371–380 of 1001 posts
It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Property taxes are not that relevant for the masses who can't afford to buy property.
It indirectly does though. Because property tax in california is always taxed at the amount you purchased your house at (as opposed to what your house is currently worth at), it incentivizes immobility. If you bought your house a decade ago it's going to be worth WAY more now than it is now. In a healthy market you might then either try to roll that extra equity into another place by either upsizing to get something…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Assuming the 1BR is 700+ sqft and the location is something like SOMA or Hayes Valley this would be a good deal. Yes SF rents are generally insane.
820sf and right between those two neighborhoods.
Luxury studios are going to $2400 already though.
Expecting further drops.
Yes, there are many people in Central Valley who can now afford to live out their dream of being in "the city".
A change of scenery is a change of scenery. I've met suddenly unencumbered East Coasters that roadtripped across during Phase 1 Shelter in Place, and they are content with the new environment.
I don't see these as demand drivers, as the replacements are not the economic powerhouses that were here: subsidized college kids and tech workers. So its nice if the city gets a diverse culture again, but in the topic of rent and housing prices, I wouldn't expect a rebound so optimistically.
These HN comments don't seem to grasp that there are two distinct groups of people here, and these trends can/will counteract eachother: the ones that are in the city for work, and the ones that are in the city because they love cities. COVID creates an exodus of one, but people in the latter category are also moving into cities as well as prices drop and they are no longer priced out. HN folks love to complain about…
The housing supply is essentially fixed in the short and medium term, so we will mostly see an equilibriation in prices to keep them mostly full. So it's trivially true that some people will move in as prices fall.
However, it's mistaken to think that all the people were in the city but now are leaving were there for jobs. There is a large population of folks who work south of SF, who moved there (and reverse commute) for the benefits of city living, but have now left because those benefits are largely absent with the pandemic.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except home prices are rocketing up rather than down ATM. If people are moving out, you’d think more of them would be selling their houses.
Mortgage interest rates at all-all-all time lows. It's a little ridiculous to say that given that mortgages are, say, a 50 year old product. All time not very long. But debt and interest have been with us for thousands of years and it is likely that there has never been such low cost liquidity for durable assets (houses) as there is now. When you think about why THAT is, it should make you worried to buy that house.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> as someone in NYC NYC is a legit megacity - New York has been described as the cultural, financial, and media capital of the world. SF is small by comparison. Only a small portion of SF is walkable and even then the blocks are long. Transit is sparse and dirty and most people end up owning cars. Despite this housing is more expensive than NYC. Unless you think it's reasonable to pay $4k a month for a one bedroom in…
Except San Francisco has nature (and even more nature close by) which makes all the difference to me. The few times I’ve been in NYC, I found the sheer amount of gray concrete and steel to be unnerving and dystopian; I’m legitimately amazed that humans can live in such an environment for so long without becoming depressed. That’s not to disparage the city or people who like it; there’s just many of us who need at lea…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Alternate experience: I just moved into SF a week ago from elsewhere in the Bay. I was able to get a large, modern, luxury 1BR in a decent location for under $3K + almost a 1 month concession and no deposit. Being a single, young(ish) guy, it still makes sense to be in a city. I have more space than I need now, and I can afford the rent. Maybe things aren’t that nice right now, but I’m hoping they’ll get back to semi…
What’s the decent location? Even without parking rent that seems extremely low for sf. Also luxury?
Luxury buildings are the primary ones offering more 1-2 month concessions, which really means rent has dropped another 18% than what is listed.
And this is without evictions on tenants, or foreclosures on homeowners. Both of which can't really get started until November or January due to local regulations and now backlog. This is with purely voluntary departures.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm in Europe and we generally pay between 33% to 50% of our income in tax. So, yeah, i can't really imagine being angry that you're being asked to contribute back to the society. Especially when you make 250k.
The marginal rate in California for high earners is well over 50%. That 8% you're referring to is just the state income tax portion applied to the entire income. Marginal rate for high earners includes: 37% federal. 13.3% state, plus FICA, social security, local taxes, etc. not to mention employer payroll tax and insurance premiums that are essentially passed on to employees but baked into tax in Europe). Taxes are s…
- 37% federal requires $510k income (after $12k personal exemption and probably $20k retirement savings)
- 13.3% state in California requires $1M income
- Social security is included in FICA and does not count towards the marginal rate for high earners (you pay no social security tax on income above $137k)
- Local taxes?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Except home prices are rocketing up rather than down ATM. If people are moving out, you’d think more of them would be selling their houses.
Mortgage interest rates at all-all-all time lows. It's a little ridiculous to say that given that mortgages are, say, a 50 year old product. All time not very long. But debt and interest have been with us for thousands of years and it is likely that there has never been such low cost liquidity for durable assets (houses) as there is now. When you think about why THAT is, it should make you worried to buy that house.
I am living in SF now and this confirms a very clear pattern that I have seen emerging, particularly of tech workers. I would say that >50% of the people I know who were living in the city have left, or are in the process of leaving. Some examples (there are countless): 1) All three of the roommates that I had are choosing to leave either permanently or temporarily. 2) A friend who works for google who is going on a…
Your friends are how representative of SF people? 1. Going on a road trip right now is a very bad idea 2. Most normal people don't have the ability (I guess if you're a high performer in tech?) to move to another high income English speaking country. 3. Moving to Santa Cruz is a joke if you're worried about cost of living. 4. Same with Austin.