501–510 of 915 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Most people don't think of 2% annual growth as exponential.
“Most people” could not accurately define the word “exponential” even if they were offered an exponential amount of money every year to do so.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Please note that Lombardy has a very very good health service. The OECD put a score on this [1]: 9.9/10. This is in the top 5% across all regions. Other european regions seem to have lower average scores and their governments are not taking serious actions. [2] How the US is reacting from my perspective (italian confined near Rome) seems borderline madness. Something about this situation confuses me a lot. [1] https:…
Politicians have no understanding of exponential growth. They look at low numbers and think "we have a lot of time" then are surprised later when they in fact don't.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
And of course in the US there are not as many testing kits as in other countries, so the numbers are basically 3 months behind.
I live in Seattle, so I’ve been following the WA outbreak with particular fervor. What is utterly batshit insane to me is that as of YESTERDAY, the nursing home with almost every death in the USA STILL didn’t have enough testing kits to test the 63 residents left, nevermind the dozens of staff. They received 45 test kits. Total. This is AFTER Mike Pence visited the state and assured everyone that “millions” of kits w…
Italy is a country of 60M+ people and the 8th largest economy in the world, with a very high national debt and that significantly relies on tourism for its economy. Above and beyond the Coronavirus, this can terribly affect the long-term solvency of the country.
Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.
The Italian Department of Civil Protection is now publishing detailed confirmed case statistics on GitHub. I just finished throwing together a little animated map of of how it's been spreading across provinces: https://observablehq.com/@jashkenas/italy-coronavirus-daily-...
I reply with my humble contribution, based mainly on John Hopkins' data. I tried to understand if the effect of restrictions is already visible (I hope it will... since I live in Milan), thus I fitted an exponential on the data from the week before March 1 (when the initial mild restrictions started) and compared with the actual growth.
https://www.kaggle.com/mattiamonga/covid19
The model is quite simplistic, but the decrease seems real. Let's hope a bigger one will happen in the next days.
Is anyone here aware of some research trying to quantify the death toll of such a large-scale quarantine? For instance, closing universities could result many years later in ill-trained doctors and then bad diagnostics. The economic downfalls could result in an increase of poverty and homelessness-related deaths and suicides.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
My gut feeling from Italy: May, difficult. June, maybe. But expect that this disease expands to almost everywhere so what's going to be the status of your country by then, regardless where you are from? I'm not expecting to be able to travel much this summer, not because I'm from Italy but because every country is going to have its own share of problems.
Thoughts on the UK? I'm supposed to go on a vacation to England for a week starting April 1st
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not even sure who are the "mission-focused bureaucrats" and who are the "administration loyalists" in that thread. But for the love of God, can we please stop politicizing this issue? Can we please have a moratorium on blaming the other side for whatever measures should / should not be taken? Frankly, nobody knows what to do. Here we are, pondering what to do with the kids. * The school district is open for busin…
Are you saying we should stop blaming the other side because you think the other side isn’t to blame? What if there’s reasonable ways to explain how the other side is to blame? Or are you making an epistemological claim that the other side is never to blame? Or are you claiming that, even if the other side is to blame, we shouldn’t focus on that until we solve the problem?
Exactly! That is what is meant by not letting polarized politics drive the issue. We shouldn't care what 'side' is doing what, we should be focused on preventing an epidemic. Personally, IDGAF about assigning blame to any side, I'd rather that the petty bickering is dropped and effective measures are taken.
I realize the climate in the US isn't conducive to this, but assigning blame doesn't fix anything. Rather than blaming people, effective steps need to be taken. Focusing on assigning blame just puts the other side on the defensive; which is counterproductive to the kind of cooperation that will be needed to effectively respond to this crisis.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
To be clear, I don't believe the following (Hanlon's razor, etc), but it would make a good dystopian/thriller: As some point one might consider if governments see COVID-19 as an opportunity to "cull the herd". Japan and Italy have the two largest aging populations of any countries. The US has a large number of citizens with COVID-19 comorbidities. I'm not sure if the long term savings on entitlements and health care…
I'll give you a different basis for a conspiracy theory: China got COVID-19 first. And got over it first. US and Europe are going to be devastated by it. I'm guessing Russia will fare no better. In the aftermath, who's going to be on top on the global scene?
China didn't get over COVID-19. They're still seeing double-digit deaths daily and new infections. They're going to see recurring new networks and pockets appear repeatedly. Endlessly if the virus has endured in other countries. They aren't coming out on top of this, especially given the absolutely enormous GDP damage they've already endured.
So this is awaiting all countries, in all likelihood? I mean what's the difference between Italy and Switzerland? Or Germany? Or the United States?
The united states is going to fare a lot worse. Their president is actively contradicting his own experts and essentially encouraging people to go on spreading the disease. It's going to be a clusterfuck.