TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months • Hacker News Board

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#381

Post by blackrock » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 11:39 AM UTC

0xy wrote: post #325

_7fvc wrote: post #260

I see this news as a loss for the US. It has to resort to regulations to stop TSMC from doing business with Huawei. When you can't incentivize your ally, that means your opponent's business is still very attractive. Regulations will only cripple your ally. Taiwan may comply on the outside. But inside, they'll cut under-the-table deals with China. They'll find loop holes to skirt regulations. Taiwan seems to be headin…

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

> The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options.

Exactly what do you mean by “nuclear options” here?

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#382

Post by ethbro » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 11:41 AM UTC

threeseed wrote: post #182

nafey wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you are calling monoculture is somewhere around 1/6th population of the world. If you take into the account the inroads that China has made into Africa, Middle East and Eastern Europe we might be seeing ourselves entering another phase of the cold war.

Those inroads are disintegrating. The quality of the deliverables hasn’t been great, they have been poorly managed and have left many countries either in significant debt or with onerous obligations.

That's the problem with state-driven investment. Most people are lazy and/or greedy, and given a known state-sponsored payday, have no incentive to deliver quality.

So even if the Chinese state may want the projects to go well, the conduit by which the projects are funded and managed doesn't have much more than shame and prison as sticks, and that's only for people who are caught.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#383

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 11:45 AM UTC

supernova87a wrote: post #368

0xy wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US will defend Taiwan by any means necessary, including nuclear options. If they don't, they've already lost to China. Chip superiority is everything. If the US can't manufacture or source modern chips then it's over for them. US leaders and the military know this to be true. Taiwan is not Hong Kong. The US doesn't need Hong Kong. The US needs Taiwan.

You think the US is prepared to use nuclear weapons in a conflict involving Taiwan? Over semiconductor chips? (or are you using "nuclear option" in the rhetorical sense?) Or, given your next sentence says "if they don't..." I suppose you're only offering a non-expert sports-fan level of opinion. Well, my opinion is that the US government, and the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any…

>the US public, is unwilling and has been demonstrably unable to muster any kind of support for significant military force over any issue that is complex and intangible

Americans would be directly affected by a conflict. Where do all of these electronics come from?

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#384

Post by socialdemocrat » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 11:49 AM UTC

I don’t like the CCP but I also find it extremely distasteful how the US is always bossing around their smaller allies. Alliance with the US is such a one sided deal.

America is a poor role model. Through these actions it is really just telling China that “night is right” It is like saying “When you become as powerful as us, you also get to boss around small countries”

I really wish the world was not as dominated by a few hyper powers.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#385

Post by Xixi » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 11:58 AM UTC

Traster wrote: post #374

Xixi wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared…

>When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones Apple went to Samsung didn't they?

Indeed, until the A8 it was Samsung, then the A9 was split between Samsung and TSMC. And from the A10 it was TSMC only. In any case, Apple cash going away didn't help Intel. I'm pretty sure it helps financing TSMC RnD now, just like it helped financing Samsung RnD before.

Now Huawei cash is going to finance SMIC. It's cash being funneled at a competitor, supported by the Chinese government. Which means that if Huawei is not competitive because of SMIC, SMIC is going to get further money/intelligence from the Chinese government to become competitive. I don't see how TSMC, Samsung or Intel win from that situation, at least in the long term.

I can be completely wrong of course, and maybe China will be in a similar situation to that of the Soviet Union during the cold war: without access to competitive electronics. But SMIC is not that far behind, or are they? They can do 14nm, so they are at TSMC level of 2016. 4 years late? Without ASML support though, it might be harder to catch up.

I think TSMC having to drop Huawei is more a side effect of American sanctions than anything being done by design. Again I can be wrong. US sanctions are very far reaching and problematic for a lot of companies (see: Airbus, BNP Paribas, etc.), it doesn't mean that these companies in particular are targeted by the US. Unintended consequences.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#386

Post by bserge » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 12:24 PM UTC

dirtyid wrote: post #273

bserge wrote: post #107

I'm actually cautiously excited about new competition in high end semiconductor fabrication. Huawei and China won't just sit around twiddling their thumbs, they've got to manufacture chips somehow/somewhere.

EU is trying to enter the game as well. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH... >But putting a halt to a decrease is not enough. Now we must invest massively, with the objective to produce in Europe high performance processors (with a 2 to 3nm of feature size) and reach 20% of the world capacity in value.

That would be extremely nice, but sadly I don't see it happening right now. Strange, since the EU has some major designers and suppliers of specialized equipment for the purpose. But maybe we can get a fab in Eastern Europe somewhere in the future. Don't know why you're downvoted.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#387

Post by amelius » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 12:43 PM UTC

socialdemocrat wrote: post #384

I don’t like the CCP but I also find it extremely distasteful how the US is always bossing around their smaller allies. Alliance with the US is such a one sided deal. America is a poor role model. Through these actions it is really just telling China that “night is right” It is like saying “When you become as powerful as us, you also get to boss around small countries” I really wish the world was not as dominated by…

> I also find it extremely distasteful how the US is always bossing around their smaller allies.

Imo, you can boss around but only when you're acting like a "father figure" to the rest of the world.

Right now, the US is acting more like a grown-up baby.

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#388

Post by Xixi » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 12:44 PM UTC

ksec wrote: post #366

Xixi wrote: post #350

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When Intel refused to make Apple's ARM processor for iPhones, TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. Of course, Intel and TSMC both shop with ASML, and that's not a possibility anymore for SMIC, so it's not a quite similar comparison... Yet I think it's important to keep some perspective: this Chinese/US spat is not a championship where a winner will be declared…

>TSMC was also unable to build a competitive high-end SOC. And yet 13 years later, here we are. I think this doesn't paint an accurate picture. TSMC were "high end" sans Intel. Since you cant Fab with Intel, TSMC was the best any Fabless Vendor could get, now it just happen TSMC is also the best in industry. Compared to SMIC, they aren't even close to TSMC, nor Samsung, or even Global Foundry. In Tech lead, Volume an…

You are right indeed, TSMC probably didn't need Apple cash to get to where they are now. I forgot that for a very long time Apple was shopping at Samsung...

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#389

Post by syshum » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 12:45 PM UTC

puranjay wrote: post #372

syshum wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> I would look to China instead of USA and now you know why China is investing in Pakistan, it is not because they are good hearted wanting to help Pakistan It is destabilize the Region by putting a wedge between the US and Pakistan, The US keeps Pakistan and India stable, if the US loses it's influence over Pakistan well that will be very bad for the region.

I'm not defending Chinese actions in Pakistan (I am Indian; I have no reasons to). I'm just pointing out that Chinese actions have been consistent and hence, more reliable.

Authoritarian regimes that never change their power structures will always be more "reliable"

Not sure that is really an advantage or defense. One would hope more than just "reliable" would go into a complete foreign policy

Re: TSMC plans to halt chip supplies to Huawei in 2 months

#390

Post by KMag » Fri, Jul 17, 2020, 12:46 PM UTC

paulmd wrote: post #113

jacquesm wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's so funny. ASML holds the market for a reason, this is not so simple. You could probably do it on a Friday night but the Chinese may take a bit longer than that.

the question is - how much of that "reason" is protectionism (patents, etc)? if you no longer care about pissing off the US and EU (because they're up in your business anyway) then maybe it doesn't matter so much if you violate those patents. Same thing as with Taiwan's "special trade status", Trump thinks that revoking their status will get China to leave them alone, because he has a very simplistic bullying-oriente…

> Same thing as with Taiwan's "special trade status", Trump thinks that revoking their status will get China to leave them alone, because he has a very simplistic bullying-oriented view of international politics, but it's widely predicted to have the exact opposite effect as intended and lock in PRC control.

Have I missed major developments, or have you confused Hong Kong and Taiwan?