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Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

economist.com

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Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#541

Post by ben_w »

Bombthecat wrote: post #422
disillusioned wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because nothing about the IPO price has any resemblance to a fair market valuation, and if it's being propped up by this forced inclusion, even less so? The rules existed to fundamentally protect against a Potemkin village situation where an underwriter and some early round investors whip the valuation into a froth and raise against a rabid corps of retail investors who don't necessarily care about a PE ratio of 1,00…

[flagged]

People can dream with lottery tickets, that doesn't make them wise pension plans.

While I like the dreams Musk sells of self-driving cars so good they don't need steering wheels, of space colonisation and useful robot workers cheap enough that I could personally afford them, at this point I don't trust him in particular to actually deliver any of those things.

(And no, you can't convince me with some variant of "look at ${current version} of FSD" or "look at progress with Starship", etc., that's like responding to someone who doubts you can build a house by pointing to a pile of bricks: they're a necessary step, but aren't sufficient).

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#542

Post by fragmede »

threetonesun wrote: post #191
olalonde wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).

I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.

Does it have to be an LLM? https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/ai-skin-cancer-nhs...

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#543

Post by andruby »

throwaway2037 wrote: post #418
HWR_14 wrote: post #311

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX is slowly and steadily increasing the float over the first 6 months by having a rolling end to the lockup. The only major cliff will be Elons shares

> The only major cliff will be Elons shares Do you really think he would see a large portion of his shares on his unlock date? If so, why? What would he do with the capital?

Off-load some of them when the valuation is _to the moon_ from AI and then later he'll force shareholders and the board to gift him even more shares then he sold.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#544

Post by saidnooneever »

iLoveOncall wrote: post #481
saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

No, it's wrong. Amazon is worth $2.81T right now and only represents 4.03% of the S&P500. So a $1T share would represent less than 2% of the S&P500. This is significant for a single company, and 6% for 3 shit-tier companies (SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic) is even more significant, but we're far from "losing retirement if they go bust"-levels.

thank you

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#545

Post by tristanj »

zwarag wrote: post #429
giancarlostoro wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space. In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more…

I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet. Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: rep…

One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#546

Post by [deleted] »

rvba wrote: post #531
romanovcode wrote: post #473

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The gamble is that you either succeed or fail. If you try nothing you'll work until you die regardless. Current system: Work until you die. New system collapses: Work until you die. New system lucks out: Probably get returns (pension).

I doubt that a FAANG programmer from hacker news has to work till they die. You are doing something wrong. Current system isnt great but works. Just fear uncertainity doubt here.

[deleted]

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#547

Post by schonfinkel »

aurareturn wrote: post #39
asjgGa6 wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a huge demand for the World Online IPO in The Netherlands in the late 2000 bubble. Retail investors bought it thinking they got a unicorn. Turns out it was a scam and shares fell on the first day. Soon after the entire bubble burst. That said, I don't even see "huge demand" for the AI triocorns right now. Unlike in 2000, most people are skeptical.

World Online IPO €64 million revenue on €91 million losses. Meanwhile, Anthropic is adding ~$10-$15b ARR every month. That said, I don't even see "huge demand" for the AI triocorns right now. Unlike in 2000, most people are skeptical. I personally think there is massive demand. I think Anthropic will easily eclipse $2 trillion marketcap on first day of trading.

> Meanwhile, Anthropic is adding ~$10-$15b ARR every month.

I'd like to see how creative their accountants are before thrusting any numbers like that.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#548

Post by oblio »

philipallstar wrote: post #508
oblio wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SpaceX financials are a mess outside of the actual SpaceX part. xAI is losing money hand over fist, other random bits in there are doing the same. The valuation makes no sense. It's basically a money transfer from the average person to the poor richest person on the planet. The true Great Filter is mental illness, apparently.

> xAI is losing money hand over fist I wonder how much better Anthropic is doing.

Well, apparently Anthropic became "profitable" last month, because of some 1-time deal with xAI.

I wouldn't bet on either Anthropic or OpenAI being profitable, we'll find out soon enough what this house of cards has inside, as they both want to IPO.

Though with the current US administration, as proven by the SpaceX IPO, laws are mere recommendations.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#549

Post by aswegs8 »

Ekaros wrote: post #459
sehansen wrote: post #444

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Index funds are largely synonymous with passive, long term, buy-and-hold investors. That kind of investors are best served by slower changes to the index, especially since index funds are intended to piggy back on the price discovery that happens in public trading. An IPO price, which is the result of a private negotiation, is exactly what you don't want to buy stocks at if you're a passive, long term investor.

If it is actually growing company with growing valuation being a year late is not big deal over say 10 or 20 years. It is actually the smart move.

How is that the smart move? It's exactly what OP stated as undesirable for index fund investors. The price discovery of the public markets hasn't taken place yet.

Re: Can the stockmarket swallow Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI?

#550

Post by saidnooneever »

moffkalast wrote: post #460
saidnooneever wrote: post #456

Earlier quoted context omitted.

i read it as most likely people will lose their retirements if the companies goes bust. is that correct? in my country now they move to new pension model which will allow more aggressive investments with them. i am worried it will just get sent to these bros and i'll work until i die.

The reason they're doing that is because traditional European ponzi scheme pension systems don't work with shrinking populations, so actually we're working till we die in either case unless automation taxes pay for it.

each few years the pension age rises 69 for me now, but it will likely go up further. much further up is beyond the average life expectancy...
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