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US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

reuters.com

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Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#81

Post by bagacrap »

mikem170 wrote: post #56
betterattrib wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Help me understand your position. I look at table 2 and see almost 30k people that died DESPITE a nationwide lockdown. Given what we know about the virus, that number would've hit 2M-4M had we not had the lockdown. What am I missing?

I think the idea is that as more data comes in it looks like this virus is not as bad as was first feared. There is no current data supporting a U.S. death toll of 2-4 million. And a lockdown at this point doesn't save any lives, it only postpones the inevitable spread of the virus. It is not reasonable to stay in lockdown for a couple years until there is a vaccine, not for a virus that kills only 1 of 500 people.

yes, additionally, it is probably better to face the tide of covid cases during the warm weather rather than waiting for cold weather to compound its severity

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#82

Post by bagacrap »

jedberg wrote: post #33
eric_b wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thanks for not even trying. What you should see if you open your eyes and your mind is that anyone under 54 is many times more likely to die from something else other than COVID. Surely even someone such as yourself could imagine a scenario where not EVERYONE needs to be locked down? Perhaps just those in the higher risk brackets?

The elderly still need to interact with society. Infected but asymptotic people are even more dangerous to them, because they can still get infected. If the 22 year old check stand worker at the market goes to a bar and gets COVID-19 and then spreads it to the elderly patron they serve, that's bad. How can you protect against that? Also, they are now finding that COVID-19 causes strokes in young people. Those deaths…

the elderly need to interact with society, yet we currently live in a world where no one interacts with society?

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#83

Post by Pick-A-Hill2019 »

shirro wrote: post #52

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, gover…

Not a specific commentary on the US reaction (or any particular country) but some of it comes down to complacency. Zika, Ebola, SARS, MERS and various other outbreaks occured and were contained which lead to a general feeling that (especially in the early days) this would be another 'Non-Event'. It reminds me of a post a few months back asking if Y2K was actually a problem. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22556156

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#84

Post by satya71 »

shirro wrote: post #52

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, gover…

The opening up is not intended to alleviate poverty, in fact it's the opposite. Currently workers can get ~$3000/month if they are unemployed without fault. If they are unemployed because they refuse to put their lives at risk, they get $0.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#85

Post by fragmede »

Pick-A-Hill2019 wrote: post #83
shirro wrote: post #52

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, gover…

Not a specific commentary on the US reaction (or any particular country) but some of it comes down to complacency. Zika, Ebola, SARS, MERS and various other outbreaks occured and were contained which lead to a general feeling that (especially in the early days) this would be another 'Non-Event'. It reminds me of a post a few months back asking if Y2K was actually a problem. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=225561…

Moreover, some of the places with the best reactions (eg Taiwan) were hard hit by previous epidemics and already had practice with responding to an epidemic.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#86

Post by _bxg1 »

shirro wrote: post #52

Just another Pearl Harbor/9-11 for the US. They could have responded early and mitigated this like Australia/NZ/Taiwan but now there is massive community spread there is no right answer. You open things up and more people die. You close them down and people likely die from poverty related things. The only sane solution was to act early and prevent this. Why even have intelligence services, scientific expertise, gover…

A large portion of the U.S. today harbors active disdain and distrust towards anyone claiming to know more than them on any subject. And those people have voted one of their own into the highest office in the land.

It's really not hard to understand why this played out the way it did.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#87

Post by germinalphrase »

ptero wrote: post #63
germinalphrase wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We don’t have a (publicly facing) political system that rewards nuance.

I am not even talking about nuance, just some basic engineering clarity; and just between friends, no politicians nearby. I have seen a couple of times that the topic got discussed between otherwise calm, smart people. Both times it very quickly got into name calling, no technical arguments involved.

Of course, I agree with you. I just don’t see how our political/media class can change. The incentives are aligned against your/our view.

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#88

Post by paradox242 »

mewpmewp2 wrote: post #53
Seibai wrote: post #12

It's worth noting that reopening early will also cause economic damage, and possibly more that not doing so would. People dying costs money, both in the lost productivity of the dead and reduced productivity among those emotionally affected. More people will die with an early end to lockdown than would if it was maintained for another month or two. I expect lots of grim economics research to come out of this.

Depends. In the conditions where coronavirus killed strictly only the old and weak and it had 2 percent death rate it would on average kill people around 2 years before their actual deaths. Let's just say everyone who would have died at 88 will now die at 86 instead. This means that any costs are just advanced 2 years. But since those 86 year olds do not provide value to the economy at this point, only consume resour…

There are entire industries around elder care and providing for their needs. I would not call this "no value to the economoy".

Re: US states set to reopen as coronavirus could push jobless rate to 16%

#89

Post by tinus_hn »

maxerickson wrote: post #73
mewpmewp2 wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends. In the conditions where coronavirus killed strictly only the old and weak and it had 2 percent death rate it would on average kill people around 2 years before their actual deaths. Let's just say everyone who would have died at 88 will now die at 86 instead. This means that any costs are just advanced 2 years. But since those 86 year olds do not provide value to the economy at this point, only consume resour…

Average age is much lower than 86. Michigan has had hundreds of people in their 40's and 50's die (~13% of deaths): https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0,9753,7-406-98163_9817...

If you calculate generously it’s about 1000 people out of 4 million employed. A tragedy that’s just not going to have a large economic impact.
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