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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#51

Post by inglor_cz »

xxs wrote: post #47
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

EU is not a country, but it has its own economic and security interests.

The region is poor, but adding a statelet with 1 million people into a union of 450 million is a negligible burden. And local economy is already sort-of semiintegrated with the Lithuanian and the Polish one. There used to be quite a lot of cross border trade in peace times there.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#52

Post by _ph_ »

decremental wrote: post #15

This is different because we like Japan but we don't like Russia. If Russia didn't want the entire world to turn on them, they shouldn't have illegally invaded Afghanistan.

Afghanistan was bad, but they were almost forgiven internationally, especially as one could pretend "that was the Sovjet Union". But with the invasion of the Ukraine, that is all washed away, Russia is as ugly as the old SU.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#54

Post by ineedasername »

Aethylia wrote: post #28
decremental wrote: post #15

This is different because we like Japan but we don't like Russia. If Russia didn't want the entire world to turn on them, they shouldn't have illegally invaded Afghanistan.

Do we like Japan? They have a shameful history that they have refused to acknowledge. I view them very negatively.

I view them through the lens of how they exist today, not decades before nearly everyone in the world was alive. I acknowledge their history but do not judge the current leaders or population by it.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#55

Post by inglor_cz »

ketzu wrote: post #50
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> Vladivostok used to be a Chinese town once, and the Chinese hate the old Unequal Treaties. Could you provide some links? I would like to learn more about that. As far as I knew until just now the treaties between russia and china aren't all that old and the PRC has no claims on any currently russian land. But I am not well informed about the topic at all. (After some research: The ROC and freer press were quite unh…

I corrected that. Apparently, there was just a fishing village there.

As of March 8, 2022, China has no claims on Russian land, but history shows that if a juicy opportunity turns up, countries start to come up with claims that were previously forgotten.

Yes, this scenario is unlikely. But not beyond reasonable doubt. Multinational empires have imploded and disintegrated before (Tsarist Russia, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire), and a lost war was the usual cause.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#56

Post by petercooper »

samwillis wrote: post #24
sharikous wrote: post #11

What would be the value (economical, strategical) of those islands for Japan? Apart from the sentimental one?

I imagin if it’s anything like the UK and all it’s various islands it’s about fishing and drilling rights. So much comes down to natural resources.

For anyone unaware of the place, consider where Scotland's westernmost point is! :-) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rockall

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#57

Post by _ph_ »

On the one side, it is easy now to bring up those old conflicts in a moment when Russia is weak and distracted. On the other side, it could be an attempt at supporting Ukraine, as to draw out the efforts of Russia even further and give a clear signal to anyone, especially the high ranking military, that Russia might be stretched between a lot of competing crises, if they can't make peace in Ukraine.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#58

Post by mytailorisrich »

jcfrei wrote: post #45
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with.

Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed by Georgia.

Moldovans are actually a minority in Transnistria, which has also seen open tensions since the fall of the USSR.

Lastly, Crimea, which was Russian until 1954, will definitely require a war and ethnic cleansing if Ukraine want to take it again and to keep it.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#59

Post by mytailorisrich »

azangru wrote: post #2

Didn't they always (well, since WW2) consider southern Kurils their territory occupied by Russia? Has anything changed in their messaging?

Well, Japan lost WWII and treaties among the victors gave the Kurils to Russia.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#60

Post by inglor_cz »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later.

I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.

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