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Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

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Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#51

Post by sofixa »

darebak wrote: post #28
baby wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

World wars start from something small. Not saying this is it, but there are all the reasons to be concerned about today’s events.

I don't think that any of the world wars started out of small things, can you clarify?

The original "world war", the Seven Years War, started over some useless land in North America and then became global over Silesia, both of which are rather small things.

WWI started over an assassination that barely happened, and WWII over a city ( Danzig, although it's fairly certain Hitler wouldn't have stopped there, like WWI would have happened anyways).

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#52

Post by chinathrow »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #7
raverbashing wrote: post #3

(If it's what I heard) Requesting more troops is not triggering article 4 And as per the Tweet itself, it's a consultation

The consultation is what triggering article 4 means. Article 5 is collective defense. Article 4 The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...

So Article 4 is talking - I am very sure lot's of talking within NATO happened in the last couple of months already - what does this change?

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#53

Post by CodeArtisan »

Hokusai wrote: post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 to "enforce peace". Same with Crimea in 2014. Then Luhansk and Donetsk a few days ago. Now the rest of Ukraine. Discussion with Putin is futile. When Russia started sending troops next to the Ukraine borders, NATO and especially USA should have responded by sending two thousands soldiers to Kiev. It's too late now.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#54

Post by hawski »

agilob wrote: post #46

ok, so ELI15, what is Article 4 and Article 5?

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.ht...

Article 4

The Parties will consult together whenever, in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened.

Article 5

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#55

Post by sofixa »

watwut wrote: post #26
hef19898 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They consider their security to be threatened, and requested NATO to discuss it. Officially. Which is kind of a big deal. Article 5 can be invoked once, intentionally or by accident, e.g. a NATO plane is attacked over Ukraine. This whole thing is a mess. Despite history since the end of the cold war (which makes some of Russia's positions somewhat understandable, and the fact that NATO didn't do anything different in…

What makes Russia position understandable? What gives them right to occupy Ukraine?

The position is understandable because Russia is playing a Grand Strategy Game in the past, and doesn't want the enemy ( NATO) to be at all their borders. Justified? Right? Humane? Absolutely not.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#57

Post by bremac »

throwaway5752 wrote: post #48
ckastner wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> substantial risk of full scale thermonuclear exchange. This hasn't been true since the Cuban Missile Crisis. A full scale nuclear exchange ends with the annihilation of both sides. [1] To quote WarGames, "The only way to win is not to play". [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutual_assured_destruction

Yes, in the presence of rational actors this would be avoided, but here we are anyway. A single nuclear strike would be met with retaliation and it would escalate to mutually assured destruction like clockwork. A lot of optimists thought Putin would not invade Ukraine because of the risk and that he was posturing. It would be similarly optimistic to presume rational actor decision processes. That may be a strategy he…

If Putin presses on toward Poland or threatens the Baltics, then we will be on a knife's edge. However, for now, Russia has only invaded Ukraine. It's a humanitarian disaster, but so far on the world stage it shows no sign it will escalate beyond new sanctions, export controls, and perhaps additional military support for NATO members in Eastern Europe.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#58

Post by chrischen »

kragen wrote: post #13

Non-error-message link: https://birdsite.xanny.family/EstonianGovt/status/1496728085... Text, 57 minutes ago: "#Estonia unequivocally condemns #Russia's military attack on #Ukraine and we have decided to launch #NATO consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty with Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other Allies." Crepuscular photo of some buildings and link to https://valitsus.ee/en/news/estonian-governmen…

Previous World Wars were not one-sided. Pretty much the majority of the developed world (probably all of the developed world?) is against Russia right now.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#59

Post by Giorgi »

chinathrow wrote: post #43

It makes me sad, angry and confused that Putin is showing force. What an absolute madman.

"showing force" is such a light way to describe it, this is full scale invasion into Europe, with the target to annihilate whole country while impotent civilized west watches it unfold in the fears that they may be next.

Re: Estonia, allies to trigger NATO Article 4

#60

Post by smsm42 »

Hokusai wrote: post #11

This reminds me of each time people criticises the European Union for "condemning" something. Big organizations do things step by step. First you talk, then you act. Even Russia prepared a prerecorded pantomime of a discussion before acting. This are the gears moving and is no small thing, it sends a message and prepares for the worse.

The problem is not condemning, the problem is just condemning and not taking the next step, or making it so weak it actually emboldens tbe agressor, who thinks "oh, that's all they got? Wasn't too bad, I guess I'll just keep on"
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