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The future of software development is software developers

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Re: The future of software development is software developers

#481

Post by 8note »

sod22 wrote: post #368
theshrike79 wrote: post #337

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "real programming" people are moving the goalposts of their no true scotsman fallacy so fast they're leaving Roadrunner style dust behind them. Yes, there are things LLMs can't do at all, some where they are actively dangerous. But also there are decently sized parts of "software development" where any above average LLM can speed up the process as long as whoever is using it knows hot to do so and doesn't fight t…

Who cares. Focus on what matters. OAI knows this considering they are dedicating a lot of their resources toward figuring out how to become profitable.

isnt OAI only unprofitable because they are putting all their money into more training?

the product market fit for LLMs is already clearly found, there's just no moat to it. tokens are a commodity

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#482

Post by aspenmartin »

leptons wrote: post #160
threethirtytwo wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m an expert in what I do. A professional, and few people can do what I do. I have to say you are wrong. AI is changing the game. What you’ve written here might’ve been more relevant about 9 months ago, but everything has changed.

This is a typical no-proof "AI"-boosting response, and from an account created only 35 days ago.

Proof of what? Should you also have to prove you are not a bot sponsored by short-sellers? It’s all so so silly, anti-AI crowds on HN rehash so many of the same tired arguments it’s ridiculous:

- bad for environment: how? Why? - takes all creative output and doesn’t credit: common crawl has been around for decades and models have been training for decades, the difference is that now they’re good. Regurgitating training data is a known issue for which there are mitigations but welcome to the world of things not being as idealistic as some Stallman-esque hellscape everyone seems to want to live in - it’s bad and so no one should use it and any professionals who do don’t know what they’re doing: I have been so fortunate to personally know some of the brightest minds on this planet (Astro departmentments, AI research labs) and majority of them use AI for their jobs.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#483

Post by aspenmartin »

llmslave2 wrote: post #184
user34283 wrote: post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How would you know whether he is an expert on the topic of software engineering or not? For all I know, he is more competent than you; he figured out how to utilize Claude Code in a productive way, which is a point for him. I'd have to guess whether you are an expert working on software not well suited for AI, or just average with a stubborn attitude towards AI and potentially not having tried the latest generation o…

> How would you know whether he is an expert on the topic of software engineering or not? Because of their views on the effectiveness of AI agents for generating code.

Right: they disagree with me and so must not know what they’re talking about. Hey guess how I know neither of you are all as good as you think you are: your egos! You know what the brightest people at the top of their respective fields have in common? They tend not to think that new technologies they don’t understand how to use are dumb and they don’t think everyone who disagrees with them is dumb!

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#484

Post by robotnikman »

solaire_oa wrote: post #356

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

>I run local LLMs infrequently, and every single prompt makes my beefy PC sounds like a jet engine taking off. It's a great reminder to not become codependent.

I would try setting the GPU to run at a lower power level. I set my GPU power level to 80% and it becomes much quieter, and only runs maybe 5% slower at most.

Also I 100% agree with the rest of your comment. We can only power the current growth we are seeing for so long.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#485

Post by akkad33 »

solaire_oa wrote: post #356

Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…

So what'll happen to all these companies building on top of openai license. I don't hear these warnings in professional circles, only online

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#486

Post by mcbishop »

compiler-devel wrote: post #479
PTOB wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As someone who works on the design and construction of datacenters, I cannot stress enough how apropos this comment is. Even before the first conversation in your IDE starts, the load on national and local government resources, local utility capacity, and roadway infrastructure is enormous. We're all paying whether we're using the tools or not.

Nearly nobody cares about the load on “national and local government resources, local utility capacity, and roadway infrastructure” for any other day-to-day activity. Why should they care about the same for AI which for most people is “out there online” somewhere? Related my, crypto bros worried about electricity usage only so far as its expense went and whether they could move closer to hydro dams.

The parent comment's point is that we _should_ care because cheap frontier-model access (that many of us have quickly become hopelessly dependent on) might be temporary.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#487

Post by nuancebydefault »

sarchertech wrote: post #396
philipkglass wrote: post #388

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can assume that already-published open weights models are available at $0, regardless of how much money was sunk into their original development. These models will look increasingly stale over time but most software development doesn't change quickly. If a model can generate capable and up-to-date Python, C++, Java, or Javascript code in 2025 then you can expect it to still be a useful model in 2035 (based on the…

>2025-2035 Depending on other people to maintain backward compatibility so that you can keep coding like it’s 2025 is its own problematic dependency. You could certainly do it but it would be limiting. Imagine that you had a model trained on examples from before 2013 and your boss wants you to take over maintenance for a React app.

2013 was pre-LLM. If devs continue relying on LLMs and their training would stop (which i would find unlikely), still the tools around the LLMs will continue to evolve and new language features will get less attention and would only be used by people who don't like to use LLMs. Then it would be a race of popularity between new language (features) and using LLMs steering 'old' programming languages and APIs. Its not always the best technology that wins, often its the most popular one. You know what happened during the browser wars.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#488

Post by enraged_camel »

jimbo808 wrote: post #476
enraged_camel wrote: post #434

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not the OP but I just got done with a codebase-wide re-architecture (driven by a need for a complex data migration) in a little ~2.5 weeks. 800+ files changed, 60k+ line diff. Without AI it would have taken me several months, and that is only if I managed to avoid burnout. The vendor quotes we got just to see if we could outsource the work were all six figures.

Did you thoroughly review the 60k line diff?

Yes, every line.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#489

Post by nuancebydefault »

perhapsAnLLM wrote: post #291
snickerer wrote: post #198

After working with agent-LLMs for some years now, I can confirm that they are completely useless for real programming. They never helped me solve complex problems with low-level libraries. They can not find nontrivial bugs. They don't get the logic of interwoven layers of abstractions. LLMs pretend to do this with big confidence and fail miserably. For every problem I need to turn my brain to ON MODE and wake up, the…

"they are completely useless for real programming" You and I must have completely different definitions of "real programming". In this very comment, you described a problem that the model solved. The solution may not have involved low-level programming, or discovering a tricky bug entrenched in years-worth of legacy code, but still a legitimate task that you, as a programmer, would've needed to solve otherwise. How i…

"real programming" hits a "true scottsman" snare with me.

Re: The future of software development is software developers

#490

Post by englishspot »

spicyusername wrote: post #280
snickerer wrote: post #198

After working with agent-LLMs for some years now, I can confirm that they are completely useless for real programming. They never helped me solve complex problems with low-level libraries. They can not find nontrivial bugs. They don't get the logic of interwoven layers of abstractions. LLMs pretend to do this with big confidence and fail miserably. For every problem I need to turn my brain to ON MODE and wake up, the…

I can confirm that they are completely useless for real programming And I can confirm, with similar years of experience, that they are not useless. Absolutely incredible tools that have saved hours and hours helping me understand large codebases, brainstorm features, and point out gaps in my implementation or understanding. I think the main disconnect in the discourse is that there are those pretending they can relia…

I feel like I have to be strategic with my use of claude code. things like frequently clearing out sessions to minimize context, writing the plan out to a file so that I can review it more effectively myself and even edit it, breaking problems down into consumable chunks, attacking those chunks in separate sessions, etc. it's a lot of prep work I have to do to make the tool thrive. that doesn't mean it's useless, though.
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