Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen' • Hacker News Board

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#221

Post by macinjosh » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

There are millions of miles of roads just in the US that will never have that sort of infrastructure because the cost of keeping beacons running and marking in place would be astronomical. Sure maybe California will have some of that around big population areas but that's probably about it.

What happens to all these markings when it snows a couple centimeters?'

Fully self driving cars won't happen in our lifetime, probably not this century.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#222

Post by nexuist » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

Same as usual for the past few decades: private capital that funds existing and upcoming startups, who will deploy proprietary smart infrastructure and allow users to connect to it probably through some monthly subscription service.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#223

Post by crdoconnor » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

sverhagen wrote: post #205

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

To give access to a very lucrative business endeavor? Someone would come up with the investment. We put a nice canape of cell towers too, or wired up every home for internet, after doing it for cable TV, after doing it for electricity. No one really frowns much at those economics anymore (in big parts of the world at least).

It's also a business endeavour that's done a lot of bragging about the number of people it will render jobless. It's not going to be an easy political sell to erect lots of additional road furniture unless it's cheap and unobtrusive.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#224

Post by Sharlin » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

sverhagen wrote: post #205

semi-extrinsic wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We can't even bloody keep the yellow markings on the road visible, and "paint" is a technology we've had for thousands of years. Where in dog's name is the money for installing and maintaining all that smart infrastructure going to come from?

To give access to a very lucrative business endeavor? Someone would come up with the investment. We put a nice canape of cell towers too, or wired up every home for internet, after doing it for cable TV, after doing it for electricity. No one really frowns much at those economics anymore (in big parts of the world at least).

Privatized roads?

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#225

Post by F-0X » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:27 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

I think I am going to side with VW on this. I have always been skeptical of fully autonomous vehicles, and I do not believe they will _ever_ exist on the roads that currently stand. Driving safely in all conditions without aid from a human is simply too complex a task for code that can be audited and verified. If some AI model that's been trained on a billion years of driving experience shows promise, but it is some incomprehensible black box of weights, I won't be getting in that car.

Autonomous vehicles will only ever truly exist upon infrastructure literally designed to aid them, greatly simplifying how they need to interact with the environment, thus making the problem tractable with code we can prove works. I really think it will take more than putting markings on existing roads. It is going to take new roads full stop, probably with various wireless checkpoints built into them.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#226

Post by celeritascelery » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:28 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #109

I think he is the one and only sane C-level person in the industry, after hearing this. People claiming most of AI hype barely know what the "AI" people mention is. And people who go as far as drawing rosy pictures of human like general AI being your personal chauffeur are past ridiculous. The entire idea of human-like general AI for practical applications is like trying to make people using horses for transport in 2…

Agreed. I have running bet with fellow at work who owns a Tesla about when we will have self driving cars. He keeps telling me the AI revolution is just around the corner. Still waiting.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#227

Post by Noos » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:28 PM UTC

njarboe wrote: post #118

Noos wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the deaths will be network level effects that a person would be helpless to mitigate through behavior. There's no sense of being a careful or responsible driver with a self-driving car; its all whether or not the algorithm or software is correct. It's a different type of potential error and a much more scary one. I can mitigate human drivers as a pedestrian by taking care walking, but I cannot mitigate an AI…

Because a jury will hand out a huge multi-million dollar award against a self-driving car company when its car crashes causing a death, while when a human causes a death it is usually just an "accident" or a much smaller settlement based on the person's insurance coverage.

Because the autonomous car is a systematic issue that could affect every single car on the road using that manufacturer's software, and the "driver" of the car has no way to stop or mitigate the risk, or cause risk. He puts his life in the company's hands each time he drives the vehicle.

I'm not sure why people even embrace self-driving cars. By now we know that centralization, lack of maintenance, and fragmentation in software are serious risks, as well as how software can increase the attack vector on people as well as provide benefit. I'm not sure if the risks are worth the modest efficiency increase, and this isn't even getting into existential risks like external parties being able to control when you drive, or attacks on the networks or technology.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#228

Post by femto113 » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

robbrown451 wrote: post #51

wwweston wrote: post #32

Opinion: level 5 autonomy would be cool, but it's not where most of the value of self-driving cars is. Most of the value in being able to travel by auto without attention is in trips longer than 15 minutes. Commutes, tourism, vacations. Shipping. Most of which is certainly highway driving. If it's possible to automate highway driving under most conditions (and safely transition either to a stop or human-piloting when…

I have to disagree. Most of the value is in taxi services, where you get dropped off / picked up exactly where you want, there is no need to dedicate so much land and structures to parking, there is no need to have cars sit idle for 95% of their existence, and no need to search for parking spots and walk long distances. Of course, I live in a city, where parking is a major pain. But the other things still hold. It it…

> It it far more efficient of resources to have cars be used most fo the day, rather than sitting idle.

This is better and more easily addressed by car sharing services like car2go than autonomous cars. The more I use them the more I wish for a world where every car was shareable: you need to go somewhere? you simply get into the nearest parked car and drive it to where you want to go. And, unlike autonomy, there are no technical barriers to this, only the will to do it and the economic model to sustain it. Sadly these services seem to be in full retreat now but I will miss them and still hope they'll rise again soon.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#229

Post by macinjosh » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

wnevets wrote: post #209

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

> but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way Multiple important stake holders seem to have significant incentives to make this happen. Local/state govs want less traffic jams and crashes, auto insurance companies would love to collect premiums and not pay out, Uber, Lyft would love to get rid of their drivers

I want an oceanside villa on the dark side of the moon but that's doesn't mean it will happen. Just because there is motivation to do something doesn't mean it is possible.

Re: Volkswagen exec admits full self-driving cars 'may never happen'

#230

Post by derefr » Sat, Jan 18, 2020, 9:29 PM UTC

colordrops wrote: post #165

I agree in part in that I am skeptical that full self-driving cars will happen in the next few years, but he is completely wrong when it comes to the long term. Not only will the tech get as good as humans, but most forget to account for the fact that the environment will meet the cars part way. We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the…

> We will eventually update markings and beacons on the roads to make it easier for the cars, implement networks in which the cars can talk to each other, and make special lanes for self-driving cars only, among other improvements that will make it easier for the cars.

I feel like the correct way to describe this future isn't "self-driving cars", but rather "personal autonomous trains." In est, the road system described here would just be a rather clumsy railroad network.

I interpret the goal of having "self-driving cars" as referring to the ability to have a passenger vehicles that can autonomously navigate (wayfind?) off-road, i.e. what the aim of the DARPA Grand Challenge would eventually evolve into.