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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

bloomberg.com

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#501

Post by lisper »

ironmagma wrote: post #395
lisper wrote: post #341

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> nobody seems to care. A lot of people care. Many of those who care believe that the situation we're in right now is caused (or at least greatly exacerbated) by incompetent leadership at the national level, but unfortunately that view is not shared by a substantial fraction of the American people, and against that kind of headwind there is only so much we can do.

On top of that, an even greater fraction of people who believe that the administration is incompetent, believe the correct solution to that predicament is to vote the opposite party come election time. It’s as if change in the election system isn’t even an option.

You have to pick your battles. Changing the election system is really hard. There are legitimate policy disagreements one can have with the Democrats, but one thing you cannot say about them is that they are brazenly corrupt and hostile to facts. Donald Trump is both. He is proud of these things. He thinks they're features, not bugs, and about 40% of American voters seem to agree. As long as that remains the case, nothing else matters. Policy is moot when the country is run by a personality cult.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#502

Post by LgWoodenBadger »

ChrisRR wrote: post #386
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

It still surprises me that America has such a culture of leasing cars they can't afford for hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a month. Here in the UK if you said you were going to buy a car, most people would instantly assume you mean second hand. There's not much of a culture of buying or leasing new cars here, and even less of leasing cars that you really can't afford (outside of petrolheads anyway)

Where do all the used cars come from to support such a used-car market?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#503

Post by mc32 »

DethNinja wrote: post #478
_bxg1 wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this exactly. These problems are absolutely possible to solve through political action. But our leaders have had ample opportunities, spread out over more than a decade, to do so. And they've sent a clear signal that they simply won't .

Actually I believe they sent a clear message that they want problems to get even worse. It is not even keeping the status quo at same level, at the face of this pandemic almost all world governments decisively pursued enriching the 1%. I only hope more people woke up to this fact and form a critical mass but I doubt it.

You can read if that way. What I see is them propping up business so that there are actual jobs to go back to once things stabilize.

It does little good to send people thousands of dollars if when that dries up, and it would, there are no above board jobs to go back to.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#504

Post by cultus »

stcredzero wrote: post #479
jdhn wrote: post #455

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. It's easy to look down on people lower on the socioeconomic ladder. They're still human beings. They've been given this raw deal: For the greater good, you will now give up your job for an indefinite period of time, with no prospect of finding…

The folks participating in the protest are not at all lower on the socioeconomic latter, but predominately middle class. Black Americans, who tend to be poorer and less secure, support the lockdown at a higher rate than whites or other racial groups [0] (at least in Florida). Whites have the least support for a lockdown, but most still oppose reopening.

Lastly, at least some of the protests were funded by the DeVos family [1].

[0] https://poll.qu.edu/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=3659

[1] https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/26/devos-family...

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#505

Post by _bxg1 »

DethNinja wrote: post #478
_bxg1 wrote: post #440

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, this exactly. These problems are absolutely possible to solve through political action. But our leaders have had ample opportunities, spread out over more than a decade, to do so. And they've sent a clear signal that they simply won't .

Actually I believe they sent a clear message that they want problems to get even worse. It is not even keeping the status quo at same level, at the face of this pandemic almost all world governments decisively pursued enriching the 1%. I only hope more people woke up to this fact and form a critical mass but I doubt it.

I see that motion as the status quo. The velocity, maybe even the acceleration, towards enriching the 1% is the status quo. This is how things will continue to go if people leave the system alone, pandemic or not.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#506

Post by tacheiordache »

cpursley wrote: post #256
dhconnelly wrote: post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect the downvotes are due to a lack of critical engagement. Even the Holodomor link offers a litany of reasons that aren't just "socialism," and we've been interfering in Venezuela for decades, not limited to: harsh sanctions, coup attempts, cutting off access to foreign markets, blocking access to its own funds stored outside the country, and so on. In addition to all the hoarding of food and medicine inside t…

Are they though? In order to have socialism, you have to give more money and power to the state. Money and Power in state hands can go in dark directions "for the common good". The culture must be ready for it (like the Danes and Fins but unlike the Russians or Americans); it's really important.

I don't really understand what you're saying here. Can you explain what you mean?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#507

Post by modzu »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

it reminds me of how i read somewhere the average citzen in china approves of their government while in the west this is hard to comprehend. think of the furor when google tried to do business there: dont they want the truth, dont they want freedom?? it turns out that actully more importance is placed on values like stability and order. its interesting to see in america the head nodding, that yes, health and safety is #1 above all else, no matter what cost (i dont mean economic cost!) -- i mean not freedom, not choice. anecdotally, it also reminds me of how doctors treated my terminally ill friend. submit yourself to drugs and surguries and live like hell but you will live a few months longer. instead the doctors should have been saying go away, live as best you can while you can! but that sentiment is technically against their duty. technically they were 'treating' her, 'helping' her. anyway this is just to say, a change is happening, a change possibly for the worse, but a change we ourselves are asking for (secure us, keep us safe, keep order... to hell with the truth and freedom, those values are for confederate flag waving 'rednecks')

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#508

Post by nradov »

jdhn wrote: post #455
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

>My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. The only social unrest that has happened so far have been the protests about wanting to lift or ease restrictions on states, and they were widely panned as a bunch of nutjobs. I doubt there will be any "unrest" beyond the protests.

Do you count it as "unrest" when people just quietly ignore the restrictions without actively protesting? Because I see a lot of that, and more every day. In some rural counties the local Sheriffs have unilaterally decided not to enforce statewide "shelter in place" orders. I'm not justifying that behavior but it will inevitably increase week by week.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#509

Post by lotsofpulp »

ardy42 wrote: post #495
lotsofpulp wrote: post #419

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All taxpayers (since they will have to make up for shortfalls) and recipients of defined benefit pensions (since they will have to accept reductions in benefits) are also indirectly exposed to changes equity prices.

> All taxpayers (since they will have to make up for shortfalls) and recipients of defined benefit pensions (since they will have to accept reductions in benefits) are also indirectly exposed to changes equity prices. But that needs to be put in its proper context. Even if you have a small amount of stock or indirectly benefit from stock prices in some way, it'd be stupid if you let that mentally tie yourself to the…

Not if the shortfall is made up via asset price inflation and dollar devaluation. Then the non asset owning class takes the brunt of the pain.

Which is what I believe has been happening for decades. Progressive taxation can help, but I doubt the political will exists to tax capital gains.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#510

Post by defterGoose »

forgot_my_pwd wrote: post #465
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

And all that because of a virus that has a fatality rate about between .2 and .5% which mainly targets people who are already on the verge of death to begin with. We need to begin opening our country back up and implementing more targeted lockdowns and isolations for the most vulnerable. Not only will this bring us to herd immunity faster, we will have a huge pool of recovered people available to donate plasma antibo…

Or, instead of taking the lives of those who cling to it, we could enact sensible policies to re-engage the capital squandered by the richest in our society. "But that would be tantamount to thievery!" you say. Perhaps, but that seems better than murder.
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