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Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

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Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#61

Post by thiagoharry »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#62

Post by denton-scratch »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

> Tuva (ironically, where Shoigu comes from) is a Buddhist nation that fits into the Mongol-Chinese cultural sphere better than into Russian one.

Mongols/Buddhists have a long history in Russia.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#63

Post by mytailorisrich »

inglor_cz wrote: post #60
mytailorisrich wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

Crimea could turn into an independent, mostly Russian speaking, fully demilitarized country living off tourism. Possibly joining the EU later. I bet they would be much richer than today. Being a part of Russia sucks from the economic point of view. IDK if Crimean Russians are so nationalistic that they would rather live in a semi-starved, heavily sanctioned, economically isolated country.

Why can't they remain part of Russia like they historically were (well, I mean since Russia took over form the Tatars, of course) and seem to want?

It's not because Russia has taken Crimea back in a rather cavalier way that they should be split again just to weaken Russia. This can only perpetuate resentment and problems.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#65

Post by Giorgi »

inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

Let's not forget all the territories Russia invaded and currently occupy: Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, Easter Ukraine and Crimea in Ukraine, Transnistria in Moldova and so on.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#66

Post by jcfrei »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

Independent countries are one way to go. A mostly independent region within a federalized republic could be another.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#67

Post by baxtr »

thiagoharry wrote: post #61
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

I guess it depends on how you define "losing". I don't see any scenario where Russia actually "wins". Thus, in turn, I think it's ok to say they will definitely lose this.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#68

Post by inglor_cz »

thiagoharry wrote: post #61
inglor_cz wrote: post #35

In the case that Russia actually collapses as a state ... which is not likely, but cannot be ruled out if they lose this war badly (lost wars are an enormous stress test for authoritarian regimes where the ruler gets all the blame, just look at the collapse of Tsarist Russia in 1917) ... a lot of territory would be up to grabs. Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its ter…

I think that the probability of Russia losing this war is negligible. They are using just a tiny fraction of all their personal and power.

They are using the fraction of their power that they are capable of supporting and supplying, and that is not needed to guard their long borders and coast.

Five million reservists called up into barracks are useless if you cannot transport them into the theater and keep them supplied.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#69

Post by Giorgi »

mytailorisrich wrote: post #58
jcfrei wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lots of countries are obviously positioning themselves to (re-)integrate some territory just in case. Some missing pieces: South Ossetia and Abkhazia which would probably be reintegrated into Georgia and pave the way for potential NATO or EU membership. Transnistria integration into Moldova. LDR / DPR maybe even Crimea back to Ukraine.

This would require military action by Moldova/Georgia/Ukraine because the territories you mention are ethnically different and do not want to be part of those countries to start with. Abkhazia fought a war in the early 90s to split from Georgia. South Ossetia also fought several wars to become independent. So both those territories might strive to become fully independent but will absolutely refuse to be re-absorbed…

This is inaccurate information, Russia fought both wars in Georgia, currently Abkhazians and Ossetians are Russian citizens (they grabbed Russian passports as soon as they become available) so they will go back to their motherland Russia, Georgia will re-absorb it's own historical territory.

Looks like you are spreading Russian propaganda in bad faith.

Re: Japan has declared today that the southern Kurils is their sovereign territory

#70

Post by xxs »

inglor_cz wrote: post #51
xxs wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Kaliningrad could transform to a puppet state of the EU, removing a serious gap in its territorial contiguity. EU is not a country and to my knowledge none of the neighbors wants to join that territory. It's quite a poor region with Russian population... Germans effectively left in the late 40s'

EU is not a country, but it has its own economic and security interests. The region is poor, but adding a statelet with 1 million people into a union of 450 million is a negligible burden. And local economy is already sort-of semiintegrated with the Lithuanian and the Polish one. There used to be quite a lot of cross border trade in peace times there.

I still can't imagine Lithuania agreeing to have a massive influx of Russians with an open border. In certain regions in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania the population speaks Russian exclusively.
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