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Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

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Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#21

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

Property taxes in California are among the lowest in the nation.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#22

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

That would run against the narrative. Completely agree.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#23

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

Wouldn't this then also be true of LA or San Jose, both mentioned in the article? It feels like you have a politcal axe to grind and came here to the comments before reading the article.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#24
It seems very tough to draw any conclusions on this just yet. The media has clearly latched onto a storyline of a mass exodus from American cities, but the reality is probably much more complex.

It seems plausible that SF already had such low inventory numbers that any change would look huge on a chart like this, though that doesn’t appear to be the case in the other highly competitive markets seen here. I’d love to see the actual monthly figures... maybe it’s true that there’s an exodus afoot, or maybe SF was that much worse off from an inventory perspective until now.

It also seems plausible that SF has a unique combination of factors that put it in a bad spot right now. It’s insanely expensive, quality of life has been on the decline for some time, and the types of companies that made real estate there so expensive in the first place are also likely to be the ones that adopt remote work quickly and wholeheartedly.

SF aside, my best guess at this point is that many American cities are and will continue to actually see some amount of people leaving for lower cost and more spacious markets, especially if remote work optionality sticks in the way it looks like it will. But cities have enduring appeal - proximity to people and culture and things to do is just as much a factor as proximity to work. I think any exodus we see in most markets will amount mostly to a pull-forward of people who would have left cities anyway because of life stage, but did it a year or two early if they could.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#25
post #21

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

Property taxes in California are among the lowest in the nation.

And the income tax is by far the highest, currently at 13.3% compared to 2nd place Hawaii’s 11%. Sales tax averages to 8.5%, good for 9th highest in the country.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#26
post #21

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

Property taxes in California are among the lowest in the nation.

Property taxes are not that relevant for the masses who can't afford to buy property.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#27
post #23

It’s odd they don’t mention the sky high taxes in California as a driving force for the exodus and the fact the Gavin Newsom wants to raise them even more to cover Covid shortages. There’s only so much you can squeeze out of people before they’ll pack up an go.

Wouldn't this then also be true of LA or San Jose, both mentioned in the article? It feels like you have a politcal axe to grind and came here to the comments before reading the article.

I am not sure I follow. It seems plausible that the sky-high taxes are a major motivator for people wanting to leave CA but a recent change in SF made it possible for people to move to a different state (e.g., Twitter and FB allowing permanent remote work and Google working remotely into 2021).

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#28
post #20

Whenever I see % increase as a headline you can be confident that its using percentages in order to make a misleading point. Sure enough a few paragraphs down: > It should be noted that San Francisco had an unusually low inventory relative to other large cities prior to the pandemic. Maybe there are a lot of people selling, but you can ignore this particular stat.

I’m not sure it’s reasonable to entirely ignore a statistic because it could be skewed by other factors. There’s no quick way to directly measure the net outflow, so if we want to anticipate the problem in advance potentially misleading data is all we’ve got.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#29
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Property taxes in California are among the lowest in the nation.

Property taxes are not that relevant for the masses who can't afford to buy property.

But...that’s who this article is discussing: homeowners who are listing their properties for sale in higher numbers.

Re: Remote work is reshaping San Francisco, as tech workers flee and rents fall

#30
post #27
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wouldn't this then also be true of LA or San Jose, both mentioned in the article? It feels like you have a politcal axe to grind and came here to the comments before reading the article.

I am not sure I follow. It seems plausible that the sky-high taxes are a major motivator for people wanting to leave CA but a recent change in SF made it possible for people to move to a different state (e.g., Twitter and FB allowing permanent remote work and Google working remotely into 2021).

Poster was suggesting high state taxes were to blame, but if that was true, one would also expect that trend to extend to other cities in the same state. If it’s due to remote workers as you suggest, then it should also apply to cities with a high population of tech workers and headquarters like San Jose. According to the article, it doesn’t. This makes the state tax argument hard to defend.
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