I think "The Bitter Lesson" is relevant here [1]. This wave IS different. It isn't a matter of "if" but "when". I am a long-time software developer too... but I am strongly encouraging people to embrace the future now and get creative in finding ways to adapt. There will always be demand for smart and creative people. BUT ... if you don't look up and look around you right now at some point you will be irrelevant. Als…
The future of software development is software developers
431–440 of 588 posts
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#432> Edgar Dijkstra called it nearly 50 years ago: we will never be programming in English, or French, or Spanish. Natural languages have not evolved to be precise enough and unambiguous enough. Semantic ambiguity and language entropy will always defeat this ambition. This is the most important quote for any AI coding discussion. Anyone that doesn't understand how the tools they use came to be is doomed to reinvent them…
Are they?
I feel like AIs fill in a lot of the blanks with reasonable assumptions rather than the input being precise
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#433Earlier quoted context omitted.
The proof is all around you. I am talking about software professionals not some bullshit spread sheet thing. What I’m saying is this: From my pov Everyone is using LLMs to write code now. The overwhelming majority of software products in existence today are now being changed with LLM code. The majority of software products being created from scratch are also mostly LLM code. This is obvious to me. It’s not speculatio…
> Your company and the people around you haven’t started using it because the culture hasn’t caught up. We have been using LLMs since 2021, if I havent repeated that enough in these threads. What culture do I have to catch up with? I have been paying top tier LLM models for my entire team since it became an option. Do you think you are proselytizing to the un-initiated here? That is a naive view at best. My issue is…
Obviously your team disagrees that it’s a worse replacement for google or else why demand it against your will?
> at worst a huge danger in the hands of people who dont know what they are doing.
I agree with this. But the upside negates this and I agree with your own team on that.
Btw if you’re paying top dollar for AI.. your developers are unlikely using it as a google search replacement. At top dollar AI is used as an agent. What it ends up doing is extremely different from a google search in this mode. That may be good or bad but it is a distinctly different outcome then a google search and that makes your google analogy ill fitted to what your team is actually using it for.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#434Earlier quoted context omitted.
Sure thing. I work on a few projects for my company. The main one is an Android and iOS audiobook-media-player app. I had to update the Android side to use the Google Media3 library instead of the legacy ExoPlayer library. In a typical app this would be pretty straightforward, but we’ve mixed in a lot of custom elements that made the transition quite challenging. I actually attempted it manually back in the day and p…
> I can point to many examples > ...easily a week or more Got any examples worth "easily a week or more?"
Without AI it would have taken me several months, and that is only if I managed to avoid burnout. The vendor quotes we got just to see if we could outsource the work were all six figures.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#435Earlier quoted context omitted.
Have we though? 1. Fundamentals do change, Yuval Noah Harari made this point in the book Sapiens, but basically there are core beliefs (in fact the idea that things do change for the better is relatively new, “the only constant is change”. Wasn’t really true before the 19th century. What does “the great disrupter we can’t adapt to” mean exactly? If humans annihilate themselves from climate change, the earth will adap…
Isn’t this “healthy, large middle class” a reality that is less than 100 years old in the best of cases? (After a smaller initial emergence perhaps 100 years prior to that.) In 250K years since modern humans emerged, that’s a comparative blink of an eye. There might be slight local dips along the timeline, but I think most Westerners (and maybe most people, but my lived experience is Western) would not willingly trad…
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#436Earlier quoted context omitted.
Go with Laravel and some admin packages and you generate CRUD pages in minutes. And I think with Django, that is builtin. But I don’t think I’ve seen pure CRUD on anything other than prototype. Add an Identity and Access Management subsystem and the complexity of requirements will explode. Then you add integration to external services and legacy systems, and that’s where the bulk of the work is. And there’s the scala…
>Creating CRUD app is barely a level over starting a new project with the IDE wizard. For you, maybe. But for a non-progrmamer who's starting a business or just needs a website it's the difference between hiring some web dev firm and doing it themselves.
> it's the difference between hiring some web dev firm and doing it themselves.
anecdote but i've had a lot of acquaintances who started at both "hiring some web dev firm" and "doing it themselves" with results largely being the same: "help me fix this unmaintainable mess and i will pay you x"...jmo but i suspect llms will allow for the later to go further before the "help me" phase but i feel like that aint going away completely...
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#437Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
> One day when the well runs dry, you must be able to either pay the actual cost What multiple of the current cost do you expect? Currently, GitHub Copilot and ChatGPT for Business cost $19/month and €29/month respectively. Even a 10×–20× increase will still be economically viable in a professional setting if the tools continue to save hours of work.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#438Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
I always liken it to using Uber in ~2012. It was fun to get around major metro areas for dirt cheap. But then prices rose dramatically over the next decade+ as the company was forced to wean itself off of VC subsidies.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#439Most people in this thread are quibbling about the exact degree of utility LLMs provide, which a tedious argument. What's more interesting to me is, per the article, the concern regarding everyone who is leaning into LLMs without realizing (or downplaying) the exorbitant, externalized cost. Our current LLM usage is being subsidized to the point of being free by outside investment. One day when the well runs dry, you…
First of all, there could be other solutions, such as B2B subsidizing individual user plans, or more fine grained model tiering per cost.
Also, yes you can get some access for free, but even today the higher tiers of proprietary models is around $200/mo for individual users, which might still be subsidized but is definitely not free, and is quite a chunk of money at $2400 a year!
I don't know what your setup is at the moment, but it's possible more efficient hardware and stack are available that you're not utilizing. Of course this depends on what models you're trying to run.
I think that smaller models will become a lot better, and hardware will become more optimized as well. We're starting to see this with NPUs and TPUs.
All this means running models will cost less, and maybe upgrading the power grid will also reduce cost of energy, making it more affordable.
I don't see any way that AI will go away because it "hits a wall". We have long passed the point of no return.
Re: The future of software development is software developers
#440Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I think it’s obvious who lacks critical thinking. My critical thinking is sharp enough to recognize that you're the recently banned ninetyninenine user [0]. Just as unbalanced and quarrelsome as before I can see. It's probably better to draw some conclusion from a ban and adjust, or just leave. [0] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45988923
I’m not that guy lol. Why don’t you respond to my points rather than attack me.
Because I believe you have a "flexible" relationship to the truth, so I'm not wasting any more time.