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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#611

Post by q92z8oeif »

mc32 wrote: post #382
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

Most people will not want social unrest. Social unrest leads to chaos and unpredictability. A better alternative is the less sexy but more productive political action obviously with buy in from the power brokers. Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc. it doesn’t always have to be like that as those are extreme; never the less unrest is a medicine that is in most instances worse than the disease.

> Unrest is what happens in Venezuela or Yemen, etc

Usually unrest is not decided so naively like that.

For example, you can organize and take political action just fine, but your larger encumbered opponent might want to start unrest for you https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haymarket_affair#May_Day_parad...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#612

Post by eli_gottlieb »

q92z8oeif wrote: post #604
ardy42 wrote: post #583

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. You make a very interesting point! I wonder what a "reverse 401k" program would look like (e.g. box the wealthy into aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class while only marginally benefiting themselves).

> aligning their actions with the interests poor/middle class Any attempt to recognize classes exits will lead to class war. Everyone is upper class, or waiting to join upper class, anytime now.

Class war is good.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#613

Post by qqqwerty »

jldugger wrote: post #483
guiomie wrote: post #346

Earlier quoted context omitted.

100% agree. The housing market in the bay area will go down even more. The last year changes in tax rules such as lower deduction for mortgage interest and municipal taxes had already weakened the market. With RSUs going down, even less people will be able to buy housing, driving the price down. I think my house lost 8% in the last year, pre-COVID19. Sucks for me as a home owner, but I really believed the housing mar…

> With RSUs going down, even less people will be able to buy housing, driving the price down. If we use the SP500 as a benchmark for RSU valuation, in 2020 those regressed, at their lows for the year, to mid 2017. They are currently at September of last year. In the past year, SP500 is up a quarter percent. I don't think tech workers were doomed in 2019, and nobody was buying a house on the assumption that RSUs would…

I wouldn't count on it. The mortgage market is divided between conventional and jumbo loans[1]. Any bail outs will likely focus on conventional mortgages. The current administration seems to relish in screwing over blue states, and the house of representatives has a long list of negotiating priorities. They might be able to negotiate the SALT limits, but I don't see jumbo loan bail outs making the cut.

[1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/on-small-business/we...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#614

Post by thedragonline »

antientropic wrote: post #293
lisper wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because the economy has grown more or less apace with the money supply (or, more accurately, because the Fed has controlled the growth of the money supply to keep pace with the economy). Now we are pumping cash into a shrinking economy. You can't do that for very long without producing inflation.

The WSJ editorial page has been predicting hyperinflation because of QE since 2008, but it stubbornly refuses to materialize. Maybe this time...

Doubt it. Money velocity has been steadily dropping since the mid-90s. Take a look at this chart from the St. Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V My guess is that it will be absolutely crushed when Covid-19 finally shows up in the chart.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#615

Post by kjshdfklsjhlf »

lisper wrote: post #581
baggy_trough wrote: post #524

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Certainly Democrats are just as corrupt and hostile to facts as Republicans (the set of denied facts will be different of course). Only a partisan would claim otherwise.

Can you give some examples?

Basically every dumb thing the republicans do with regard to abortion has an analog with the left and gun control.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#616

Post by RankingMember »

yters wrote: post #409
RankingMember wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My question then is what half-measures would be preferred here that would've still flattened the curve? When you're in the middle of a pandemic, I think it makes sense to err on the side of doing too much to stem the tide versus burning time and energy trying to feather the dial to get that needle perfectly balanced between physical and economic health. Perhaps more bluntly put, I'd rather people be alive and on unem…

Economic downturn can kill people, too. It is not as simple as dead people on one side and no dead people on the other.

Right, but one kills directly and in much larger numbers. I think it's clear which is the bigger mortal threat.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#617

Post by basch »

jhallenworld wrote: post #519
basch wrote: post #372

Earlier quoted context omitted.

QQQ was a good growth bet, but so is pure AMZN. 50% of QQQ is FAAAMIN (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, with Cisco right below but they dont fit the acronym.) https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t... Investing in Amazon is almost as profitable as a 3x leveraged parity risk bet on QQQ. I get what you are saying, "buy when people are fearful", but do you really think…

Yeah, this is purely fear- people overshoot on the way down, you can profit. I made some easy money in 2008 on certain banks that were obviously not going to fail. The bet is that things return to some sort of normal. I would not normally buy these stocks, they have nowhere near the growth potential as the tech stocks. I guess I don't believe in the statistical basis of the risk calculations (bell curve is an invalid…

In theory QQQ might not be "tech" forever. FAAAMIN could be replaced by the next big thing.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/a-visual-history-of-the-lar...

https://howmuch.net/articles/100-years-of-americas-top-10-co...

QQQ would be a hedge on "big" but not necessarily just these current big.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#618

Post by jazzyk »

mc32 wrote: post #503
DethNinja wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Actually I believe they sent a clear message that they want problems to get even worse. It is not even keeping the status quo at same level, at the face of this pandemic almost all world governments decisively pursued enriching the 1%. I only hope more people woke up to this fact and form a critical mass but I doubt it.

You can read if that way. What I see is them propping up business so that there are actual jobs to go back to once things stabilize. It does little good to send people thousands of dollars if when that dries up, and it would, there are no above board jobs to go back to.

By buying up junk bonds the government props up irresponsible, mismanaged companies, which possibly spent money on stock buybacks and bonuses for executives, instead of product/service development.

The way to go is to protect workers during transition from one job to another by providing them with decent unemployment benefits, training, etc., not bail out lousy executives over and over.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#619

Post by lioeters »

nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Thank you for sharing your experience. That's tough.. I can only wish you the best of luck, surviving and thriving.

Having tasted some of the bitter existence out there, it felt needlessly cruel. In a land of abundance, there's really no reasonable explanation for anybody going hungry, being without shelter, live in dilapidated conditions, fear one's neighbors, fall into irrecoverable debt for healthcare, or any of the million ways that poverty ruins people.

I've been down and out in the U.S., where whole neighborhoods were struggling. It's enough to drive one crazy. Much respect to those able to rise above (or just hang on) and still manage to keep their spirits up.

Mass media and journalism often feel way out of touch with the day-to-day realities on the streets. Much of the time they're in the business of shaping the public narrative, rather than giving people a voice or reporting the truth.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#620

Post by kyuudou »

misun78 wrote: post #586
cultus wrote: post #504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The folks participating in the protest are not at all lower on the socioeconomic latter, but predominately middle class. Black Americans, who tend to be poorer and less secure, support the lockdown at a higher rate than whites or other racial groups [0] (at least in Florida). Whites have the least support for a lockdown, but most still oppose reopening. Lastly, at least some of the protests were funded by the DeVos f…

Building up socio-economic status is a straw man point here given how widespread the effects of this downturn are. It could be that parts of the middle class that are protesting may have lost their jobs or businesses and the stimulus checks don’t offset that as much as it would for lower income folks.

And our middle-class is typically just a few, if not just one, paycheck away from abject poverty.
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