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U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

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Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#371

Post by 0xffff2 »

mcphilip wrote: post #138
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to.

My question is how many people have absolutely no ties to the stock market? I'm pretty far from any definition of rich, but I still have a 401k, so you're not likely to see me rioting because the S&P 500 is in the green.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#372

Post by basch »

jhallenworld wrote: post #142
Kye wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The list of companies on it should give you an idea: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S%26P_500_companies It's mostly companies that do well in any market or have a habit of surviving massive market disruptions. Sort by founded date. Almost all of them are 2000 or older.

To add to this: even within the S&P-500, the better ones seem to do much better than the average ones, so the NASDAQ-100 outperforms the S&P-500. As an investor: Very happy with my "QQQ" (NASDAQ-100 ETF) investment, but my more diverse retirement portfolio is nowhere near as good. I have recently been buying hard hit stocks that I think will survive over the long term: Disney, Marriott.. As an employee: well, the tri…

QQQ was a good growth bet, but so is pure AMZN. 50% of QQQ is FAAAMIN (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Intel, Netflix, with Cisco right below but they dont fit the acronym.)

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&t...

Investing in Amazon is almost as profitable as a 3x leveraged parity risk bet on QQQ. I get what you are saying, "buy when people are fearful", but do you really think it will be more profitable than betting on the top 6 tech stocks?

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#373

Post by cs702 »

syncsynchalt wrote: post #48
cs702 wrote: post #3

Given that that Jan and Feb seemed largely fine, the rate of decline in March was probably around 3x the quarter's headline figure -- call it -15%, give or take. April was much worse, without a doubt. Anything between a -25% and -50% GDP decline seems possible for April.

The decline was only 1.2%, 4.8% is after a 4x "annualizing" multiplier.

Of course. 4x to anualize a quarter. To guesstimate for just one month, we need 12x, i.e., multiply by another 3x. And of course, all this ignores compounding, seasonality, etc. The point I was tying to make -- and evidently, I did a poor job at articulating it -- is that the annualized rate of GDP change for the quarter understates the economic shock in the month of March. And April is likely worse than March.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#374

Post by [deleted] »

derg wrote: post #327
balls187 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street. Why, in the worlds wealthiest nation is that something I should expect?

Because those who write the rules are going to use the massive number of foreclosures to buy up property dirt cheap like they did in '08 and beyond. It's a feature, not a bug. We're seeing one of the largest transfers of wealth from the poor to the wealthy ever and it's only getting worse. The cruelty is the point. Oh also don't forget the number of people who are, or will shortly be, underwater with their car paymen…

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#375

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #342
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #305

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The number of people who say they're going to is vastly lower, certainly. But I don't think that people's attitudes during a mandatory stay at home order are reflective of what we'll actually do once it's clear the worst is behind us.

My point is that many of these people are enduring real financial hardship. Many have already lost jobs or taken major pay cuts. The ones who haven't lost them are afraid of it, and diverting more money into savings and away from discretionary purchases. I assume the people I know are probably more white-collar and in relatively safer jobs than the general population, which (looking only at today's unemployment numbe…

Sure, and I agree that people can't afford to consume as much right this second. The question is what it'll look like in 3 months.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#376

Post by [deleted] »

mellow2020 wrote: post #318
mcphilip wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. Thanks for posting this comment. I know it sounds trite, but I’…

> My question is how much, if any, social unrest this will lead to. Individuals must answer this question, not just ask it.

[deleted]

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#377

Post by mikepurvis »

iambateman wrote: post #4

I understand that the economy and the market are different but I'm so confused. The S&P is up ~12% this month, despite massive unemployment, a shrinking economy, and serious long-term questions about the outlook. Is most of the 12% just market speculation that the virus issue will pass without a long-term earnings hit?

April 1 was basically the bottom point for the market, so everything's up on rebound since then, but only because it all crashed starting on Feb 20.

I don't think any of the market growth from this month reflects actual economic growth, most just optimism or perhaps reined-in pessimism.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#378

Post by rtkwe »

buboard wrote: post #204
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

So, how is it that people employed in essential businesses have not become rich in this pandemic? After all they are in high, crucial demand and could/should command better wages than programmers at this time. Sure, some of those raises would increase the price of goods, but that would be offset by hefty UBI checks to everyone. How is it that people who endanger their lives working in supermarkets don't get raises, b…

That would only really happen where workers are actually getting compensation commensurate with the value of their work. That hasn't been true for years (if ever) in the US.

Also essential doesn't really mean their more in demand now than before in all industries. Mechanics for example are essential and still at work but cars if anything will be needing less maintenance now than before because so many people are out of work and not driving anywhere for vacations.

Additionally the places where there is simply an increased demand and need are a lot of 2 types of job 1) warehouse workers or 2) manufacturing. Warehouse workers don't have that strong of a bargaining position because places like Amazon are already used to constant turnover, surge by up to 200k a year already, and only really need warm relatively able bodied people of which there are loads right now that'd love a job. Manufacturing people are in a slightly better position as it's harder to just throw bodies at it but factories have limited ability to ramp up. Grocery store workers are kind of (1) employees where it's very easy to replace workers so it's tough for ununioned employees to demand hazard pay or raises because it's very easy to find replacements, especially so now when there's so many other service industry jobs that are out of work right now.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#379

Post by balls187 »

derg wrote: post #327
balls187 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I fully expect, and you should too, foreclosures to skyrocket and people to be on the street. Why, in the worlds wealthiest nation is that something I should expect?

Because those who write the rules are going to use the massive number of foreclosures to buy up property dirt cheap like they did in '08 and beyond. It's a feature, not a bug. We're seeing one of the largest transfers of wealth from the poor to the wealthy ever and it's only getting worse. The cruelty is the point. Oh also don't forget the number of people who are, or will shortly be, underwater with their car paymen…

Ahh, I didn't read that parent comment with a sense of sarcasm.

As long as I have breath in my lungs, I will do whatever I can for the least of my brothers.

Re: U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start of Recession

#380

Post by james1071 »

baron_harkonnen wrote: post #257
nimbius wrote: post #98

This is anecdotal and it might come across as bitter and tonedeaf as someone who is not in a STEM job and cant see the bigger picture very well. Im a diesel engine tech who repairs those big trucks carrying food and shit tickets to grocery stores. the fact that ANY market is completely detached from whats actually happening to Americans is frustrating. My job just cut benefits and hours but we're "essential." Remembe…

Tech people will be hit much harder by this than they think. The STEM world is largely in denial because ultimately SV grew because of the last major recession. That won't be happening this time. Startups are having massive layoffs right now, and each week bring companies further and further down the chain lay people off. I strongly suspect we'll see more major layoffs next week. Most big tech companies are driven by…

Yes - there seems to be an assumption that they have jobs until the money runs out.
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