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US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

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Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#451

Post by danielmarkbruce »

fragmede wrote: post #432
danielmarkbruce wrote: post #298

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's just about how are you measuring the slope? Like, when you first learn derivatives and the math teacher draws a line between two points on a curve, then draws another from points closer together, then draws the tangent, then goes through how you get to a derivative function etc. The yoy is just using two points very far apart. The mom is using two points closer together. It would be nice but practically impossib…

I can get the prices for goods online, and then get them delivered to my house. Getting the CPI more often seems entirely feasible to me if we really wanted to.

Maybe. But online isn't the only place to buy, and to arrive at a single number they do all kinds of adjustments to account for seasons, locations etc.

If you are right, I'd guess the cost benefit probably isn't there regardless.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#452

Post by dcow »

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #442
dcow wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sigh. Obviously we’re talking time here. The scale on the X axis, the interval that appears on the graph between two points, is different if every unit is a month vs a year. Months and years are different units of time. IDK… nobody is really trying to figure out how to interpret the data. People were just commenting that “declines to X%” actually still means that it’s gone up YoY and not that it’s declining YoY and h…

Scale is the same. The CPI reports every month. It's one chart, a single index, one point per month. They just take the recent point and the point from a year ago and do the math and report the change. For mom they do the recent point and the one before that, do the math and report. Some people actually know what the CPI is, how it gets reported, and understand the shortcomings of said reporting. If you aren't one of…

I… do… know that. That’s why I’m trying to clear up the shitstorm you’re causing by deliberately being provocative. You sound like a manager trying to deceive reports into thinking they don’t need an inflation bump this year because “look inflation is lessening” or something.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#453

Post by sparrc »

slaymaker1907 wrote: post #356

MoM inflation is still unfortunately 0.4% which is about 5% annualized. I think it's unfortunate that reporting focuses around yearly inflation which isn't really useful for talking about inflation in the moment.

Interesting, that does seem like a more useful metric. Where do you find that data?

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#454

Post by daniel-cussen »

substation13 wrote: post #25
transcriptase wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’re saying you don’t buy a new TV every time you get groceries?

Even if you did, the stats are suspect. They include the screen area of the TV in the calculation, so TVs are getting better for the price, but not cheaper to the extent being suggested.

No post body was provided.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#455

Post by Dylan16807 »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #175
thomastjeffery wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They effectively said, "The increase went down." It would have been much clearer for them to say, "The increase has slowed."

This is like the 3rd derivative, right? e.g. we now have a slightly lower rate of acceleration towards the cliff than before?

The velocity has slowed.

Also there isn't a cliff, there's only speed bumps for going too fast. At least if movement=inflation.

On the other hand if the "cliff" is supposed to be a specific level of inflation, then we didn't just slow down, we're walking away from it.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#456

Post by fundad »

Auracle wrote: post #342
mrtranscendence wrote: post #235

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Everyone got a relatively small amount of money for free. It was nowhere near the amount that would be necessary to cause this amount of inflation.

Plenty of people got a lot more than the usual stimulus checks. People with multiple kids got quite a bit. I’m a photographer and was able to collect unemployment on weeks I didn’t make enough, or spent enough on expenses to offset my profits. That means all of my usual expenses during that period were paid for (unless I made nothing or too much that week), plus a lot of weeks it made sense for me to get new equipmen…

Now multiply that by every large corporation with their tax cuts since 2017. At least a lot of the money was borrowed at very low interest rates (from ourselves).

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#457

Post by BeetleB »

alistairSH wrote: post #148
hnburnsy wrote: post #94

Anyone notice that brand name soda (looking at you Coke) has increased almost 100% while the generic/house brand has had slight increases. I feel like Coke is testing the pricing limits of its customers especially with the smaller packaging and these prices will not come back down.

Of course they are. There was a much-watched video that went around a few weeks ago that composed quite a few CEOs talking about pushing the pricing envelope to take advantage of inflation news (effectively saying: "People now expect price increases, we can leverage that to our gain!"). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=psYyiu9j1VI

I think the restaurant industry is going crazy with this. Yesterday I stopped at a food cart. The price of a gyro sandwich was $13. It didn't come with fries. I asked how much for a side of fries. $6. Throw in a drink and add another $2. So a sandwich, fries and drink "combo" is over $20.

And this is from a food cart, mind you - not a restaurant. And not a fancy food cart that people drive miles to try their unique food. Just a few years ago that sandwich would have been $8-9.

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#458

Post by citilife »

lunaru wrote: post #31

It bears repeating because this is a common mistake in inflation discussions: a decrease in inflation metrics means price increases are slowing down, it doesn’t mean that prices are going down （that would require a negative CPI print). Also, this number is year over year, so the decrease just means the price increases between Oct 21 and Oct 22 are not as steep as between Sept 21 to Sept 22, which is not hard to achie…

The number is largely manipulated anyway. It's more complex than even this because you have to account for price elasticity. They are giving oil a very wide fluctuation, for instance.

I've been tracking my expenses since 2015 and they're up around ~50% since then, for effectively the same food (eggs, bread, meat, etc). I eat ~2800-3000 calories per day (which I also track) and that's been consistent.

According to BLS it should be up only 27%, but everyone knows that's just not true. Remember ~1 year ago when the administration was calling prices "transitory", that means they're claiming a larger elasticity in prices so inflation doesn't look bad because they believe they'll come back down (soon).

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#459

Post by sn0wf1re »

coding123 wrote: post #368
matwood wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to add to your explanation, because inflation jumped so quickly and then slowed we'll eventually hit a YoY number that plummets. If milk is $4/gallon today and still $4/gallon 12 mos. from now, that's 0% YoY inflation. This will inevitably lead to people saying the numbers are fake because milk used to be $2/gallon.

It's bullshit because it's an average of everything that no one buys. My grocery bills have doubled since 2020, meaning my CPI was 100% over 3 years. I will not shut up as you and many others are trying to force me into accept it's 10% inflation.

The Canadian government provides a personal inflation calculator. You may see higher or lower personal inflation than CPI. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2020cal...

Re: US annual inflation declines to 7.7% in October vs. 7.9% expected

#460

Post by danielmarkbruce »

dcow wrote: post #435
danielmarkbruce wrote: post #322

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You appear to be saying: factually reported data cannot be misleading. This is wrong, but so obviously so that you must be making another point?

Misleading implies the data has some agency. Data cannot be misleading. People can make whatever conclusions they want based on data at hand and it’s just bad analysis if it’s wrong. The data didn't mislead them.

Weird take. Most will agree "deliberately misleading" is what you are talking about.
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