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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#591

Post by c1sc0 »

zuzululu wrote: post #412
sinuhe69 wrote: post #397

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI market might not collapse but the stock market could! Even if the AI companies only need to downgrade their investments and a healthy correction is underway, a fire sale of AI-related stocks will bring the stock market to its knees.

I don't really see this happening in the way that most people are envisioning. It's clear that Anthropic and OpenAI have found product market fit. They've gotten companies hooked and personally I cannot go back to the old way of coding. However, I do see a bit of reduced demand for hardware and datacenters which could reprice these companies to more sane multiples. There will be winners and losers.

But will you need overpriced Codex and Claude? Most business code is crappy SaaS and glorified CRUD apps & I can build those with Sonnet / DeepSeek just fine …

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#592

Post by bluecalm »

xienze wrote: post #480
SwellJoe wrote: post #447

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which, again, benefits the wealthy and well-informed and well-connected. The suckers who have their retirement savings in some kind of index fund because all the experts have been saying, "Buy index ETFs and forget about it" for decades are gonna get fleeced, and the wealthiest get wealthier.

I suppose everyone reading this thread counts as "well-informed" then, right? All I have to do is move my 401k into the bond-heavy fund right now and then back into the stock-heavy one when everything craters is what I'm hearing. It's what you're doing, right?

You are giving up equity premium for the time till everything settles. You will also not know when that is. It's going to be more like a long term ticking bomb that may take years to detonate.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#593

Post by tclancy »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #162
testrun wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is revenue. What is the net profit?

If you are growing revenue at a high rate then taking profit is a misallocation of resources. That is short-term thinking. It is much better to reinvest in revenue growth. You can take small profit now or much larger profit later. Insisting that companies need to be profitable even when growing revenue rapidly is failing the marshmallow test.

That's not how classical valuations worked though. I was taught the rough shorthand for valuing a company was profits / real_interest_rate, treating the company like a perpetuity. Revenue ain't in it. Now we have a bunch of "We'll make it up on volume companies!" like https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXDxNCzUspM

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#594

Post by adammarples »

mgh2 wrote: post #572
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

The crypto market is 2.5T, essentially money parked in nonproductive assets. A simple public awakening and reallocation will suffice.

This kind of doesn't make sense. You don't park "money" "in" crypto. Crypto sits there, with its value set at the last sale price. There's nothing to stop the next sale price taking its value to zero without anything happening to real money other than some of it changing hands. It's not like crypto holders can sell $2.5T of crypto and plough it into equities, for a start some other investor will have to buy it from them for $2.5T and then we're in the same position we started in.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#595

Post by mcherm »

eru wrote: post #557
sehansen wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Index funds are largely synonymous with passive, long term, buy-and-hold investors. That kind of investors are best served by slower changes to the index, especially since index funds are intended to piggy back on the price discovery that happens in public trading. An IPO price, which is the result of a private negotiation, is exactly what you don't want to buy stocks at if you're a passive, long term investor.

There's lots of different indices with different rules, and lots of different funds to implement these. Pick one that works with your preferences.

I did.

Then the rules were changed.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#596

Post by Alpha3031 »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #207
cowmix wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.

Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.

Doesn't SpaceX charge 2 to 3 times their internal cost to external customers? ISRO is still more expensive, IIRC they charged ~US$60 million (roughly $6000/kg) for the OneWeb launches whereas after the recent price hikes SpaceX is supposedly charging ~US$74 million on a larger rocket (~$4200/kg), but that's far from an order of magnitude difference like your comment suggests, which I assume would be using the $25 million they charge Starlink internally (IIRC ISRO's internal cost is much higher, around $40 to 50 million, but that's still not anywhere near an order of magnitude). Using internal cost from one provider and external price for another is somewhat misleading.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#597

Post by pbhjpbhj »

arkh wrote: post #567
moffkalast wrote: post #460

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

Originally pensions were created so people who could not work would not be destitute. The fact it became an all-inclusive all-year-round vacation reward is an anomaly which is getting corrected. Too bad for us we're the generations holding the bag.

At 60/65 (women/men) years old pensioners could contribute a lot to society in their last decade or more of active life.

Caring for grandchildren, running clubs and societies, giving their experience to local politics.

At 60, women who had daughters at 30, whose daughters just had children would be well placed to help with childrearing.

These sorts of things got lost in UK with equality and the pensions crisis.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#598

Post by tripledry »

Ekaros wrote: post #566
ExoticPearTree wrote: post #435

I don’t understand why there is so much pushback and skepticisim about SpaceX. They actually have a functioning product, a market where they sell the product and virtually no competition at their pricepoint.

It is the price. SpaceX has reasonable parts. More questionable parts. And then crap parts. Reasonable parts must pay for crap and maybe questionable. What is reasonable value for all it does? Clearly it is not what it is now projected at.

Would have been interested in SpaceX but I don't like that xAI is being baked in so I will skip this one.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#599

Post by adammarples »

UniversalBlue wrote: post #582
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

Sorry but SpaceX has done absulutely nothing for space other than take billions in GOV funding and never delivering what they promised years ago. Hell the only cargo they ever shipped was a banana...

They've shipped lots of satellites into low earth orbit, that's their starlink business and it's where all of the revenue in spacex comes from, and it is a good business in itself.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#600

Post by codethief »

augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

Do we know what the situation looks like with other popular indices such as MSCI World, MSCI ACWI, MSCI ACWI IMI, FTSE All-World, …? Do they have any requirement of 12 months of trading or of profitability or similar?
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