, old roach infested apartment I was paying $2750 for elsewhere in San Jose. Yeah lots of businesses have closed and people moved out, but the discount units are filling up and businesses are reopening.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#730

Post by AIX2ESXI »

vmception wrote: post #423
kilroy123 wrote: post #357

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Born and raised in California and I've been in the tech industry since 2007. I have been living abroad for almost 6 years and couldn't recommend it enough. It requires some flexibility but it's been an amazing adventure.

I live in SF I bounced between hostels and luxury hotels and airbnbs in central Europe last year, it was about $600 per month. With the luxury hotels being subsidized by reward points. I pay over 10x more than that for pretty decadent living in SF. Not a complaint, I know what I'm doing. Just perspective. I would highly recommend living abroad indefinitely.

Much appreciated. Looking into now. Need to use my Chase Sapphire rewards more or get an Amex travel card. Only Ukraine is open right now. Thinking about Odessa so that I can study the classical arts in between Sysadmin duties and life.
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