Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

391–400 of 1001 posts

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#391

Post by forrestpitz »

threetonesun wrote: post #191
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

My wife was diagnosed with several chronic conditions in the last year. AI tools both diagnosed her before a doctor did (which helped us find the right docs to care for her by figuring out what to look for). One of her conditions (Mast Cell Activation Syndrome) comes with a ton of dietary restrictions. Its helped us immensely in planning meals and identifing food triggers. All of this would have possible with out AI as a tool but would have led to much more pain and suffering and likely taken much longer to figure it out. It's easy to dismiss (especially given the hallucinations) but it's been legitimatly life changing over the last year

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#392

Post by taurath »

gruez wrote: post #170
taurath wrote: post #129

[flagged]

If you have evidence of corruption, present it. Otherwise it's just generic cynicism leading to a thought terminating cliche.

I find it to be genuinely more likely some level of corruption, and while my insinuation may be overly specific or illustrative, I still hold to it as an ironic statement meant to speak the truth.

In this age of AI marketing taking over the minds and imaginations of most of our businesses leaders in the name of greed and fear, I’ll hold to the more likely truth given the circumstances, regardless of this appeal to some invented tale of uncorruptable corporate governance. Have you never seen decisions being made?

I think that better matches the original spirit of this forum. The progenitors have become the people they once disrupted.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#393

Post by stingrae »

guywithahat wrote: post #389
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

they should wait for the major lockups to pass, there by skipping some of the inevitable volatility they will likely cause.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#394

Post by fourside »

guywithahat wrote: post #389
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

Why does SpaceX warrant a change of existing trading rules?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#395

Post by sothatsit »

hedora wrote: post #200
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I do too, and pay $200/month, but anthropic’s margins on that revenue are negative. What’s the long term plan? Make it up on margin? 100% tariffs on Chinese open weight models? I don’t plan on pulling from my 401k for decades, so the long term plan is the part I care about.

Enterprises are paying API prices, which are ~9x the price of the plan for the same usage. A lot of people on the plans are not maxing them out either.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#396

Post by mock-possum »

tdeck wrote: post #349
augstein wrote: post #105

For SpaceX (and possible the others): Yes it can, since they changed the rules to force over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. From https://x.com/Hedgeye/status/2060435253928604065 : "Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k a…

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Move your investments to funds that won’t automatically buy spacex stocks

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#397

Post by sinuhe69 »

aurareturn wrote: post #18
rconti wrote: post #2

So they're not just racing to gain dominance in AI, they're also racing to IPO before the music stops? IPOing and getting a bunch of cash, even if your stock subsequently suffers in the crash, is a lot better than being unable to get that capital infusion before the house of cards collapses.

I don't think OpenAI or Anthropic are predicting that the AI market is going to collapse. In fact, I think both are bullish that the public still isn't pricing in exponential growth. I think what is happening is that OpenAI is racing to IPO before Anthropic because their growth isn't as impressive. If you are the weaker company, you should IPO first to lock up the cash.

The AI market might not collapse but the stock market could! Even if the AI companies only need to downgrade their investments and a healthy correction is underway, a fire sale of AI-related stocks will bring the stock market to its knees.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#398

Post by tshaddox »

bradleybuda wrote: post #371
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

That ignores the actual issue here, which is the change in rules. Index funds already seek to own the entire market, and when most people chose these index funds there were rules about when newly listed stocks get purchased by the funds. And now those rules are being changed.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#399

Post by realusername »

guywithahat wrote: post #389
pryce wrote: post #355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This should be a 5 alarm fire. It reminds me of nothing more than organized crime rackets that targeted control of union retirement funds

Why? An index fund represents the market (usually top 100 or 500 companies), and SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies. I would argue it's a lot riskier to buy it after the IPO price (if you're buying it secondary it would be easier to spike prices by accident), plus then it's not representative of the actual market until you've purchased the stock. Unless I'm misunderstanding this, buying at the sale pri…

> SpaceX will certainly be in the top few companies.

I'd argue that it certainly isn't.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#400

Post by dbdr »

bradleybuda wrote: post #371
tdeck wrote: post #349

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What can those of us who are passive investors do to protect ourselves?

Not buy these index funds. If you don’t want to own the entire market, don’t buy funds that seek to own the entire market. Funds like ESGV which exclude companies with poor governance have existed for a very long time - I can’t find a clear answer as to whether or not it will buy SpaceX, but I’m sure you can find funds that cater to your desires.

However they are literally changing the rules of what "the entire market" means to include those companies sooner that they would have been when people bought those indices.
Post reply on HN