Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#271

Post by _red » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:50 PM UTC

jsolson wrote: post #238

F-0X wrote: post #225

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I am going to side with VW on this. I have always been skeptical of fully autonomous vehicles, and I do not believe they will _ever_ exist on the roads that currently stand. Driving safely in all conditions without aid from a human is simply too complex a task for code that can be audited and verified. If some AI model that's been trained on a billion years of driving experience shows promise, but it is some…

You may not be getting in that car, but I certainly will. After all, every driver on the road today is an incomprehensible black box where not only do we not know the parameters, we don't even know the function they're parameterizing. Every instance functions differently, and our testing procedures have woefully low coverage.

how do you see insurance working? why would drivers be responsible to have insurance when the car is completely controlled by bigcorp programmers?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#272

Post by mytailorisrich » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

All of this discussion on smart infrastructure is moot, imho, because it won't be guaranteed to be there on all roads and cars will have to be designed to work even when the smart infrastructure breaks down.

So this means that self-driving cars will have to safely handle these cases and that also means that it is likely that cars will have to still be able to be driven manually.

Bottom line: self-driving cars will have to handle absence of smart infrastructure (in which case do we really need that infrastructure? I think we'll still need it, though, to guide and improve traffic)) and/or cars will continue to be driven manually at least some of the time.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#273

Post by bpfrh » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

einrealist wrote: post #257

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

I would argue that signing beacon messages with a PKI infrastructure would migate that issue.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#274

Post by HereBeBeasties » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:51 PM UTC

senordevnyc wrote: post #248

threeseed wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I actually think autonomous taxi services will be niche. Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. Now the liability for that behaviour is with the driver. In an autonomous car the liability would be Uber which is why they won't do it. An Uber that needs to look for parking in order to pick you up is never going to work in most busy…

Think about Uber cars today. Their entire value proposition centres around them breaking parking laws in order to pick you up. I take Uber and Lyft in NYC multiple times per week. No one ever “parks”, they just pull up, you jump in, and off you go. Takes less than a minute in most cases, doesn’t block traffic, and I suspect it virtually never results in a ticket. Maybe if they sit there for 10 minutes or more, but th…

Umm, that is is point though - with autonomy the cars presumably won't break the law and stop where it's technically illegal for 30s to pick you up. They will presumably need to find somewhere legal to park to do so.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#275

Post by mavhc » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:52 PM UTC

einrealist wrote: post #257

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

I am more fearful of trolls, tricking the technology. I doubt, that the software / hardware will have a common sense, like we humans have. Its this common sense that keeps us alive in unexpected scenarios, like when the paint on the road is missing.

Still better than humans, humans kill 3000 people using vehicles every day, and most of those aren't even trying

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#276

Post by tripa » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

mavhc wrote: post #270

Rhinobird wrote: post #259

Earlier quoted context omitted.

all fun and games until some jack-ass spoofs the GPS and moves a road 20 feet to the left. https://www.wired.com/2012/07/drone-hijacking/

That's the point though, the Waymo car doesn't rely on gps, it's has HD maps on board. Plus is has dead reckoning because it's touching the ground, so it knows where it's moving.

Not sure I get your point.

Having atom-resolution maps doesn't help a bit it you don't know where on it you are.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#277

Post by _red » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:54 PM UTC

macinjosh wrote: post #221

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

There are millions of miles of roads just in the US that will never have that sort of infrastructure because the cost of keeping beacons running and marking in place would be astronomical. Sure maybe California will have some of that around big population areas but that's probably about it. What happens to all these markings when it snows a couple centimeters?' Fully self driving cars won't happen in our lifetime, pr…

its not only lines on the road though:

Imagine you are following a pickup-truck and out of the back an obviously empty box floats out of the bed and lands directly in front of your car.

For a human its trivial to know the box is empty and its ok to hit it....does "AI" know that?

Multiply that case x1000 and you have the conditions self-driving cars will need to handle on a daily basis.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#278

Post by dmortin » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:55 PM UTC

gambiting wrote: post #235

dmortin wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the taxi is soiled then the next passenger indicates this via the app. The taxi is sent for cleaning and the previous passenger is charged for the cleaning. Also, there will be cameras inside in case it has to be proven who made the car dirty. If people have to pay the cleaning bill they will be careful not to make a mess.

That sounds horrendous, honestly.

You won't have to use the service, but if you do then companies will have to have a way to protect the service from abusers.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#279

Post by AngryData » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:56 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

If it is on asphalt roads you can easily embed wires and electronics underneath the surface by heating it up. And an embedded wire would be both easy for a computer to track and easy to fix or replace.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#280

Post by anotheruser2020 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:56 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

I like driving, I also like the assistance that modern vehicles provide on Motorways, however, would I ever fully hand over control? Probably not. A Boeing 747 has autopilot.. however 3 pilots sit behind hit to keep an eye on what it's doing.