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Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

bbc.com

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Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#111

Post by Melting_Harps »

thefz wrote: post #78
Melting_Harps wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly. And has one of the lowest fertility rates [1] in not just the EU, but in the World. Odd considering how just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. They keep trying to monetarily incentivize increasing birth-rates, much like Jap…

>just a generation ago having a large catholic, and poor, family was one of the most prominent qualities of Italian life. I would not say so, no. That's speculation, this has not been true even for the south for a long time now. The only large, poor families you see are from immigrants nowadays.

What is a long time? I lived and worked in the Central part in Emilia Romanga, an affluent albeit largely communist part of Italy, and I saw it amongst farming families, although most had since abandoned Catholicism. Many of the older children had left for Germany, Switzerland, Austria or Holland for work to send money back home.

But, and this was just my personal experience since I was in the EU during the financial crisis; Italy, much like Spain and the other so called PIIGS, is a country plagued with underemployment and little to no social mobility for those under the age of mid 30s for the most part.

And while I cannot attest to the number of their siblings or their religious beliefs, to say Italy itself is not is rather difficult to believe given my first hand experiences.

I remember walking down the piazzas during the day to set up shop in the central parts of town, and the amount of large groups of 20 year olds (I was in my 20s back then too) were there day and night drinking in public was astonishing.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#112

Post by ThisIsTheWay »

wpasc wrote: post #51
ThisIsTheWay wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.

have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do

We had a cutoff-date approaching for refundability of one of our bookings, otherwise we would have waited to see what happens over the next few weeks.

If you can afford to wait, I'd ride it out a bit longer.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#113

Post by oarabbus_ »

tiborsaas wrote: post #60
oarabbus_ wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The ripple effect of potential Italian bank defaults will ripple throughout the EU and the USA as well.

The ripple effect is already in place. Flybe airline just defaulted, I've read a post on Linkedin that a small catering firm is suffering in Hungary due to cancelled events and other companies in the food chain will probably suffer a lot more especially if they operate with a razor thin margin. After the human factor, the virus will hit the economy hard. It's probably only a matter of time till it triggers a serious…

Ripple effect has hardly started. It's v0.1, expect the ripples from China's Dec shutdown to hit late Q1 and throughout all of Q2, if not longer.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#114

Post by humaniania »

skybrian wrote: post #84
bonzini wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common sense measures include washing your hands, not avoiding Chinese restaurants. But yes, it wasn't perfect. At least there was no generalized denial.

It seems like we should be reconsidering all restaurant meals? Why take the risk if you can eat at home?

It lessens the impact on the local economy. Restaurant workers are a generally vulnerable population in the US with little or no PTO and they often have poor access to health care.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#115

Post by ohazi »

PeterStuer wrote: post #107
paganel wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope (and suspect) that the ECB (and Europe as a whole) will financially stand behind Italy, no questions asked (I'm a fellow European).

You seem to forget that the ECB is there for the banks, not for the people or their countries.

The financial stakeholders in these banks and in Europe as a whole have a powerful motivation to contain this pandemic.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#116

Post by bonzini »

zaroth wrote: post #90
napolux wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’re testing more than any country in Europe (or the USA)

A useful metric is the number of tests which are coming back positive. I’d say if it’s 3% or higher then you are testing limited.

It's 10%. Not unexpected since only people with symptoms are being tested.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#117

Post by J_cst »

afiori wrote: post #93
J_cst wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have been reviewing the situation with a colleague of mine, and we have now realized that the new measures are not enough. It makes no sense to allow burger king or any bar to stay open util 6 p.m. And it makes no sense to allow to go to work for any undeferrable (or also deferrable) reason. The only effective measure seems logically to be quarantine, and for me and my family (2+2), from tomorrow afternoon quaranti…

The problem with this is that a 14 day total economic halt will be devastating. Even assuming all office workers work remote basic social structure will be endangered. The hospitals need to stay open, people need to keep operating water and electricity utilities, food distribution needs to continue as many do not have 14 days of stock at home. It is not about those dams politician that only care about reelection numb…

Quarantine for everything but the very bare minimum services (the ones you mention but the food which can be distributed home to home) seems the only logical path to the resolution of the matter. The spread of the virus caused by a relaxed quarantine (as the one enforced now, based on people good will) will certainly cause the collapse of the system you are describing due to the saturation of the hospitals. During tonight's news, journalist Mentana showed graphs describing a significant decrease in contagion in the Lodi and Codogno areas, i.e. in those areas where the most drastic measures have been taken. In order to have a functioning economy, I believe it is necessary to have a population and not just what remains of it.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#118

Post by bonzini »

cleandreams wrote: post #34

The fatality rate of Italy is scary high. I read the reason is that they have such a high percentage of elderly.

Yes, it's Simpson's paradox. Fatality rate is lower in Italy than in China for all individual age ranges, but the overall rate is higher in Italy because of the older population.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#119

Post by zachguo »

paganel wrote: post #21

Unreal, a month ago (February 7th) I was posting this news story [1] related to the city of Shenzen which was about to be put into some form of lockdown, it only received one upvote. A month from that event and we have an entire European country (a G7 member to add) under lockdown. I guess the normalcy bias [2] was too strong for too many people until reality hit us hard in the face. [1] https://www.epochtimes.com/gb…

TBH epochtimes.com is not a legit news source. It's run by the cult group who also produces Shen Yun.

Re: Italy is extending its coronavirus quarantine measures to the entire country

#120

Post by pmontra »

wpasc wrote: post #51
ThisIsTheWay wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fully agreed, this is a big concern of mine as well. We've got a 2 week trip planned to Italy in May, but that is likely to get cancelled this week based on the growing concerns throughout the country. I am fully expecting to reschedule our same trip later in the year, but until the virus starts to slow down significantly, I'm not comfortable rebooking.

have a trip scheduled first 2 weeks in june, also unsure of what to do

My gut feeling from Italy: May, difficult. June, maybe.

But expect that this disease expands to almost everywhere so what's going to be the status of your country by then, regardless where you are from? I'm not expecting to be able to travel much this summer, not because I'm from Italy but because every country is going to have its own share of problems.

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