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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#81

Post by hirako2000 »

bobuk wrote: post #41
Hamuko wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't the islands full of Russian people? I imagine a referendum wouldn't yield a result that was unfavourable to Russia.

it depends on the Japan's proposition. If they will propose to guarantee jobs for every new citizen with typical for Japan salary - it will be enough because the exchange rate of Russian ruble is dropped by more than 100% in the last 5 days.

0.0091, down to 0.0075 is far from 100% by the way, a drop of 100% or more would imply the currency is below zero no matter its previous value.

so what we see here is a 20%, max 25% drop of the rubble to the dollar. bringing people's view towards reality is a difficult but much needed change to wish for.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#82

Post by jorvi »

jakeinspace wrote: post #32
rjzzleep wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just yesterday I was thinking: What if we piss off a nuclear power all around the world now? Wouldn't that be fortunate timing to solve global warming? FTFY. I mean sure we only have another 50 years before the planet is unlivable for us, but why desperately try to accelerate it? EDIT: here is Russias military doctrine from 2000 https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2000-05/russias-military-doc...

The planet will not be unlivable in 50 years. Larger areas of it will be, but most of the landmass will still be hospitable. There may be significant collapse of agricultural production, but again, that will affect the poorer countries mainly. I suppose some massive and unpredictable ecological collapse could conceivably happen by then, which would I guess have the potential of severely damaging food production, but…

I can’t find the source right now, but nuclear winter is projected to drop temperatures by 20 to 40°C . Not a single country in the world has the infrastructure or reserves to deal with that.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#83

Post by raverbashing »

xxs wrote: post #70
inglor_cz wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EU is not a country, but it has its own economic and security interests. The region is poor, but adding a statelet with 1 million people into a union of 450 million is a negligible burden. And local economy is already sort-of semiintegrated with the Lithuanian and the Polish one. There used to be quite a lot of cross border trade in peace times there.

I still can't imagine Lithuania agreeing to have a massive influx of Russians with an open border. In certain regions in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania the population speaks Russian exclusively.

Yeah, Russia is the specialist in puppets states (and rulers).

There's no good solution for Koningsberg.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#84

Post by Armisael16 »

SideburnsOfDoom wrote: post #42
Freak_NL wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When asking the question “what is the value of those islands/rocks-in-the-sea?” the answer is always 'EEZ boundaries'. I.e., having extra bits of land in the middle of the sea enlarges your exclusive economic zone where you can exploit resources in the ocean and below the ocean bed (oil) significantly. Which is why so many disputes exist over really boring bits of rock jutting out of the water.

See also: Rockall, a rock in the North Atlantic which is "25 metres (80 ft) wide and 31 m (102 ft) long" all of which gets wet in a storm. The UK claims it as territory. 1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockall

The UK has also explicitly disavowed an EEZ extension based on Rockall (UNCLOS doesn’t allow it).

(They do claim territorial seas around it, but that’s 12nmi instead of 200nmi.)

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#85

Post by inglor_cz »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

The reason is probably because the average American didn't go hungry because of the loss. Also, Americans are, for all their diversity, fairly mixed and culturally similar.

OTOH, if you commit a behemoth like Austria-Hungary where 40 per cent of the country belongs to disadvantaged minority ethnicities and then you lose the war and the population is reduced to digging roots from the ground and making soups out of leather boots (I am not exaggerating), there isn't any reason to continue the existence of such a structure left. Only fear that the uprising may get you killed, but if the soldiers are demoralized too, they won't shoot.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#86

Post by Andrew_nenakhov »

_ph_ wrote: post #52
decremental wrote: post #15

This is different because we like Japan but we don't like Russia. If Russia didn't want the entire world to turn on them, they shouldn't have illegally invaded Afghanistan.

Afghanistan was bad, but they were almost forgiven internationally, especially as one could pretend "that was the Sovjet Union". But with the invasion of the Ukraine, that is all washed away, Russia is as ugly as the old SU.

So far, the only major power who hasn't (yet) invaded Afghanistan is China. And I don't recall anyone invading it legally.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#87

Post by pelorat »

ineedasername wrote: post #54
Aethylia wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do we like Japan? They have a shameful history that they have refused to acknowledge. I view them very negatively.

I view them through the lens of how they exist today, not decades before nearly everyone in the world was alive. I acknowledge their history but do not judge the current leaders or population by it.

Japan is still ruled by conservative traditionalists with questionable views.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#88

Post by heavenlyblue »

bobuk wrote: post #41
Hamuko wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't the islands full of Russian people? I imagine a referendum wouldn't yield a result that was unfavourable to Russia.

it depends on the Japan's proposition. If they will propose to guarantee jobs for every new citizen with typical for Japan salary - it will be enough because the exchange rate of Russian ruble is dropped by more than 100% in the last 5 days.

> he exchange rate of Russian ruble is dropped by more than 100% in the last 5 days.

So is it negative now?

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#89

Post by pjerem »

api wrote: post #73
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917 This just brought to mind the idea that it's remarkable that America has weathered at least one and possibly three (depending on the definition of success) lost wars in the past 50 years without severe political consequences: Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. It wasn'…

I don’t think we can count US as an "authoritarian regime".

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#90

Post by KaiserPro »

mcphage wrote: post #80
ineedasername wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I too have taken Russia's actions as both precedent and the distraction needed to make my own move. I declared the basement of my house (finished, furnished) complete with bathroom, sink and microwave, to be my own sovereign domain. The consequences for violating that territory will be such as none in my household have ever in their history experienced.

> I declared the basement of my house (finished, furnished) complete with bathroom, sink and microwave, to be my own sovereign domain. How far along your sewer pipes does your domain extend?

Mine is covered by international treaty.
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