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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#581

Post by gadders »

xdennis wrote: post #545
gadders wrote: post #399

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because despite agreements to the contrary, NATO keeps trying to expand into Ukraine.

What agreement? This is the agreement that Russia signed to guarantee the integrity of Ukraine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Securit... What agreement did NATO sign to not expand? Produce it!

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/02/15/the-origins-of-...

"President Bush also assured Gorbachev during their meeting in Malta in December, 1989, that if the countries of Eastern Europe were allowed to choose their future orientation by democratic processes, the United States would not “take advantage” of that process. (Obviously, bringing countries into NATO that were then in the Warsaw Pact would be “taking advantage.”) The following year, Gorbachev was assured, though not in a formal treaty, that if a unified Germany was allowed to remain in NATO, there would be no movement of NATO jurisdiction to the east, “not one inch.”"

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#582

Post by gen220 »

jdrc wrote: post #453

Would be interesting to hear from any russians in here, because i can't help to think that large majority of russians are complicit to what seems to be a dictator going mad as much as the dictators in his neighborhood (aliyev, khomeini, taliban etc)

I have the secondhand POV of a middle class Russian friend who grew up in Moscow and went to US for university, and keeps very up to date with domestic politics and economy. Did not expect full-scale invasion, has many generalized and specific concerns about what comes next.

Believes that Putin does not care about the opinion of the well-to-do Russian diaspora, even if they have fiscal or monetary connections to Russia. Very concerned, at the personal level, about the impact of broader sanctions that threaten to isolate the Russian economy like the Iranian economy. Views Putin as responsible for provoking these sanctions. However, he believes that the general Russian public is generally supportive of Putin's actions.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#583

Post by throw0101a »

buran77 wrote: post #537
throw0101a wrote: post #518

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> No superpower wants the enemy right at their border. There's a reason why Russia's neighbours are so nervous and want a support system: * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Annexation_of_Crimea_by_the_Ru... And let's not forget Malaysia Airlines Flight 17: * https://en.w…

Everyone who was abused by a superpower is nervous and would like the same help. What's the point in making that list to support your point if you're not going to paint the other half of the picture which is making the opposite point? Cuba would have loved to not be cut off from the world for more than half a century for doing what the Ukraine was just enticed to do. Palestine could use some help in what has to be on…

No post body was provided.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#584

Post by watwut »

RobertoG wrote: post #148
watwut wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?

Ukraine is in the middle of two "powers" and the proper role would be one of buffer. They could even benefit from that. Unfortunately, the Russian and the USA have both tried to take that part of the board for them and the Ukrainian population is split on their loyalties. Russian, simply can't allow more of the board, specially one part so close, to be dominated by the opponent. Anyone that think this conflict in ter…

> Ukraine is in the middle of two "powers" and the proper role would be one of buffer

You are aware that Ukraine was the buffer between nato and Russia, because the two actually touch in other places quite a lot? Also, "buffer" is not predestined mandatory role for any country. Buffer is not necessary at all.

There are so many levels of wrong with what you wrote here ...

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#585

Post by ayngg »

ajuc wrote: post #404
ayngg wrote: post #260

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time…

Ukraine wasn't going to be accepted into NATO anyway. They asked. Weren't accepted. Ukraine knows this, Russia knows this, NATO countries know this. It's just Russian excuse for propaganda reasons. The real reason is that Russians consider Ukrainians "the same nation" and if Ukrainians entered EU or some sort of association with it, and got richer than Russians like Poles, Slovaks, Czechs, Balts etc. - it would be ve…

I don't think it is either or, NATO is just a symbol for western alignment which reaches the same ends you describe. Beyond whatever foundational context, the three conflicts related the Ukraine and Georgia were precipitated by this (specifically most recently with the Brussels summit in 2021) which suggests it is a very definitive line in the sand, regardless of whether or not it is the actual reasoning. This is the third time the west has tested that line, it is the third time Russia has responded in this way, and it will most likely be the third time the West does nothing but implement sanctions because it isn't as important to them as it is to Russia.

This isn't a justification for actions, it is about understanding the situation through the chaos.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#586

Post by smsm42 »

trhway wrote: post #132
smsm42 wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem is not condemning, the problem is just condemning and not taking the next step, or making it so weak it actually emboldens tbe agressor, who thinks "oh, that's all they got? Wasn't too bad, I guess I'll just keep on"

On the main, "voice of the state", the 1st channel of Russian TV they have just discussed that the West would introduce more sanctions, yet half a year down the road the West would just get used to the situation.

That's how it's been since 2014. And that's why Putin feels so bold - he's already been down this road, and he knows it's not as scary as they try to make it look like. To scare him off, something bigger would be required - but looks like there's not much. Even SWIFT restrictions are a no go. The most the West can do is slap some personal sanctions on a couple of billionaire oligarchs (which can very well sit it out in Russia) and on some Russian banks (which probably also can stomach it for years).

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#587

Post by smsm42 »

buran77 wrote: post #495
trhway wrote: post #306

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Realistically Russia can't occupy any significant part of Ukraine, nor Kiev in particular - tens of millions of pissed-off resisting Ukrainians with many taking up arms (on Ukrainian TV they said that they already give arms to such civilians as former police, and Zelenskiy said that they would give arms to all "willing and capable to defend the country") would shake off any army, and any such occupation attempt would…

I don't think Russia is willing or able to occupy Ukraine. They most likely want to "poison" the region and make the country undesirable in NATO. No superpower wants the enemy right at their border. The US didn't appreciate Russian missiles being put on Cuban land 60 years ago, Russia certainly doesn't want NATO forces and weaponry being put on Ukrainian land now. It doesn't take a strategist to see that all superpow…

There's no NATO forces on Ukrainian land. But there are Russian ones. And they have already occupied large parts of Ukraine - and trying right now, right this very moment, to take more. So you can "think" whatever you want, but the facts are completely opposite to your claims.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#588

Post by vetinari »

raducu wrote: post #566
Grustaf wrote: post #423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They have discussed putting nuclear missiles in Sweden, who isn’t even a member. Plus the US has already been arming Ukraine, hasn’t it?

And? Russia put them in Cuba, and later got them out. Russia could have asked for this guarantee if it really cared about, it wasn't even a topic of discussion. Ukraine had nukes and gave them up. Nukes in Ukraine would be such a ridiculous topic that Putin didn't even dare to bring up.

> Russia could have asked for this guarantee if it really cared about

They did exactly that, only to be ignored, and denied that they could even ask for it.

> it wasn't even a topic of discussion.

Whaaat? It is public, you won't have any trouble to find it.

> Ukraine had nukes and gave them up.

Soviet Union had nukes, not Ukraine.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#589

Post by selfhoster11 »

gattilorenz wrote: post #69
selfhoster11 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World War 1 started because a guy was assassinated, for one. The tension was there, but the assassination was what set everything into motion.

"a guy" to describe the future emperor of the Austria-Hungary is an understatement. It's like saying that the world was shocked because in 1963 a guy was shot. Yes, technically true, but...

I deliberately phrased it this way. Yes, he was an important guy. But ultimately, just a normal guy, like the rest of us.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#590

Post by thiagoharry »

sg47 wrote: post #508
thiagoharry wrote: post #470

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every month. Say that to Libya or Yugoslavia that were attacked. NATO is not exactly just a "defensive agreement" as is being currently propagandized.

It's Ukraine's choice to do whatever they want.

Likewise, it was Cuba's choice to place soviet nukes where they want. However, that led to a crisis here.
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